If the UK Broke Apart...

Within the components of the UK there are a vast array of differing opinion when it comes to issues like the Union, Devolution and Independence...

So let's pose a hypothetical (It's what is done on this blog mainly), It's September 1st 2010 (tomorrow from when i'm writing) and after an emergency meeting the night before between the cabinet and the devolved executive bodies it has been decided that the UK will break up..what now?

As an added feature in respect of it's Celtic heritage, Cornwall is an additional part along with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England.

Outcome 1) Five Nations: Every part of the former UK decides to become a fully independent state;

Scotland would most likely retain the Monarchy and would probably be able to draw in investment with it's status as a source of Oil, though the Scottish Economy would most likely be the strongest of the Celtic Nations leaving the UK

Wales may retain the Monarch but may also shift to a President (an Idea would be to ask that the title of Prince of Wales pass to Prince Harry to separate the Monarchy), It would have to reinvest heavily in tourism, Light manufacturing and agriculture to rebalance it's economy

Cornwall may install the Duchy of Cornwall as it's head of state (though again an idea would be to ask that it passes to Prince Harry so as to separate the Duchy from the Monarchy) Cornwall's economy would be reliant on tourism but as they already qualify for EU poverty funding money would be entering the Cornish economy to stimulate an independent Cornish economy (NOTE: Relies on Cornwall Remaining in EU)

Northern Ireland, due to it's current Unionist Majority would not reunite with the republic, It's economy would face a huge problem with rebalancing and moving away from the public sector, Reinvestment in Engineering and Heavier Industries would be it's safest move due to the and educational strength in those fields, The Monarchy may not be kept by Northern Ireland and perhaps they would install their own President as a concession to Irish republicans.

England would most likely benefit with it's economy already being the 18th highest GDP PPP and no longer having to cover the Celtic Nations, It would also enjoy a stronger position in Foreign affairs thanks to this and it's size in comparison to the Celtic Nations, The Monarch would most likely remain as England alone would provide a large Tory majority (using current seats)

2)Patchwork Unions: This outcome would see the establishment of 4 entities existing within the British Isles.

a)England (see previous outcome for economical)
b)Scotland
c)United Ireland
d)Welsh/Cornish Union

England and Scotland would be viable enough economically to survive on their own and thus may not see any benefit to Uniting with any of the others.

United Ireland would make geographical sense and with the promise of greater influence Ulster Unionists may see it as their best bet to reshape the Northern Irish economy.

Welsh/Cornish Alliance although perhaps a surprising idea would make sense in soem regards, Both are fishing nations, Rely partially on tourism and quite geographically close, could also see the development of a strengthen small boat industry with travel between the two.

Perhaps an Unlikely outcome but plausible

3)England and the Celtic Union: As the name suggests this outcome would see the formation of a Celtic Union with England remaining on it's own.

The Celtic Union would most likely be formed with all the former UK Celtic countries and the Republic of Ireland, With the Republic of Ireland and Scotland being the dominant economic powers. This would also allow Northern Ireland to Unite with the rest of Ireland without ceasing to exist. Although a Celtic Union would most likely run on a Federal system it would likely require some economic aid from Scotland and the republic of Ireland to help rebalance the other Celtic economies. The Monarchy would most likely be replaced by a President, either within a new office or simply expanding the Role of the Irish President to encompass all the Celtic Union.

This outcome would be more likely as it would provide the Celtic Union a bit more clout in Foreign Affairs and offer a fresh debate on EU membership.

4)The Ulster-Scot Union, Welsh/Cornish bloc and England

A slight tweak to the 'Patchwork Unions' outcome in that Northern Ireland would join with Scotland due to their similarities culturally and a generally very close relationship, would again require Scotland to help Northern Ireland rebalance it's economy


There are many different possibilities for potential outcomes, What do you think?

The Valley of Death for the Liberal Democrats

Today Nick Clegg announced in a speech that he believed that by the end of this Parliament we would have a "Liberal Britain", Problem is I doubt the Liberal Democrats will be apart of it.

During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.

From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?

I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.

Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.

There some more problems on the horizon though.

The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.

In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.

It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"