The Election across the UK have now finished, AV has been beaten into the ground, Scotland has it's first majority Government and one party faced what could only be described as all-out destruction.. so now that the dust is settling how did all the multitude of parties do and what of their Leaders?
Conservatives
The Senior Partner of the ConDem Coalition had a somewhat unusual electoral period. Their peculiar results were an odd mix of bad and good across the Isle of Great Britain (their NI council results aren't known yet)
England - Across the English Councils the Tory Party found itself with a net gain of 81 new councillors, this crop of new councillors brought gifts however, in the shape of overall control of 4 councils. An unusual result as the Tories are a party in Government and were expecting a bloody nose. The results would suggest that the Liberal Democrats were the political equivalent of a yellow Flak jacket for the party of Blue.
Scotland - The Westminster party lost a quarter of it's Holyrood seats during the SNP charge. Some pundits are already questioning the future of the Scottish Tories as a credible fore in Scotland, but the Prime Minister will be gearing up to clash with Salmond and will need his small band of Scot-Tories to help chip away at the SNP.
Wales - Net gains of 2 in the Welsh Assembly have allowed the Conservatives to ascend to Second place with the Welsh Assembly. Unfortunately the loss of their Leader due to their own success was a bit of a blow and the rise of Welsh Labour has taken any chance of a Rainbow Coalition.
David Cameron - The Prime Minister may have been able to walk away with a score of 3 (AV, England, Wales) out of a possible 4 win he could take back to Tory HQ, but faced with a parliamentary secure Alex Salmond and a likely despondent Liberal Democrat Party he will face some further hurdles in the year ahead.
Labour
Labour's results were as mixed as the Tories, not least because of their divided stance on the issue of AV.
England - 800 new councillors bolstered Labour's ranks and 26 councils came with them, so a good haul for the party of opposition. The Labour Party made light work of the Liberal Democrats showing the Junior Coalition partner what a big party could do.
Scotland - A disappointing Scottish election for the Labour party in what should be a heartland. The rise of Salmond to overall control of Scotland has forced Iain Grey to resign and the party found themselves down 7 seats at the end of the night. A charismatic leader will be needed to engage with Salmond, and they'd better find one quick.
Wales - Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Labour Party took half the seats in the Welsh Assembly a definite win for them but will it be enough to keep control of Wales. Initial reports suggest they are going to try and enter some sort of agreement with another party, whether that will be another Coalition remains to be seen.
Ed Miliband - 'Red Ed' can not really claim the election as a win for himself at the end of the Day, he backed AV, which failed, He made the Scottish Election about Westminster, which backfired, In England he ripped apart a weak Liberal Democrat Party and in Wales most of the leadership was done by First Minister Jones..so while mixed for the Labour Party 'Red Ed' may still be in trouble.
Liberal Democrats
Bloody, Broken, Beaten, Destroyed, Hammered, Demolished or Annihilated.. the list of ways to describe the Liberal Democrat performance is longer than this and any blog post in history could handle.
England - Almost 700 councillors and 9 councils were lost, the Liberal Democrats, torn apart by an electorate who quickly withdrew to the Labour and Conservative camps, have been decimated in England. It could take many years for the Lib Dems to recover their seats, though the Green now seems to be the new yellow.
Scotland - A double hitter as the Scot-Libdems lose 12 seats and their Leader Tavish Scott hands in his resignation, blaming the Coalition for the losses as he goes.
Wales - For three election the Liberal Democrats maintained 6 seats, now they only have 5, a glimmer of hope remains that labour will choose them as a Welsh Coalition partner which may redeem them in the Welsh Electorate's eyes.
Nick Clegg - 'King-Maker Clegg' may have to make a choice, stay in coalition but give up leadership or head to opposition and hope for the best. Disappointing.
Scottish National Party (SNP)
The SNP are perhaps on e of the biggest winner in this election. Gaining overall control of Scotland was no easy feat but somehow Alex Salmond managed it. The SNP will now have to be careful, there is no easy excuse like that available to them as a minority government and they will have to be smart in dealing with Prime Minister Cameron, but a very weaken and in 2/3 of cases leaderless opposition will make the SNP start of term a bit easier.
Alex Salmond - The First Minster now has overall control of Scotland, but his determination for Independence may cause him problems, especially with David Cameron as his main opponent who has not only been unscathed by the election but perhaps even in a stronger position despite the loss of a few Scottish seats.
Plaid Cymru
The Welsh Nationalists have lost their number 2 place to the Tories after losing four seats and in the elections that saw Scottish Nationalism rise the Welsh Nationalist will have to consider their future, and elect a new Deputy Leader.
Ieuan Wyn Jones - The Plaid Cymru Leader may be at the end of his reign, he brought his party into government as a Junior Coalition partner and like the Lib Dems he paid a price for it.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
The DUP are one of the big winners in these election, they may have only gained two seats but their party and leader have recovered from a somewhat disappointing performance last year.
Peter Robinson - Alex Salmond isn't the only Leader to be elevated by the election, First Minster Robinson has been received as the new Champion of Unionism for his positive and well fought campaign and considering what his position was like last year it is a startling turn around.
Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein only managed a gain of one seat and have considered this somewhat disappointing as they could have achieved more but for some mistake in their vote management strategy.
Martin McGuinness - Mr McGuinness will continue his role as Deputy First Minister but may face an annoyance from the newly elected Jim Allister
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
The UUP found themselves down two seats and their leader followed that up by calling some people with flags 'scum'
Tom Elliot -Mr Elliot saw orange after the election and attacked Sinn Fein supporters, his position as leader will most likely depends on whether or not he take the UUP into opposition.
Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP)
The SDLP found themselves Down two seats as well like the UUP and find themselves pondering leaving the executive
Margaret Ritchie - The newly crowned SDLP leader may be already in trouble of having to consider her position.
Alliance
The Alliance Party made a gain and may get an executive seat, but trouble lies ahead in regards to the justice ministry and a rather annoyed UUP.
David Ford- Mr. Ford will have to take care when handling the exectuive seat hand-out but otherwise is doing well.
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)
The party that some said may split open Unionism only managed to scrape one seat and essentially replaced the PUP as the minority Unionist Party. Their future will be in serious doubt.
Jim Allister - Unable to actually achieve the quota, Mr Allister will have a rough entrance into the Assembly, his only hope is that the UUP go into opposition and want his help to attack the DUP/Sinn Fein
Green
The green maintained in Northern Ireland and gained a seat in Scotland along with a batch of new councillors they had a very successful election though they have yet to break into the Welsh scene in a meaningful way.
They have several leaders who will all take a little something from this election.
United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
Failings in strategy led to no gains across the board for UKIP.
Nigel Farage - Nigel can only hope to build on the votes he got and take them forward to the next Euro Election.
British National Party (BNP)
One of the losers of the Election, the BNP lost a large number of councillors and made no gain in the Celtic fringe.
Nick Griffin - The BNP was in trouble before the election and seems to be circling the drain.
Conclusion - Alex Salmond and Peter Robinson are the big winners, Red Ed and King-maker Clegg are going to have to step up if they want to stay in the game.
Showing posts with label Labour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Labour. Show all posts
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Thursday, 10 February 2011
Labour vs Ieuan Wyn Jones
A day after I post about the possibility about a ConDem Coalition in Scotland the One Wales Government suffered a mini-implosion.
The Clash between Labour and the Plaid Cymru Leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, has thrown some added dimensions to the upcoming Welsh Assembly Elections. Labour has said that a One Wales Government, Mark 2 isn't the only option after the election.
Evidence of why Labour seem so confident that they will not need Plaid can be seen in current opinion polls. (See the Wikipedia page on the Welsh Assembly election) Currently Labour Are sitting on 45% in the Constituency polls and 40% in the regional polls, to put that in perspective Labour won 26 seats last election with 32.2% and 29.6% of popular support, so thats an increase in support of 12.8% and 10.4% already. Labour likely believe that if they can maintain their ratings, continue to attack the Westminster Coalition and reach out to disaffect Liberal Democrat Supporters, they can gain the 5 seats they need to have majority control of the Assembly. This would obviously destroy any threat of a Plaid-led 'Rainbow Coalition'.
The attack on Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones, was a very targeted one however, it wasn't against Plaid, simply Jones' apparent mismanagement of his economic brief. Possibly if Labour find themselves needing the support of Plaid, they will ask that Plaid remove Ieuan Wyn Jones in a Clegg-Style demand for Coalition or at the very least remove him from the Economic Brief.
Labour or ConDem?
This argument helps highlight the position that the Deputy First Minister may find himself in come, May. Should the arithmetic make a Plaid Led Government a possibility, Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to choose whether to remain as Junior Partner to Labour or strike a deal with the ConDems. It is highly unlikely that Plaid will make the 4 seat gains that they would require to only need one party to form a Coalition with (which would be the Tories) especially considering Labour's Commanding Lead in the Opinion Polls.
Plaid will most likely back One Wales Mark 2 rather than Condem support, the question is, will it be Ieuan Wyn Jones who carries on leading the Welsh Nationalists?
The Clash between Labour and the Plaid Cymru Leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, has thrown some added dimensions to the upcoming Welsh Assembly Elections. Labour has said that a One Wales Government, Mark 2 isn't the only option after the election.
Evidence of why Labour seem so confident that they will not need Plaid can be seen in current opinion polls. (See the Wikipedia page on the Welsh Assembly election) Currently Labour Are sitting on 45% in the Constituency polls and 40% in the regional polls, to put that in perspective Labour won 26 seats last election with 32.2% and 29.6% of popular support, so thats an increase in support of 12.8% and 10.4% already. Labour likely believe that if they can maintain their ratings, continue to attack the Westminster Coalition and reach out to disaffect Liberal Democrat Supporters, they can gain the 5 seats they need to have majority control of the Assembly. This would obviously destroy any threat of a Plaid-led 'Rainbow Coalition'.
The attack on Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones, was a very targeted one however, it wasn't against Plaid, simply Jones' apparent mismanagement of his economic brief. Possibly if Labour find themselves needing the support of Plaid, they will ask that Plaid remove Ieuan Wyn Jones in a Clegg-Style demand for Coalition or at the very least remove him from the Economic Brief.
Labour or ConDem?
This argument helps highlight the position that the Deputy First Minister may find himself in come, May. Should the arithmetic make a Plaid Led Government a possibility, Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to choose whether to remain as Junior Partner to Labour or strike a deal with the ConDems. It is highly unlikely that Plaid will make the 4 seat gains that they would require to only need one party to form a Coalition with (which would be the Tories) especially considering Labour's Commanding Lead in the Opinion Polls.
Plaid will most likely back One Wales Mark 2 rather than Condem support, the question is, will it be Ieuan Wyn Jones who carries on leading the Welsh Nationalists?
Wednesday, 9 February 2011
Scottish Government Budget Passed
Today (9/2/11) the SNP minority administration passed the last budget before the Scottish parliamentary elections on May 5th.
ConDems Support Nationalists?
With every passing year of SNP the Scottish budget has been subjected to the same political horse-trading. This budget however is special, other than being potentially the SNP's last Budget for a while should they lose the election but also how they passed it.
In the lead up to the passing of the Budget, the general consensus among the media was that the most likely outcome would be Labour/Green Opposition to the bill, Conservative support and the Liberal Democrat abstaining. Though Labour and the Green Party did indeed oppose the Budget (having not achieved any/enough of the concessions they wanted) both the Liberal Democrats and Tories backed the SNP budget (with a few of their concessions picked up)
There have been rumours floating through various articles that the SNP/Tory reluctance to possibly working closer in Holyrood has been weakening. Perhaps the Coalition has presented the Tories with a new found respect for the benefits of Coalition government, and with the potential change to AV voting for Westminster, Coalitions may become the order of business.
It is the Liberal Democrats support for the Budget that is most surprising. Having achieved some concessions they could have simply abstained and allowed the budget to have gone through with Tory support. In the spirit of Tactical Politics here is some Points of Analysis
1) ConDem Bleed Effect - The ConDem Coalition hope to introduce 5 year fixed term parliaments and the Devolved Governments run on 4 year life cycles. As it stand the current Westminster parliament and the Next Devolved governments will all hold elections at the same time in 2015. This ConDem support for the SNP could be a hint at a possible expansion of the Coalition work together until 2015 in both levels of Government. If The ConDem Coalition can do a deal with the Celtic Bloc it would make the implementation of their policies much easier without a Labour-Led Welsh Government and SNP Minority Government making life difficult. This raises another question, if the Coalition is entering Celtic politics, will The Celtic Bloc be joining the Westminster Coalition?
2) Liberal Democrats Election Strategy - The Liberal Democrat leadership is always quick to point out that thye operate as a separate party from the Conservatives, but going into elections having just joined with the Tories to back the SNP's budget, shoots the argument in the foot. While yes, it could be argued that the Liberal Democrats supported the Budget because they achieved the concessions they wanted, surely they could have simply abstained and then have been able to have portrayed the SNP as making the bed for a SNP/Tory coalition after May 5th. This may not have helped the Lib Dem vote recover but it would have damaged the SNP nationalist credentials and perhaps pushed some support to the pro-independence parties like Solidarity and split the votes.
3) Labour and the Greens? - Labour and the Greens may have received either a very late or incredibly early Christmas present. The Scottish Greens have in the past offered a level of support to the SNP, but recently they seem to be arguing more with their Pro-Independence Brethren. With the Election of their first MP and possible collapse in Student Lib Dem support the Greens and Labour could pick up more votes than they normally would. While it is unlikely that the Greens and Labour would enter Coalition, perhaps the Greens will offer a level of support to Labour rather than the SNP. Labour need to use this to their advantage and hit out at the SNP hard, should they come out on top of the May 5th election but lack a majority or a share of the seats in which the support of the Greens or Independents wouldn't give them a majority they will find it near impossible to do anything as it is unlikely the ConDems or SNP would give support without huge concessions.
There are many many things that could be gleaned from the Budget, but one thing is for certain, the Horse-trading has just begun.
Please Comment with any thoughts.
ConDems Support Nationalists?
With every passing year of SNP the Scottish budget has been subjected to the same political horse-trading. This budget however is special, other than being potentially the SNP's last Budget for a while should they lose the election but also how they passed it.
In the lead up to the passing of the Budget, the general consensus among the media was that the most likely outcome would be Labour/Green Opposition to the bill, Conservative support and the Liberal Democrat abstaining. Though Labour and the Green Party did indeed oppose the Budget (having not achieved any/enough of the concessions they wanted) both the Liberal Democrats and Tories backed the SNP budget (with a few of their concessions picked up)
There have been rumours floating through various articles that the SNP/Tory reluctance to possibly working closer in Holyrood has been weakening. Perhaps the Coalition has presented the Tories with a new found respect for the benefits of Coalition government, and with the potential change to AV voting for Westminster, Coalitions may become the order of business.
It is the Liberal Democrats support for the Budget that is most surprising. Having achieved some concessions they could have simply abstained and allowed the budget to have gone through with Tory support. In the spirit of Tactical Politics here is some Points of Analysis
1) ConDem Bleed Effect - The ConDem Coalition hope to introduce 5 year fixed term parliaments and the Devolved Governments run on 4 year life cycles. As it stand the current Westminster parliament and the Next Devolved governments will all hold elections at the same time in 2015. This ConDem support for the SNP could be a hint at a possible expansion of the Coalition work together until 2015 in both levels of Government. If The ConDem Coalition can do a deal with the Celtic Bloc it would make the implementation of their policies much easier without a Labour-Led Welsh Government and SNP Minority Government making life difficult. This raises another question, if the Coalition is entering Celtic politics, will The Celtic Bloc be joining the Westminster Coalition?
2) Liberal Democrats Election Strategy - The Liberal Democrat leadership is always quick to point out that thye operate as a separate party from the Conservatives, but going into elections having just joined with the Tories to back the SNP's budget, shoots the argument in the foot. While yes, it could be argued that the Liberal Democrats supported the Budget because they achieved the concessions they wanted, surely they could have simply abstained and then have been able to have portrayed the SNP as making the bed for a SNP/Tory coalition after May 5th. This may not have helped the Lib Dem vote recover but it would have damaged the SNP nationalist credentials and perhaps pushed some support to the pro-independence parties like Solidarity and split the votes.
3) Labour and the Greens? - Labour and the Greens may have received either a very late or incredibly early Christmas present. The Scottish Greens have in the past offered a level of support to the SNP, but recently they seem to be arguing more with their Pro-Independence Brethren. With the Election of their first MP and possible collapse in Student Lib Dem support the Greens and Labour could pick up more votes than they normally would. While it is unlikely that the Greens and Labour would enter Coalition, perhaps the Greens will offer a level of support to Labour rather than the SNP. Labour need to use this to their advantage and hit out at the SNP hard, should they come out on top of the May 5th election but lack a majority or a share of the seats in which the support of the Greens or Independents wouldn't give them a majority they will find it near impossible to do anything as it is unlikely the ConDems or SNP would give support without huge concessions.
There are many many things that could be gleaned from the Budget, but one thing is for certain, the Horse-trading has just begun.
Please Comment with any thoughts.
Barnsley Central By-Election
Eric Illsley has resigned his seat two days before he is due to be sentenced, so let's bring on By-Election Number 2.
Like the Old and Sad by-election Barnsley Central is a Labour seat and with a majority of over 11000 it is unlikely that Labour will lose this one either. Instead this by-election will probably be focused on two other aspects.
Conservative vs Liberal Democrats
The first will be the behaviour of the Conservative and Liberal Democrats camps going into this one. At the 2010 General Election they were only 6 votes apart, so a soft campaign by the Tories is not really an option with the margin being so small between 2nd and 3rd place. Having maintained the Liberal Democrat vote in the Old/sad By-election the Coalition should take the view that the Lib Dems have had time to recover and this election should be fought as hard as possible to demonstrate not only that the parties are different (to silence more merger talk) but also to show that the Lib Dems do not require an easy ride from the Tories.
The Other Guys
As with any By-election little media attention will be paid to the fight for 4th place. The BNP came fourth in the General Election, Followed by UKIP. With the recent internal problems that have plagued the BNP and being pushed by UKIP into 5th in Oldham, the BNP will need a strong showing to prove that they are still in the game, especially so close to Local and Assembly elections. Otherwise UKIP may finally be able to garner enough support to make significant gains come May, which with their new Millionaire supporter will be much easier to do.
I would suggest that as many of the smaller/minor parties should run in this election, as it will provide an excellent opportunity for publicity in the lead up to the Local election in England. Parties such as the Libertarians, Liberals, SDP, Greens, English Democrats and Pirate should attempt to run. In the case of the Left wing parties of which there are a multitude, I would suggest backing a left unity candidate, perhaps a Trade Unionist and Socialist Candidate (TUSC) so as to gather a bit more attention for the left wing candidates who may have a chance in Scotland come May.
Like the Old and Sad by-election Barnsley Central is a Labour seat and with a majority of over 11000 it is unlikely that Labour will lose this one either. Instead this by-election will probably be focused on two other aspects.
Conservative vs Liberal Democrats
The first will be the behaviour of the Conservative and Liberal Democrats camps going into this one. At the 2010 General Election they were only 6 votes apart, so a soft campaign by the Tories is not really an option with the margin being so small between 2nd and 3rd place. Having maintained the Liberal Democrat vote in the Old/sad By-election the Coalition should take the view that the Lib Dems have had time to recover and this election should be fought as hard as possible to demonstrate not only that the parties are different (to silence more merger talk) but also to show that the Lib Dems do not require an easy ride from the Tories.
The Other Guys
As with any By-election little media attention will be paid to the fight for 4th place. The BNP came fourth in the General Election, Followed by UKIP. With the recent internal problems that have plagued the BNP and being pushed by UKIP into 5th in Oldham, the BNP will need a strong showing to prove that they are still in the game, especially so close to Local and Assembly elections. Otherwise UKIP may finally be able to garner enough support to make significant gains come May, which with their new Millionaire supporter will be much easier to do.
I would suggest that as many of the smaller/minor parties should run in this election, as it will provide an excellent opportunity for publicity in the lead up to the Local election in England. Parties such as the Libertarians, Liberals, SDP, Greens, English Democrats and Pirate should attempt to run. In the case of the Left wing parties of which there are a multitude, I would suggest backing a left unity candidate, perhaps a Trade Unionist and Socialist Candidate (TUSC) so as to gather a bit more attention for the left wing candidates who may have a chance in Scotland come May.
Sunday, 6 February 2011
Return of the Left-Wing?
With the Irish General election confirmed for the end of February and the Celtic Elections set for May 5th, an old force hopes to make a comeback.
United Left Alliance and Sinn Fein
In Ireland Fianna Fail looks guaranteed to haemorrhage seats in the Dail, while this spells good news for the Labour Party and Fine Gael it is the parties of the Hard-Left that look set to make gains.
Sinn Fein currently sitting with 5 seats in the Dail hope to at least double their seat numbers with the presence of Baron Gerry Adams and a disenfranchised electorate. Pointing to Northern Ireland to show that they can deal with handling budgets which limits are dictated by an external force, Sinn Fein will hope that if they make enough gain the other parties will have to consider them a viable coalition partner. Baron Adams has been firm in stating that coalition negotiations should wait till after the election, though stating he would not work with as a junior partner to the right wing parties of Fianna fail and Fine Gael. It can only be assumed that Baron Adams envisions a Labour-Led coalition of the Left to deal with the EU/IMF and the Irish financial situation. To do this however would require a bit more help however...
United Left Alliance
The ULA, featuring the Socialist Party, the People Before Profit Alliance, and the Workers and Unemployed Action Group and a few former Labour Party members will be fielding 19 candidates. They hope to establish enough seats to alter the assumed Fine Gael-Labour government in March. Much like Sinn Fein they do not wish to see the continuation of Irish politics being headed by either Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
The potential Left wing government in Ireland would be historic, however it does suffer from several flaws in the theory. Firstly, the Labour Party are not keen on working with Sinn Fein, so unless Labour and the ULA gain enough seats to form a Coalition Labour may have to make a decision, the Hard-Left Republican Sinn Fein, Headed by Baron Adams or the battered Fianna Fail, led by former Foreign minister Michael Martin (could easily ask for his old job then). Both choice difficult, with Sinn Fein being seen as Radical and Fianna Fail being seen as the cause of a lot of the problems facing the Republic.
There is one scenario a Left-Labour Government could come about;
1) Labour become Largest/Second Largest party against Fine Gael
2) ULA makes some gains (first election for ULA)
3) Green Party maintains it seats
4) Independents (who do better than in British elections) make gains
5) Deal struck with either Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein
Depending on seat wins Gilmore could come out as Taoiseach with either Michael Martin or Baron Adams as Deputy
This however is not the only chance of a Left Resurgence, Scotland promises to attempt a fightback for the Left-wing.
George Galloway
The Firebrand, Maverick Left Winger, George Galloway hopes to lead the Left Wing back into Holyrood after a 4 year exile. With the imprisonment of Solidarity Leader Tommy Sheridan, not only have there been talks of Solidarity standing with George Galloway on a joint slate in Glasgow but also the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), has reached out to it's splinter, Solidarity, with an offer for reconciliation.
If a Joint left ticket could be agreed (and agreed for the whole of Scotland) The Left wing parties could make their way into the Scottish Parliament. While up against some stiff competition from Labour and the SNP who will no doubt be brawling for control, a sudden Left Wing presence could be a god-send for the SNP with the arrival of so many pro-independence Left-wingers.
Only time will tell if the Left-wing parties can manage to regain a foothold in the political make-up of the UK, but it will definitely make for an interesitng element in the elections.
United Left Alliance and Sinn Fein
In Ireland Fianna Fail looks guaranteed to haemorrhage seats in the Dail, while this spells good news for the Labour Party and Fine Gael it is the parties of the Hard-Left that look set to make gains.
Sinn Fein currently sitting with 5 seats in the Dail hope to at least double their seat numbers with the presence of Baron Gerry Adams and a disenfranchised electorate. Pointing to Northern Ireland to show that they can deal with handling budgets which limits are dictated by an external force, Sinn Fein will hope that if they make enough gain the other parties will have to consider them a viable coalition partner. Baron Adams has been firm in stating that coalition negotiations should wait till after the election, though stating he would not work with as a junior partner to the right wing parties of Fianna fail and Fine Gael. It can only be assumed that Baron Adams envisions a Labour-Led coalition of the Left to deal with the EU/IMF and the Irish financial situation. To do this however would require a bit more help however...
United Left Alliance
The ULA, featuring the Socialist Party, the People Before Profit Alliance, and the Workers and Unemployed Action Group and a few former Labour Party members will be fielding 19 candidates. They hope to establish enough seats to alter the assumed Fine Gael-Labour government in March. Much like Sinn Fein they do not wish to see the continuation of Irish politics being headed by either Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
The potential Left wing government in Ireland would be historic, however it does suffer from several flaws in the theory. Firstly, the Labour Party are not keen on working with Sinn Fein, so unless Labour and the ULA gain enough seats to form a Coalition Labour may have to make a decision, the Hard-Left Republican Sinn Fein, Headed by Baron Adams or the battered Fianna Fail, led by former Foreign minister Michael Martin (could easily ask for his old job then). Both choice difficult, with Sinn Fein being seen as Radical and Fianna Fail being seen as the cause of a lot of the problems facing the Republic.
There is one scenario a Left-Labour Government could come about;
1) Labour become Largest/Second Largest party against Fine Gael
2) ULA makes some gains (first election for ULA)
3) Green Party maintains it seats
4) Independents (who do better than in British elections) make gains
5) Deal struck with either Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein
Depending on seat wins Gilmore could come out as Taoiseach with either Michael Martin or Baron Adams as Deputy
This however is not the only chance of a Left Resurgence, Scotland promises to attempt a fightback for the Left-wing.
George Galloway
The Firebrand, Maverick Left Winger, George Galloway hopes to lead the Left Wing back into Holyrood after a 4 year exile. With the imprisonment of Solidarity Leader Tommy Sheridan, not only have there been talks of Solidarity standing with George Galloway on a joint slate in Glasgow but also the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP), has reached out to it's splinter, Solidarity, with an offer for reconciliation.
If a Joint left ticket could be agreed (and agreed for the whole of Scotland) The Left wing parties could make their way into the Scottish Parliament. While up against some stiff competition from Labour and the SNP who will no doubt be brawling for control, a sudden Left Wing presence could be a god-send for the SNP with the arrival of so many pro-independence Left-wingers.
Only time will tell if the Left-wing parties can manage to regain a foothold in the political make-up of the UK, but it will definitely make for an interesitng element in the elections.
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
English Local Elections 2011 - New Year View
In May of this year, a large chunk of the local English councils, 36 Metropolitan boroughs, 194 Second-tier district authorities, 45 unitary authorities and various mayoral posts, will all be up for grabs.
As it stands at the moment, the Conservative Party controls about 46% of council seats in the UK with Labour on 21% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%. But since England lacks a devolved government of it's own (to the annoyance of the English Democrats) these elections will be the best chance for any of the smaller parties based in England to really make some gains.
Labour - For Labour they will be going into the English elections with some momentum having made gains during the 2010 local elections (+14 Councils and +414 Councillors) which ran parallel with the General Election. But they will be hoping to capitalise on the Spending Cuts made by the Coalition and the huge drop in Lib Dem support in the opinion polls to gain as many councils as they can. Apart from the obvious reason of wanting more seats to push their policies on a local level, a big win for Labour in the Local elections could be the push they need to de-stabilise the Liberal Democrats from the Coalition and dispel the argument that a new Lib/Lab/others coalition was anti-English as they could easily argue that the local elections show they have a good support among the English. For 'Red Ed' Miliband these elections are just as much a test of his leadership as the Devolved elections, as even when losing the General election Gordon Brown's Labour party still managed to make gains.(Current UK council standing - 4379 councillors, Rank: 2nd)
English Democrats - For the English Democrats, these elections have the same weight as the Scottish Parliament's are to the SNP or the Welsh Assembly's are to Plaid Cymru. Currently they hold 4 seats (1-Blackburn and Darwen, 1-Calderdale and 2-Peterborough) and the mayoralty of Doncaster but will be hoping that the 64000 votes they scored in the General election will carry on into the Councils which could see them make some nice gains for their party. If they make a significant enough gain to enter an Opposition or Coalition partner on a council it will be a real test for the bigger parties to deal with the growth in English Nationalism without alienating voters. A question which could effect English Democrat success is to whether or not the Alliance for Democracy, the electoral alliance between the EngDems, the Christian Party, the Jury Team and Veritas will still remain for the local election as they will then be able to pull their votes together to help each other in certain areas. (Current UK council standing: 4 Councillors, Rank: 26th
Respect - The Respect Party, most commonly known for it's former MP George Galloway, will be hoping to build on its local base having seen their Commons representation lost in the General Election. Having scored 0.1% (33251 votes) of the total UK vote in the General Election with only 10 candidates (over half the EngDem vote with a 1/10 of the candidates) and currently chalking up 13 councillors, the Respect Party is one which may see itself becoming more prominent in it's strongholds. The main problem for th party would be a sudden surge in labour support against the Coalition Government which could see their seats decrease. If they however can sttrike a deal with the Green party and perhaps the TUSC (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) they could benefit from the 'left of Labour' vote. (Current - 13 Councillors UK rank: 14th)
Liberal - The Liberal Party, a splinter from the birth of the Liberal Democrats, is one of the more successful small parties in council terms boasting 25 councillors at the moment. Although it doesn't sound huge it does put them ahead of UKIP (Second biggest Euro party and have two lord), the English Democrats, The Scottish Greens, (have 2 MSPs) Mebyon Kernow, The Libertarians and Respect (used to have an MP) to name a few. The Liberal Party are alos a prime candidate to take advantage of the anti-Libdem sentiment by offering a viable, non-Labour Liberal alternative. If they can organise a solid campaign they could look to gain a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats and perhaps encourage a few defections after the elections if the LibDems take a harsh beating from the electorate. They have had some dealings with the Alliance for Democracy, but it would only best wise to link up with other parties if they felt it would significantly boost their chance of winning seats as the Libdems are currently being punished for their own link-up with the Tories. (Current - 25 Councillors UK rank: 11th)
British National Party - The BNP, who are currently going through internal conflicts will be hoping to make some gains after taking a bit of a beating during the 2010 campaigns. For Nick Griffin whose current leadership and succession plans are under threat from internal factions will most likely hope to make some gains to show the party is still making ground but not enough to introduce to many possible contenders for his leadership, while he may be an MEP, a Euro-sceptic party may prefer to have their leader be the Leader of the Opposition on a local Council until they get enough votes to make it into the Commons.(Current - 55 Councillors UK rank 8th)
Green - The Green Party of England and Wales will be focused on Norwich and Norfolk where they have been slowly building a stronghold of votes and the Brighton and Hove City Council election where they are currently third on the council but where they elected their first MP. These local elections could be a chance to form some electoral pacts with other similarly inclined parties to help bolster a green-friendly bloc among councils. If the Greens fail to capitalise on the election of Caroline Lucas it will make her election seem more like a fluke in the eyes of the wider UK electorate. (Current - 122 councillors UK rank: 7th *does not include green parties of Ccotland and Northern Ireland)
For the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives this will be a defensive campaign, being in Government and being the ones to handle the deficit will no doubt make them unpopular with chunks of voters, if they can maintain control of what councils they have it will make supporting their agenda much easier on a local level. The Coalition may hope that any losses they do suffer will be to other parties rather than Labour so as stem a Labour revival with a wall of minor parties.
Who do you think will gain the most this year? any predictions at all? please leave them in the comments
As it stands at the moment, the Conservative Party controls about 46% of council seats in the UK with Labour on 21% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%. But since England lacks a devolved government of it's own (to the annoyance of the English Democrats) these elections will be the best chance for any of the smaller parties based in England to really make some gains.
Labour - For Labour they will be going into the English elections with some momentum having made gains during the 2010 local elections (+14 Councils and +414 Councillors) which ran parallel with the General Election. But they will be hoping to capitalise on the Spending Cuts made by the Coalition and the huge drop in Lib Dem support in the opinion polls to gain as many councils as they can. Apart from the obvious reason of wanting more seats to push their policies on a local level, a big win for Labour in the Local elections could be the push they need to de-stabilise the Liberal Democrats from the Coalition and dispel the argument that a new Lib/Lab/others coalition was anti-English as they could easily argue that the local elections show they have a good support among the English. For 'Red Ed' Miliband these elections are just as much a test of his leadership as the Devolved elections, as even when losing the General election Gordon Brown's Labour party still managed to make gains.(Current UK council standing - 4379 councillors, Rank: 2nd)
English Democrats - For the English Democrats, these elections have the same weight as the Scottish Parliament's are to the SNP or the Welsh Assembly's are to Plaid Cymru. Currently they hold 4 seats (1-Blackburn and Darwen, 1-Calderdale and 2-Peterborough) and the mayoralty of Doncaster but will be hoping that the 64000 votes they scored in the General election will carry on into the Councils which could see them make some nice gains for their party. If they make a significant enough gain to enter an Opposition or Coalition partner on a council it will be a real test for the bigger parties to deal with the growth in English Nationalism without alienating voters. A question which could effect English Democrat success is to whether or not the Alliance for Democracy, the electoral alliance between the EngDems, the Christian Party, the Jury Team and Veritas will still remain for the local election as they will then be able to pull their votes together to help each other in certain areas. (Current UK council standing: 4 Councillors, Rank: 26th
Respect - The Respect Party, most commonly known for it's former MP George Galloway, will be hoping to build on its local base having seen their Commons representation lost in the General Election. Having scored 0.1% (33251 votes) of the total UK vote in the General Election with only 10 candidates (over half the EngDem vote with a 1/10 of the candidates) and currently chalking up 13 councillors, the Respect Party is one which may see itself becoming more prominent in it's strongholds. The main problem for th party would be a sudden surge in labour support against the Coalition Government which could see their seats decrease. If they however can sttrike a deal with the Green party and perhaps the TUSC (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) they could benefit from the 'left of Labour' vote. (Current - 13 Councillors UK rank: 14th)
Liberal - The Liberal Party, a splinter from the birth of the Liberal Democrats, is one of the more successful small parties in council terms boasting 25 councillors at the moment. Although it doesn't sound huge it does put them ahead of UKIP (Second biggest Euro party and have two lord), the English Democrats, The Scottish Greens, (have 2 MSPs) Mebyon Kernow, The Libertarians and Respect (used to have an MP) to name a few. The Liberal Party are alos a prime candidate to take advantage of the anti-Libdem sentiment by offering a viable, non-Labour Liberal alternative. If they can organise a solid campaign they could look to gain a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats and perhaps encourage a few defections after the elections if the LibDems take a harsh beating from the electorate. They have had some dealings with the Alliance for Democracy, but it would only best wise to link up with other parties if they felt it would significantly boost their chance of winning seats as the Libdems are currently being punished for their own link-up with the Tories. (Current - 25 Councillors UK rank: 11th)
British National Party - The BNP, who are currently going through internal conflicts will be hoping to make some gains after taking a bit of a beating during the 2010 campaigns. For Nick Griffin whose current leadership and succession plans are under threat from internal factions will most likely hope to make some gains to show the party is still making ground but not enough to introduce to many possible contenders for his leadership, while he may be an MEP, a Euro-sceptic party may prefer to have their leader be the Leader of the Opposition on a local Council until they get enough votes to make it into the Commons.(Current - 55 Councillors UK rank 8th)
Green - The Green Party of England and Wales will be focused on Norwich and Norfolk where they have been slowly building a stronghold of votes and the Brighton and Hove City Council election where they are currently third on the council but where they elected their first MP. These local elections could be a chance to form some electoral pacts with other similarly inclined parties to help bolster a green-friendly bloc among councils. If the Greens fail to capitalise on the election of Caroline Lucas it will make her election seem more like a fluke in the eyes of the wider UK electorate. (Current - 122 councillors UK rank: 7th *does not include green parties of Ccotland and Northern Ireland)
For the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives this will be a defensive campaign, being in Government and being the ones to handle the deficit will no doubt make them unpopular with chunks of voters, if they can maintain control of what councils they have it will make supporting their agenda much easier on a local level. The Coalition may hope that any losses they do suffer will be to other parties rather than Labour so as stem a Labour revival with a wall of minor parties.
Who do you think will gain the most this year? any predictions at all? please leave them in the comments
Monday, 3 January 2011
Oldham East By Election - Party Analysis
On The 13th of January the first By-election since the Coalition Government was formed will take place.
10 Candidates have entered the fray and despite the usual media blackout on any party that isn't the big three, this is a by far a for gone conclusion. Articles in the Guardian already claim that all three big parties could be in for a slap from the electorate. But what would a win by any of the Candidates mean? (In no particular order in an effort for some level of fairness)
Stephen Morris - English Democrats - With the Mayoralty of Doncaster and a few local councillors under their belt, the English Democrats are (based on votes at the General election) 13th on what I like to think of as the UK league table. A win by the English Democrats would be a huge slap not only for the big three parties but also the Leaders of the big three as; 'Red Ed' would lose his first electoral clash in the Labour leadership, 'King-maker' Clegg would lose an election his party fought tooth and nail to get, and David Cameron (he hasn't got much of a nickname yet) would have to deal with the fact his soft campaign to get the Lib Dems in not only failed but allowed another party into the house. For the English Democrats themselves the PR boost alone in gaining the seat could propel their share of votes up in any upcoming election. They will have to consider how they operate within the house (something I touched upon here ) most likely joining the 'Celtic Bloc' of the SNP and Plaid will be good position for the English Democrats as it will make the Bloc (which will most likely have to be renamed) a more viable coalition partner as it removes the 'Anyone but England' aspect of the bloc when potentially forming a coalition.
Elwyn Watkins - Liberal Democrats - This by-election is crucial for 'King-maker' Clegg. A win will soothe Lib dem fears over their electoral future and help replenish some of the seats lost due to a polarisation of the vote in 2010. From a PR stand point the win will help Clegg sell his parties position as he will be able to point to the fact that his party are still winning seats and therefore have the backing of the public. As this is also the year of the AV referendum, Celtic Elections and English council elections a win now may help the Lib Dems maintain rather than lose their current seats status allowing them to ride out the current coalition till 2015 with more or less the same seats they started with.
Peter Allen - Green Party - For the Green party of England and Wales (Currently ranked 7th in my mind) Oldham offers the chance to prove that the election of Caroline Lucas in Brighton was not a one off and the win would help on the road to proving to the electorate that they are a credible alternative, not just in Westminster, but also in the Celtic Elections coming up in May. A second Green in the commons could be an argument for the Greens to back the Celtic Bloc in a similar way in that they back the SNP minority Government in Scotland, but unless the Greens could extract some sort of electoral arrangement in Scotland and Wales to help improve (and in the case of Wales, get) their seat share within the respective devolved bodies a deal is unlikely. From a PR stand point the election of another Green would help push more environmental policies showing that the public does think that the environment should be prioritised with the election of two Greens to the current parliament. And of course a similar sentiment for the big three as I mentioned in the English Democrat section.
Paul Nuttal MEP - UKIP - With two Lords and being the second biggest British party in the European Parliament (Currently ranked 4th by me) UKIP will be hoping that Oldham East is their door into the House of Commons. By putting forward an MEP, UKIP will perhaps be reminding the public that they are a credible party. If they win, the benefits will mostly be from PR, One MP in a Parliament that is shifting towards Coalition style politics is not a big asset but will, like all smaller parties help boost their chances for the devolved elections and allow them to build their representation outside of Brussels. One possible outcome could be that if UKIP make it into the Commons, they may attract some Tory defectors unhappy with the Coalition's direction towards Europe. (and again big three get a slap if UKIP win)
Kashif Ali - Conservative - Mr Ali occupies and unique position in this election, in that he is the candidate that no other party, including his own, wants to win. Should he manage to win despite a soft campaign from Conservative HQ to allow the Lib Dems to win, he will bring very few benefits to the party (in the grander scheme of things NOT in a personal sense)as the Lib Dems will take a huge hit to their morale and potentially lead to more problems for the Coalition. However is Kashif does win 'Red Ed' Miliband may find himself in trouble with a party that already has doubts about which brother they should have empowered.
Derek Adams - BNP - The BNP's two Euro seat win was a huge breakthrough for the party (they are also 5th in the Rankings) and they will hope that Oldham provides another. A win here, will in a similar sense to the Lib Dems, provide some internal ease for the party who has been going through some internal problems in regards to finance and Leadership along with similar benefits the other smaller parties would also gain from a win.
Debbie Abrahams - Labour - Labour (Currently number 2 in rankings) have a lot riding on the Oldham by-election. For 'Red Ed' it will provide a mark in the win column for his fledgling Leadership and help stave off any would-be coups that are already beginning to fester. It will also give them more ammunition in their battle against Coalition policies, especially the spending cuts and allow Labour to fan the flames in regards to Lib Dem electoral fears over their Union with the Conservatives. It will also be a comfort to party activists who may still be worried about their party's electoral chances in regards to the upcoming elections in that the public have shifted into a more anti-coalition mindset which may allow Labour to gain overall control of Wales and perhaps minority control of Scotland.
Loz Kaye - Pirate Party UK - The Pirates, who currently occupy 44th in the rankings are the legitimate outsider in this election, but by putting forward their leader and fighting in an election which has a lot of eyes focused on it, they will hopefully come out with a huge publicity boost that may translate into a few council or Celtic seats in the upcoming elections in May. A win by the Pirates would be a huge surprise and not to just the main three but also the more mid-field parties like the Greens, EngDems, UKIP and BNP and should the Pirates overtake any other party (except the joke parties) it will be a huge blow to that party to be beaten by a party which only fielded nine candidates in the General Election (English Democrats were the next lowest with 107 candidates) so as long as the Pirates stay ahead of the Monster raving loony party and the Bus Pass-Elvis party they cant lose.
David Bishop of the Bus-pass Elvis party and The Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party (Ranked 27th) are the joke parties and a win by them would most probably surprise them more than any of us.
While not every party is fighting to win (Conservatives and Joke parties) the final results table will be a benefit to some and a cost to others, a late PR Xmas pressie or a PR nightmare... Lovely way to kick of 2011
10 Candidates have entered the fray and despite the usual media blackout on any party that isn't the big three, this is a by far a for gone conclusion. Articles in the Guardian already claim that all three big parties could be in for a slap from the electorate. But what would a win by any of the Candidates mean? (In no particular order in an effort for some level of fairness)
Stephen Morris - English Democrats - With the Mayoralty of Doncaster and a few local councillors under their belt, the English Democrats are (based on votes at the General election) 13th on what I like to think of as the UK league table. A win by the English Democrats would be a huge slap not only for the big three parties but also the Leaders of the big three as; 'Red Ed' would lose his first electoral clash in the Labour leadership, 'King-maker' Clegg would lose an election his party fought tooth and nail to get, and David Cameron (he hasn't got much of a nickname yet) would have to deal with the fact his soft campaign to get the Lib Dems in not only failed but allowed another party into the house. For the English Democrats themselves the PR boost alone in gaining the seat could propel their share of votes up in any upcoming election. They will have to consider how they operate within the house (something I touched upon here ) most likely joining the 'Celtic Bloc' of the SNP and Plaid will be good position for the English Democrats as it will make the Bloc (which will most likely have to be renamed) a more viable coalition partner as it removes the 'Anyone but England' aspect of the bloc when potentially forming a coalition.
Elwyn Watkins - Liberal Democrats - This by-election is crucial for 'King-maker' Clegg. A win will soothe Lib dem fears over their electoral future and help replenish some of the seats lost due to a polarisation of the vote in 2010. From a PR stand point the win will help Clegg sell his parties position as he will be able to point to the fact that his party are still winning seats and therefore have the backing of the public. As this is also the year of the AV referendum, Celtic Elections and English council elections a win now may help the Lib Dems maintain rather than lose their current seats status allowing them to ride out the current coalition till 2015 with more or less the same seats they started with.
Peter Allen - Green Party - For the Green party of England and Wales (Currently ranked 7th in my mind) Oldham offers the chance to prove that the election of Caroline Lucas in Brighton was not a one off and the win would help on the road to proving to the electorate that they are a credible alternative, not just in Westminster, but also in the Celtic Elections coming up in May. A second Green in the commons could be an argument for the Greens to back the Celtic Bloc in a similar way in that they back the SNP minority Government in Scotland, but unless the Greens could extract some sort of electoral arrangement in Scotland and Wales to help improve (and in the case of Wales, get) their seat share within the respective devolved bodies a deal is unlikely. From a PR stand point the election of another Green would help push more environmental policies showing that the public does think that the environment should be prioritised with the election of two Greens to the current parliament. And of course a similar sentiment for the big three as I mentioned in the English Democrat section.
Paul Nuttal MEP - UKIP - With two Lords and being the second biggest British party in the European Parliament (Currently ranked 4th by me) UKIP will be hoping that Oldham East is their door into the House of Commons. By putting forward an MEP, UKIP will perhaps be reminding the public that they are a credible party. If they win, the benefits will mostly be from PR, One MP in a Parliament that is shifting towards Coalition style politics is not a big asset but will, like all smaller parties help boost their chances for the devolved elections and allow them to build their representation outside of Brussels. One possible outcome could be that if UKIP make it into the Commons, they may attract some Tory defectors unhappy with the Coalition's direction towards Europe. (and again big three get a slap if UKIP win)
Kashif Ali - Conservative - Mr Ali occupies and unique position in this election, in that he is the candidate that no other party, including his own, wants to win. Should he manage to win despite a soft campaign from Conservative HQ to allow the Lib Dems to win, he will bring very few benefits to the party (in the grander scheme of things NOT in a personal sense)as the Lib Dems will take a huge hit to their morale and potentially lead to more problems for the Coalition. However is Kashif does win 'Red Ed' Miliband may find himself in trouble with a party that already has doubts about which brother they should have empowered.
Derek Adams - BNP - The BNP's two Euro seat win was a huge breakthrough for the party (they are also 5th in the Rankings) and they will hope that Oldham provides another. A win here, will in a similar sense to the Lib Dems, provide some internal ease for the party who has been going through some internal problems in regards to finance and Leadership along with similar benefits the other smaller parties would also gain from a win.
Debbie Abrahams - Labour - Labour (Currently number 2 in rankings) have a lot riding on the Oldham by-election. For 'Red Ed' it will provide a mark in the win column for his fledgling Leadership and help stave off any would-be coups that are already beginning to fester. It will also give them more ammunition in their battle against Coalition policies, especially the spending cuts and allow Labour to fan the flames in regards to Lib Dem electoral fears over their Union with the Conservatives. It will also be a comfort to party activists who may still be worried about their party's electoral chances in regards to the upcoming elections in that the public have shifted into a more anti-coalition mindset which may allow Labour to gain overall control of Wales and perhaps minority control of Scotland.
Loz Kaye - Pirate Party UK - The Pirates, who currently occupy 44th in the rankings are the legitimate outsider in this election, but by putting forward their leader and fighting in an election which has a lot of eyes focused on it, they will hopefully come out with a huge publicity boost that may translate into a few council or Celtic seats in the upcoming elections in May. A win by the Pirates would be a huge surprise and not to just the main three but also the more mid-field parties like the Greens, EngDems, UKIP and BNP and should the Pirates overtake any other party (except the joke parties) it will be a huge blow to that party to be beaten by a party which only fielded nine candidates in the General Election (English Democrats were the next lowest with 107 candidates) so as long as the Pirates stay ahead of the Monster raving loony party and the Bus Pass-Elvis party they cant lose.
David Bishop of the Bus-pass Elvis party and The Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party (Ranked 27th) are the joke parties and a win by them would most probably surprise them more than any of us.
While not every party is fighting to win (Conservatives and Joke parties) the final results table will be a benefit to some and a cost to others, a late PR Xmas pressie or a PR nightmare... Lovely way to kick of 2011
Thursday, 23 December 2010
What if Proportional Representation had been used in the 2010 UK General Election?
With the vote in the commons and hopefully (for the Lib Dems) referendum on switching to the AV system for elections some are calling that it does not go far enough.
But as question that is the title of this post asks... what if PR had been used in 2010?
Well as PR is based on percentage of the vote won I'd best give the result for those who would qualify assuming that 1% was required to win seats.
Votes
Conservative - 36.1% (36)
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 23%
UKIP - 3.1%
BNP - 1.9%
SNP - 1.7%
Green - 1%
Total - 95.8% of vote qualifies for seats
Seats (based on %)
Conservative - 234.65
Labour - 188.5
Lib Dem - 149.5
UKIP - 20.15
BNP - 12.35
SNP - 11.05
Green - 6.5
Total 622.7
Time for a Question within a Question, when deciding actual seats, do I simply count every actual seat won and ignore point places or do I round up and down accordingly
1)If I were to ignore decimal places for seats the final result would be
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lid - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 12
SNP - 11
Gre - 6
Result - 620 seats - Hung Parliament - Cons lacking 77 seats for majority of 1
Almost poetically this result means that a Lib/Lab coalition would have been numerically possible as they would equal 337
2)If however I were to round up we get another question..do we round up the percent of votes cast for everyone? Then a party would need 0.5% of the vote to qualify for a percent of the seats.
2a) if we take it that a party need 1% to qualify for seats but then were rounded up
Votes/share/Seats
Cons - 36.1% - 36% - 234
Lab - 29% - 29% - 188
Lib - 23% - 23% - 149
UKIP - 3.1% - 3% - 19.5 seats = 20
BNP - 1.9% - 2% - 13
SNP - 1.7% - 2% - 13
Gre - 1% - 1% - 6.5 seats = 7
Total seats - 624 - Hung Parliament - Cons lack 79 seats for majority of 1
Really only slight differences to bottom of the table that increase the number of seats and the number of seats needed for a majority.
2b) If rounding up as used throughout the whole process 3 more parties would qualify for seats
Sinn Fein - 0.6% of Vote
DUP - 0.6% of Vote
Plaid Cymru - 0.6% of Vote
Each would be rounded up to 1% and would then qualify for the same 7 seats as the Greens meaning the final table with rounding would look something like this;
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lib - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 13
SNP - 13
Gre - 7
DUP - 7
Sinn - 7
Cym - 7
Total Seats - 645 - Hung Parliament - 323 needed for majority
These seat numbers are of course based on the idea that the Commons remained at 650 going into the election. It would most likely have to be decided how many seats would be in the commons prior to any election.
What I find most interesting is just how close the Lib Dems and Labour really are.
So hopefully this has given you an idea on how the current parliament would have looked like had PR been used.
But as question that is the title of this post asks... what if PR had been used in 2010?
Well as PR is based on percentage of the vote won I'd best give the result for those who would qualify assuming that 1% was required to win seats.
Votes
Conservative - 36.1% (36)
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 23%
UKIP - 3.1%
BNP - 1.9%
SNP - 1.7%
Green - 1%
Total - 95.8% of vote qualifies for seats
Seats (based on %)
Conservative - 234.65
Labour - 188.5
Lib Dem - 149.5
UKIP - 20.15
BNP - 12.35
SNP - 11.05
Green - 6.5
Total 622.7
Time for a Question within a Question, when deciding actual seats, do I simply count every actual seat won and ignore point places or do I round up and down accordingly
1)If I were to ignore decimal places for seats the final result would be
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lid - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 12
SNP - 11
Gre - 6
Result - 620 seats - Hung Parliament - Cons lacking 77 seats for majority of 1
Almost poetically this result means that a Lib/Lab coalition would have been numerically possible as they would equal 337
2)If however I were to round up we get another question..do we round up the percent of votes cast for everyone? Then a party would need 0.5% of the vote to qualify for a percent of the seats.
2a) if we take it that a party need 1% to qualify for seats but then were rounded up
Votes/share/Seats
Cons - 36.1% - 36% - 234
Lab - 29% - 29% - 188
Lib - 23% - 23% - 149
UKIP - 3.1% - 3% - 19.5 seats = 20
BNP - 1.9% - 2% - 13
SNP - 1.7% - 2% - 13
Gre - 1% - 1% - 6.5 seats = 7
Total seats - 624 - Hung Parliament - Cons lack 79 seats for majority of 1
Really only slight differences to bottom of the table that increase the number of seats and the number of seats needed for a majority.
2b) If rounding up as used throughout the whole process 3 more parties would qualify for seats
Sinn Fein - 0.6% of Vote
DUP - 0.6% of Vote
Plaid Cymru - 0.6% of Vote
Each would be rounded up to 1% and would then qualify for the same 7 seats as the Greens meaning the final table with rounding would look something like this;
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lib - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 13
SNP - 13
Gre - 7
DUP - 7
Sinn - 7
Cym - 7
Total Seats - 645 - Hung Parliament - 323 needed for majority
These seat numbers are of course based on the idea that the Commons remained at 650 going into the election. It would most likely have to be decided how many seats would be in the commons prior to any election.
What I find most interesting is just how close the Lib Dems and Labour really are.
So hopefully this has given you an idea on how the current parliament would have looked like had PR been used.
Saturday, 11 December 2010
ConDem 2011?
With the Conservative/Liberal Democrat surviving a rebellion by either side it is safe to assume that until 2015 the Westminster Coalition will survive, the question is, could the ConDem's take the Westminster show on the road to Cardiff and Edinburgh?
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
Friday, 10 September 2010
Liberal Democrats, Bottom of the Food Chain?
Reported today by the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11255788) the Leader of the Green Party, Caroline Lucas MP, is making overtures to rebels within the Liberal Democrats. The Greens, who polled half the the votes the BNP got and only a quarter of that scored by UKIP, are in an interesting position when it comes to poaching possible defectors thanks to their single seat within the House of Commons, making them seem like a realistic haven for any rebels.
The Liberal Democrats themselves are a funny bunch, Drifting from the centre to the left of the political spectrum the 57 Lib Dems could potentially defect to a vast array of parties that would be happy to get some representation in the Commons or score points against the Tories junior partner.
The Green Party - Caroline Lucas' elevation to MP was considered one of the historic moments of the 2010 General Election, but with only one seat and failure to take control of Norwich City Council from Labour, it seems that the Green's momentum is starting to dissipate. Managing to snag a Lib Dem rebel would not only be a blow to the Coalition, but also provide Caroline Lucas with a PR bonanza as the Greens could legitimately market themselves as a true alternative to the Big Three and hopefully have some Lib Dems supporters follow their rebel MP.
The Liberal Party - Seen by the Lib Dems as a splinter group but in their eyes they are the remnant and true heirs to the Liberal Party of old. Should a Lib Dem defect to the Liberals, other than providing their first (or first in a long time) seat in the Commons, could be a huge problem as the Liberal can argue to embody what the Lib Dems gave up going into government with the Conservatives.
SNP/Plaid - Any Scottish or Welsh Lib Dems always have the option to catch the nationalist bug and the Celtic Bloc would love to be in a better position to criticise the cuts the Coalition will be sending to their respective Devolved bodies.
English Democrats/Mebyon Kernow - the Nationalists that aren't so fortunate when it comes to the polls would likely relish the chance to get some representation, even if it is just for one parliament. The advertisement it would be for their parties could help them build their support bases by making their parties seem like a credible option in the eyes of the voter who believes that a vote outside the Big Three is wasted.
Labour - Joining Labour is always the option for rebels seeking safety in numbers and with Labour standing to benefit from the Coalition Financial hatchet-men, it make sense to jump ship to those who are likely to reap the benefits come the next elections.
In the end it all really comes down to where any rebels fall in terms of policies and who they feel they can retain their seat with. I focused this post on the lib dems defecting because with the current situation the Lib dems seem the most disillusioned with their place in the political narrative and the idea of creating a big splash by defecting to a previously non-existant political power could put them high up in any small party's heirarchy.
The Liberal Democrats themselves are a funny bunch, Drifting from the centre to the left of the political spectrum the 57 Lib Dems could potentially defect to a vast array of parties that would be happy to get some representation in the Commons or score points against the Tories junior partner.
The Green Party - Caroline Lucas' elevation to MP was considered one of the historic moments of the 2010 General Election, but with only one seat and failure to take control of Norwich City Council from Labour, it seems that the Green's momentum is starting to dissipate. Managing to snag a Lib Dem rebel would not only be a blow to the Coalition, but also provide Caroline Lucas with a PR bonanza as the Greens could legitimately market themselves as a true alternative to the Big Three and hopefully have some Lib Dems supporters follow their rebel MP.
The Liberal Party - Seen by the Lib Dems as a splinter group but in their eyes they are the remnant and true heirs to the Liberal Party of old. Should a Lib Dem defect to the Liberals, other than providing their first (or first in a long time) seat in the Commons, could be a huge problem as the Liberal can argue to embody what the Lib Dems gave up going into government with the Conservatives.
SNP/Plaid - Any Scottish or Welsh Lib Dems always have the option to catch the nationalist bug and the Celtic Bloc would love to be in a better position to criticise the cuts the Coalition will be sending to their respective Devolved bodies.
English Democrats/Mebyon Kernow - the Nationalists that aren't so fortunate when it comes to the polls would likely relish the chance to get some representation, even if it is just for one parliament. The advertisement it would be for their parties could help them build their support bases by making their parties seem like a credible option in the eyes of the voter who believes that a vote outside the Big Three is wasted.
Labour - Joining Labour is always the option for rebels seeking safety in numbers and with Labour standing to benefit from the Coalition Financial hatchet-men, it make sense to jump ship to those who are likely to reap the benefits come the next elections.
In the end it all really comes down to where any rebels fall in terms of policies and who they feel they can retain their seat with. I focused this post on the lib dems defecting because with the current situation the Lib dems seem the most disillusioned with their place in the political narrative and the idea of creating a big splash by defecting to a previously non-existant political power could put them high up in any small party's heirarchy.
Sunday, 29 August 2010
Slow Death of The PUP
The UVF linked Progressive Unionist Party has over the last few months seen it's Heavyweights slowly drift away from the Party.
First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.
The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.
The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.
If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.
Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.
One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.
A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.
As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact
First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.
The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.
The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.
If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.
Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.
One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.
A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.
As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Possible UK Coalition Deals
In honour of the first 100 days of the Tory/Libdem Coalition the BBC decided to fun a feature on what if they hadn't got together (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11009623)
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Saturday, 17 July 2010
The Valley of Death for the Liberal Democrats
Today Nick Clegg announced in a speech that he believed that by the end of this Parliament we would have a "Liberal Britain", Problem is I doubt the Liberal Democrats will be apart of it.
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Labour's counter-attack?
The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Saturday, 8 May 2010
General Election 2010 - Possible Governments
This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
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