Irish General election 2011 - Tactical Analysis

The General Election in the Republic of Ireland has been hailed as historic and a Political Massacre, as Fine Gael top the Poll to become the largest Party in the Dail while Fianna Fail are not only consigned to wander the political Wilderness but sent out bloodied and beaten.

So what now for the parties of the republic of Ireland

Fine Gael - 76 Seats

The New Big Dog of the Irish Yard. Fine Gael's massive gains won't bring them much of a political honeymoon, left with one one real option of a Coalition with Labour, Fine Gael will have to ensure that their Junior partner is kept under control, especially due to Labour's bad history in Coalitions. Fine Gael's main problems however do not reside in the political landscape of Ireland, where their historic Civil-war opponent now lies beaten, but instead in Brussels, wheere the European Heavyweights of Merkel and Sarkozy face their own national battles and will be looking to satisfy their electorate with Irish Red Meat.

Labour - 37 Seats

Labour have advanced to become the number 2 party of the Dail, not just in terms of Coalition, but also in Size. With their new size comes the promise of some power as the Junior partner in the Coalition, but Labour will have to be cautious, with the corpse of the last Junior party, The Greens, to serve as a reminder of what can happen to Junior Partners. Labour's time in Government however will not be made easy by the Hard-Left, who now take on the dual-form of Sinn Fein and it's Socialist Republicanism and the United Left Alliance and it's more traditional Socialism both of whom made historic gain of their own.

Fianna Fail - 20 seats

Fianna Fail lost 57 seats during the election, suffered high profile casualties, and took the record for the worst defeat ever for a Western government Party. Fianna Fail now a shadow of it's former glory face the task of Opposition while also rebuilding their party. There is some Solace, with the rise of the Hard-left, Opposition duties can now be effectively spilt, with Fianna Fail targeting Fine Gael and Sinn Fein and the ULA focusing on Labour. Fianna Fail may wish to consider challenging for more seats in the north, adopting a strategy similar to Sinn Fein, unfortunately with both Local and Assembly elections being held in Northern Ireland in May, Fianna Fail will have to put together a campaign quickly, even if it is only a token force.

Sinn Fein - 14 seats

Sinn Fein managed to gain over treble the seats they had going into the election, and brought Party president Baron Gerry Adams into the Dail. Sinn Fein will now most likely go after Labour, attacking them for going into Government with Fine Gael. Sinn Fein's focus however will shift to the North, where they hope to make enough gains to pull the DUP down into Second place and claim the title of First Minister for themselves. Sinn Fein will have to watch to see how the Unionists try to take on the momentum that Sinn Fein has gathered, but also will have to keep a eye on the ULA.

United Left Alliance - 5 seats

The Breakthrough of the United Left Alliance into the Dail has brought 2 Socialists, 2 People before Profit Alliance members and 1 Workers and Unemployed Action Group member. There have been talks of a Single Party being formed to capitalise on the gains the left alliance has made. They may also try to make similar gain in Northern Ireland where the parties that make up the ULA also run. The best bet for the ULA is to focus it's efforts on Labour, allowing Fianna Fail to handle Fine Gael.

The Green party - O seats

The Green Party suffered a total Wipeout in the election and will no doubt be out of the Dail for a while to come. The Green party will have to do as Fianna Fail plan to, and rebuild the party from scratch.


Irish politics has changed, only time will tell if it's for the better

If the UK Broke Apart...

Within the components of the UK there are a vast array of differing opinion when it comes to issues like the Union, Devolution and Independence...

So let's pose a hypothetical (It's what is done on this blog mainly), It's September 1st 2010 (tomorrow from when i'm writing) and after an emergency meeting the night before between the cabinet and the devolved executive bodies it has been decided that the UK will break up..what now?

As an added feature in respect of it's Celtic heritage, Cornwall is an additional part along with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England.

Outcome 1) Five Nations: Every part of the former UK decides to become a fully independent state;

Scotland would most likely retain the Monarchy and would probably be able to draw in investment with it's status as a source of Oil, though the Scottish Economy would most likely be the strongest of the Celtic Nations leaving the UK

Wales may retain the Monarch but may also shift to a President (an Idea would be to ask that the title of Prince of Wales pass to Prince Harry to separate the Monarchy), It would have to reinvest heavily in tourism, Light manufacturing and agriculture to rebalance it's economy

Cornwall may install the Duchy of Cornwall as it's head of state (though again an idea would be to ask that it passes to Prince Harry so as to separate the Duchy from the Monarchy) Cornwall's economy would be reliant on tourism but as they already qualify for EU poverty funding money would be entering the Cornish economy to stimulate an independent Cornish economy (NOTE: Relies on Cornwall Remaining in EU)

Northern Ireland, due to it's current Unionist Majority would not reunite with the republic, It's economy would face a huge problem with rebalancing and moving away from the public sector, Reinvestment in Engineering and Heavier Industries would be it's safest move due to the and educational strength in those fields, The Monarchy may not be kept by Northern Ireland and perhaps they would install their own President as a concession to Irish republicans.

England would most likely benefit with it's economy already being the 18th highest GDP PPP and no longer having to cover the Celtic Nations, It would also enjoy a stronger position in Foreign affairs thanks to this and it's size in comparison to the Celtic Nations, The Monarch would most likely remain as England alone would provide a large Tory majority (using current seats)

2)Patchwork Unions: This outcome would see the establishment of 4 entities existing within the British Isles.

a)England (see previous outcome for economical)
b)Scotland
c)United Ireland
d)Welsh/Cornish Union

England and Scotland would be viable enough economically to survive on their own and thus may not see any benefit to Uniting with any of the others.

United Ireland would make geographical sense and with the promise of greater influence Ulster Unionists may see it as their best bet to reshape the Northern Irish economy.

Welsh/Cornish Alliance although perhaps a surprising idea would make sense in soem regards, Both are fishing nations, Rely partially on tourism and quite geographically close, could also see the development of a strengthen small boat industry with travel between the two.

Perhaps an Unlikely outcome but plausible

3)England and the Celtic Union: As the name suggests this outcome would see the formation of a Celtic Union with England remaining on it's own.

The Celtic Union would most likely be formed with all the former UK Celtic countries and the Republic of Ireland, With the Republic of Ireland and Scotland being the dominant economic powers. This would also allow Northern Ireland to Unite with the rest of Ireland without ceasing to exist. Although a Celtic Union would most likely run on a Federal system it would likely require some economic aid from Scotland and the republic of Ireland to help rebalance the other Celtic economies. The Monarchy would most likely be replaced by a President, either within a new office or simply expanding the Role of the Irish President to encompass all the Celtic Union.

This outcome would be more likely as it would provide the Celtic Union a bit more clout in Foreign Affairs and offer a fresh debate on EU membership.

4)The Ulster-Scot Union, Welsh/Cornish bloc and England

A slight tweak to the 'Patchwork Unions' outcome in that Northern Ireland would join with Scotland due to their similarities culturally and a generally very close relationship, would again require Scotland to help Northern Ireland rebalance it's economy


There are many different possibilities for potential outcomes, What do you think?

Sinn Fein Executive - The Weakest Link?

The Mandatory Coalition System of the Stormont administration has its supporters and its detractors. Often the Coalition is criticised as petty with the constituent parties trying to score cheap political points over perceived failing of their Coalition Colleagues.

But recently it has become increasing easy to criticise the Sinn Fein Front line.
Caitríona Ruane, the Education Minister has provided extra funding for Irish Medium schools with many seats unfilled while denying funds to integrated schools who are forced to turn pupils away, saying that the money is not there for the expansions schools seek while essentially setting up 4 new schools instead.

Michelle Gildernew, The Agriculture minister has cost Northern Ireland funding that it needs during this time of economic recovery due to the shambolic apporach to Farmers and EU grants which has incurred Northern Ireland millions in fines which will be applied to future funding.

With Sinn Fein MP Expenses coming under renewed fire from Westminster, Assembly Elections on the way and Fianna Fail setting up shop in Northern Ireland it is not unfeasible to say the Sinn Fein have some pressure on them.

Potentially the problems the Sinn Fein Executive have planned are part of a scorched earth strategy, setting up schools that will likely need to be closed due to lack of pupils and have problems with the EU needing to be resolved and then switching the ministerial briefs when the d'hondt system comes in. With some predicting Sinn fein advancing to be the biggest party they would have first pick of pretty much any ministry they liked.

However the problem Sinn Fein may face is that everyone has seen them setting up the pyres and this could backfire with Sinn Fein loses (they have already lost one due to boundary changes) forcing Sinn Fein into ministries that either lack importance or have been set to blow by Sinn Fein themselves.

The Slow Death of the UUP

Although the General Election saw the First Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson lose his Westminster seat to the Alliance, it is the UUP who truly lost in Northern Ireland. This party was once one of the big two in Northern Ireland and now they have lost the little UK representation they had, have we in the last few weeks witnessed a lurch towards death for the UUP?

Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.

On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.

Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?

Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.

Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.

Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.