UKIP, The New Third Party?

Recently at the UKIP Conference, newly re-elected leader Nigel Farage stated that after coming second in the Barnsley Central By-election, that UKIP's goal was to claim third place from the Liberal Democrats.

While the goal is ambitious I fear it may be over-reaching for UKIP for a number of reasons;

1) While UKIP achieved fourth in number of votes cast at the 2010 General Election, they trail the Liberal Democrats by 6 million (They can't all be students) which would take a huge effort to replicate in 2015 for UKIP

2) In terms of Commons seats UKIP ranks 13th on the League table (table includes speaker) having no seats but having the highest number of votes for a party with none. To take third from the Liberal Democrats would require a gain of 58 seats for UKIP (assuming Libdems didn't lose any)

3) UKIP holds no seats in the Devolved Celtic Fringe. The Liberal Democrats have 16 in Scotland, 5 in Wales and if you include their Sister party, Alliance, 7 in Northern Ireland.

4) UKIP holds supposedly 23 seats in councils across the UK the liberal Democrats currently sit on 4011


Realistically UKIP should attempt to become the Legitimate fourth party of the UK and try to break the Lib Dems place as sole Kingmaker in Parliament. To do this here is what I suggest;

1) UKIP should target seats in the Celtic Fringe, They did manage to achieve one of the four Welsh European seats in 2009 and in 2007 they came 6th in terms of party results (7th overall if including Trish Law) so perhaps Wales would be the place to get some Celtic Seats.
A potentially interesting side note is that due to the electoral system of Wales, Labour may end of one or two seats short of overall majority, perhaps presenting a new option besides the LibDems or Plaid Cymru for Labour to enter Coalition with.

In Northern Ireland, UKIP though running their own Candidates could perhaps strike some sort of deal with the TUV who they have a good relationship with (Offers opportunity to develop a Unionist link-up that if succeeds provides ammo to use against the Conservatives following the disaster of UCU-NF)

2) A Huge effort should go into the Council election that are also happening at the same time as the Celtic elections (English and Northern Irish Council election) a term that was used during the Irish General election was 'Gene-Pool'. The UKIP genetic soup is somewhat limited to a small crop of 12 MEPs and cache of councillors. As a target for councillors in May I would suggest 120, or to put it another way, larger than the DUP. They are the current 4th place holders with 8 Westminster Seats and have 4 Lords as opposed to UKIP's 2.

3) Should AV pass UKIP should attempt to develop some kind of transfer arrangement with smaller parties to try and break the big three deadlock (TUV in Northern Ireland would be prime candidate off the bat)

4) Aim for between 15-20 MEPs in the 2014 European elections. Euro elections are UKIP's bread and butter and they need to try and achieve a more solid second place (they tied with Labour last time around) Not only would it be a huge achievement for UKIP but would also increase their Gene-pool (God I love using that term) for the General election in 2015 as any MEPs hoping to hop houses would have had a lot of publicity within a year of going to the polls again.

Should everything go well UKIP could see themselves in a prime position to enter the House of Commons, but in the time between now and then a millions things could happen.

Any thoughts? leave a comment

Slow Death of The PUP

The UVF linked Progressive Unionist Party has over the last few months seen it's Heavyweights slowly drift away from the Party.

First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.

The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.

The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.

If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.

Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.

One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.

A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.


As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact

Sinn Fein Executive - The Weakest Link?

The Mandatory Coalition System of the Stormont administration has its supporters and its detractors. Often the Coalition is criticised as petty with the constituent parties trying to score cheap political points over perceived failing of their Coalition Colleagues.

But recently it has become increasing easy to criticise the Sinn Fein Front line.
Caitríona Ruane, the Education Minister has provided extra funding for Irish Medium schools with many seats unfilled while denying funds to integrated schools who are forced to turn pupils away, saying that the money is not there for the expansions schools seek while essentially setting up 4 new schools instead.

Michelle Gildernew, The Agriculture minister has cost Northern Ireland funding that it needs during this time of economic recovery due to the shambolic apporach to Farmers and EU grants which has incurred Northern Ireland millions in fines which will be applied to future funding.

With Sinn Fein MP Expenses coming under renewed fire from Westminster, Assembly Elections on the way and Fianna Fail setting up shop in Northern Ireland it is not unfeasible to say the Sinn Fein have some pressure on them.

Potentially the problems the Sinn Fein Executive have planned are part of a scorched earth strategy, setting up schools that will likely need to be closed due to lack of pupils and have problems with the EU needing to be resolved and then switching the ministerial briefs when the d'hondt system comes in. With some predicting Sinn fein advancing to be the biggest party they would have first pick of pretty much any ministry they liked.

However the problem Sinn Fein may face is that everyone has seen them setting up the pyres and this could backfire with Sinn Fein loses (they have already lost one due to boundary changes) forcing Sinn Fein into ministries that either lack importance or have been set to blow by Sinn Fein themselves.

Labour's counter-attack?

The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.

Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.

As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.

What next?

Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)

Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.

Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)

If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.

The Point?

Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.

The Slow Death of the UUP

Although the General Election saw the First Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson lose his Westminster seat to the Alliance, it is the UUP who truly lost in Northern Ireland. This party was once one of the big two in Northern Ireland and now they have lost the little UK representation they had, have we in the last few weeks witnessed a lurch towards death for the UUP?

Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.

On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.

Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?

Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.

Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.

Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.

Sinn Fein - General Election 2010

Sinn Fein, Second largest Party of the Northern Ireland and the only party operating on an All-Ireland basis.

Although in my last posts I have detailed what I think the Parties need to do in the General Election and in some cases what to do if they win some seats, Sinn Fein however is a different Animal in this election. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats it essentially lowers the number of actual seats, so if Sinn Fein maintain their 5 seats in Westminster it lowers the number of actual seats from 650 to 645.

In all honesty I don't think Sinn Fein should even run in this election here's why;

1) Money - with all the economic problems it seems baffling for Sinn Fein to spend so much money on a full Northern Ireland Campaign and it would be smarter for them to save their money for the Assembly Election next year

2) SDLP - the SDLP as Sinn Fein's rival for the nationalist vote would love for Sinn Fein to bow out as it would increase the Irish Nationalist representation to anywhere from 7 to 9 seats in Westminster and would make SDLP relevant, Sadly Sinn Fein don't want the SDLP relevant especially with the Assembly Election next year.

3) Voice - it's a sad fact that everywhere with a Sinn Fein MP takes away a voice from Westminster, though Sinn Fein MPs may be active in community the fact remains they don't do the basic job of representing their constituents in Westminster, which I feel is wrong.


I'm happy enough for Sinn Fein to run for Europe, Stormont and Local councils but I feel that the General election is not where they should be.