The SDLP, One of the parties in the Northern Ireland executive, 4th largest party of Northern Ireland.
The SDLP would love in this election to overtake Sinn Fein in seats and reclaim the position of Dominant Irish nationalist party in Westminster, Sadly as this is Margaret Ritchie first General election as Leader while Sinn Fein have both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Nationalist strongholds. However with the Unionist Pact for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein already look to lose a seat, the SDLP can only hope an agreement is not reached by the Unionists for South Belfast as well or the SDLP will most likely lose a seat as well.
Things I believe the SDLP should do during the election and after would be;
1) Unionist Civil War - Even though the DUP and UUP agreed on one Unity Candidate already doesn't Unionists are getting along, with the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) in the election fray as well and the loss of Lady Hermon for the UUP the Unionist seats will be an all out battle to see who will be the biggest Unionist Dog in the yard. The SDLP should avoid the topic too much in case to be seen as fanning the flames of discontent within the unionist community.
2) Sinn Fein - With Sinn Fein already looking like they've lost a seat the SDLP need to hammer them in the other two seats Sinn Fein have, attacking Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness would be a waste of resources, those two are firmly entrenched in their constituencies. Smart play made already by Ritchie turning down Gerry Adams' offer for a Nationalist Pact citing the hypocrisy in making a pact after bad mouthing the Unionists, made Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams (whose had a bad year already with his family problems and allegations from beyond the grave) look bad. It wasn;t a knockout punch for the SDLP but it was a clear warning shot that they want very little to do with Sinn Fein.
3) Justice - the entire devolution of Justice saga has given the SDLP ammunition against the DUP and Sinn Fein, Using that bullet at the right time could do some damage to the two parties records by highlighting how they are messing with the system to hurt the SDLP and UUP
4) New friends? - If Labour don't come out on top the SDLP should consider finding some new friends in Westminster, Possibles choices being the Celtic Bloc, Mebyon Kernow and the TUSC.
5) Early Start - as an Article in the BBC reecently said, Politics is a National Past time in Northern Ireland and the pinnacle of that is Stormont, the SDLP need to use the General election to get a running start at the Assembly election next year and pick out early targets so they can maximise their chances at moving up in the Stormont food chain. With early Prediction putting Sinn Fein as the top dog next year the SDLP have to make sure it doesn't happen at their expense.
For the SDLP the General Election will be the start of a Trial by Fire for Margaret Ritchie, If she can help build the SDLP (and knock Sinn Fein down a bit) she could become one of the Big Guns of Northern Irish politics, if She chooses to only sit in Westminster and the SDLP improve its standings she could make an interesting addition to a Labour Cabinet perhaps as the Northern Ireland Secretary (a position that may cease to exist if devolution continues). If she decided to follow Peter Robinson's idea and sit in Both Stormont and Westminster it could help her develop more of a relationship with Peter Robinson who does not get on well with McGuinness and potentially alter the entire power Dynamic of the Northern Ireland Executive and leave Sinn Fein in a similiar position as the one it is in down in the Republic of Ireland, Friendless.
Showing posts with label may 6 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label may 6 2010. Show all posts
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
Sunday, 11 April 2010
English Democrats - General Election 2010
The English Democrats, the supposed English version of The SNP and Plaid Cymru, will they join their nationalist brethren this year in parliament?
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
Sinn Fein - General Election 2010
Sinn Fein, Second largest Party of the Northern Ireland and the only party operating on an All-Ireland basis.
Although in my last posts I have detailed what I think the Parties need to do in the General Election and in some cases what to do if they win some seats, Sinn Fein however is a different Animal in this election. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats it essentially lowers the number of actual seats, so if Sinn Fein maintain their 5 seats in Westminster it lowers the number of actual seats from 650 to 645.
In all honesty I don't think Sinn Fein should even run in this election here's why;
1) Money - with all the economic problems it seems baffling for Sinn Fein to spend so much money on a full Northern Ireland Campaign and it would be smarter for them to save their money for the Assembly Election next year
2) SDLP - the SDLP as Sinn Fein's rival for the nationalist vote would love for Sinn Fein to bow out as it would increase the Irish Nationalist representation to anywhere from 7 to 9 seats in Westminster and would make SDLP relevant, Sadly Sinn Fein don't want the SDLP relevant especially with the Assembly Election next year.
3) Voice - it's a sad fact that everywhere with a Sinn Fein MP takes away a voice from Westminster, though Sinn Fein MPs may be active in community the fact remains they don't do the basic job of representing their constituents in Westminster, which I feel is wrong.
I'm happy enough for Sinn Fein to run for Europe, Stormont and Local councils but I feel that the General election is not where they should be.
Although in my last posts I have detailed what I think the Parties need to do in the General Election and in some cases what to do if they win some seats, Sinn Fein however is a different Animal in this election. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats it essentially lowers the number of actual seats, so if Sinn Fein maintain their 5 seats in Westminster it lowers the number of actual seats from 650 to 645.
In all honesty I don't think Sinn Fein should even run in this election here's why;
1) Money - with all the economic problems it seems baffling for Sinn Fein to spend so much money on a full Northern Ireland Campaign and it would be smarter for them to save their money for the Assembly Election next year
2) SDLP - the SDLP as Sinn Fein's rival for the nationalist vote would love for Sinn Fein to bow out as it would increase the Irish Nationalist representation to anywhere from 7 to 9 seats in Westminster and would make SDLP relevant, Sadly Sinn Fein don't want the SDLP relevant especially with the Assembly Election next year.
3) Voice - it's a sad fact that everywhere with a Sinn Fein MP takes away a voice from Westminster, though Sinn Fein MPs may be active in community the fact remains they don't do the basic job of representing their constituents in Westminster, which I feel is wrong.
I'm happy enough for Sinn Fein to run for Europe, Stormont and Local councils but I feel that the General election is not where they should be.
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - General Election 2010
The Democratic Unionist Party, Largest Party of in the Northern Irish Assembly and Largest Northern Irish Party in Westminster.
The DUP should have been going into this election with 9 incumbents however with the entire Iris Robinson Saga they are already down a seat.
The DUP will have problems from both sides of the Community in Northern Ireland but it is a strong possibility they will remain as the top Northern Irish dog in Westminster
1) The Best Offence is a Strong Defence - The DUP don't necessarily need to gain any more seats in this election merely hold onto what they already have. As with Lady Hermon in Down North and Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Sinn Fein and the UUP are already under threat. The main threat the DUP face is the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) as Jim Allister is considered a Heavyweight in terms on Unionist Politics and with Ian Paisley retiring and Peter Robinson embattled by his personal life, the TUV looks set to take possibly one seat from the DUP whose big guns are silenced.
2) Keep Calm - With the UUP tied to the Tories and the TUV viewed as Hardline the DUP have a chance now to renew their image by presenting themselves as a true Northern Irish Party which is working to fix the problems of Northern Ireland, to do this they must not fall back into old habits of Sectarian driven politics, if they can achieve this it will make them a more appealing ally to Lab/Con if they lack an overall majority by 9 or less seats (lacking a majority by 10 or more seats makes LibDems or the Celtic Bloc Kingmakers)
3) Avoid the two big dogs - If the DUP can avoid being overly critical of Labour and the Conservatives it again makes them a more appealing.
4) Build a Bridge - Before the current assembly it was the UUP and SDLP who were the big players, now its the DUP and Sinn Fein, if the DUP want to be kingmaker for Labour they need to be able to work with the SDLP more, this would benefit the SDLP by making them seem like the people who can look past the traditional divide and in the Assembly election in 2011 the SDLP could make gains against Sinn Fein by either forcing Sinn Fein to lessen their stances in some areas or more into the Hardline fringe with the TUV.
5) Annoy the Celtic bloc - Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones made a huge fuss about being excluded from the Leaders Debates, the DUP have more seats then either of the parties (DUP 8, SNP 6, Plaid 3) Robinson should push to challenge both of them on screen. This would serve many purposes; Reminder that it could be Northern Ireland not Scotland/Wales who have the keys to number 10, Bring Northern Irish Politics further into the UK mainstream, Humiliate the Celtic Bloc after their threats to sue over the Leader's Debates (Robinson didn't say much about them which makes Salmond and Jones look a bit stupid since they have less seats) and Give Robinson chance to be seen outside typical battle with Sinn Fein and increase his profile in the UK-wide Political scene
I feel if the DUP play this election right they could be in a great position not just in Westminster but in the Lead up to the Assembly election next year, your thoughts?
The DUP should have been going into this election with 9 incumbents however with the entire Iris Robinson Saga they are already down a seat.
The DUP will have problems from both sides of the Community in Northern Ireland but it is a strong possibility they will remain as the top Northern Irish dog in Westminster
1) The Best Offence is a Strong Defence - The DUP don't necessarily need to gain any more seats in this election merely hold onto what they already have. As with Lady Hermon in Down North and Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Sinn Fein and the UUP are already under threat. The main threat the DUP face is the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) as Jim Allister is considered a Heavyweight in terms on Unionist Politics and with Ian Paisley retiring and Peter Robinson embattled by his personal life, the TUV looks set to take possibly one seat from the DUP whose big guns are silenced.
2) Keep Calm - With the UUP tied to the Tories and the TUV viewed as Hardline the DUP have a chance now to renew their image by presenting themselves as a true Northern Irish Party which is working to fix the problems of Northern Ireland, to do this they must not fall back into old habits of Sectarian driven politics, if they can achieve this it will make them a more appealing ally to Lab/Con if they lack an overall majority by 9 or less seats (lacking a majority by 10 or more seats makes LibDems or the Celtic Bloc Kingmakers)
3) Avoid the two big dogs - If the DUP can avoid being overly critical of Labour and the Conservatives it again makes them a more appealing.
4) Build a Bridge - Before the current assembly it was the UUP and SDLP who were the big players, now its the DUP and Sinn Fein, if the DUP want to be kingmaker for Labour they need to be able to work with the SDLP more, this would benefit the SDLP by making them seem like the people who can look past the traditional divide and in the Assembly election in 2011 the SDLP could make gains against Sinn Fein by either forcing Sinn Fein to lessen their stances in some areas or more into the Hardline fringe with the TUV.
5) Annoy the Celtic bloc - Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones made a huge fuss about being excluded from the Leaders Debates, the DUP have more seats then either of the parties (DUP 8, SNP 6, Plaid 3) Robinson should push to challenge both of them on screen. This would serve many purposes; Reminder that it could be Northern Ireland not Scotland/Wales who have the keys to number 10, Bring Northern Irish Politics further into the UK mainstream, Humiliate the Celtic Bloc after their threats to sue over the Leader's Debates (Robinson didn't say much about them which makes Salmond and Jones look a bit stupid since they have less seats) and Give Robinson chance to be seen outside typical battle with Sinn Fein and increase his profile in the UK-wide Political scene
I feel if the DUP play this election right they could be in a great position not just in Westminster but in the Lead up to the Assembly election next year, your thoughts?
Mebyon Kernow - General election 2010
The Cornish Nationalist party, One of the smaller fish in the Pond that is British Politics but in this election they could break through into Westminster.
A question you may have is why the Cornish nationalists were not mentioned in my previous post on The Celtic Bloc, mainly it's because they are the smallest nationalist party, only running in the six Cornish seats, but after writing the last article I realised that this party may cause a few surprises were it to gain even one seat.
1) Get a Seat! - Obvious first point, Mebyon Kernow needs only one seat to make the point, it will scare the hell out of the Lib Dems and Conservatives (Labour is not liked in Cornwall) if they get one it will be huge exposure for them and could add an interesting new dynamic to the review of how Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get funded
2) The English Democrats - Should, come election day, The English Democrats and Mebyon Kernow achieve a seat between them, it could cause a bit of a dilemma for the Celtic Bloc, The extra seats would help them gain more influence but I doubt they'd be able to bring both the Cornish and English on board together. The English democrats want an English Parliament to counter the regionalisation the Labour government has implemented in England, The Cornish want more Autonomy from Westminster, so the Conflict in interests is obvious. If however Mebyon Kernow were to succeed in getting a seat or two and the English Democrats failed the Eng Dems could see the Cornish Join with the Celtic Bloc to pressure for more Autonomy with Plaid Cymru and the SNP while they are stuck at mayoral level in terms of influence.
3) *If MK get a seat and EngDems fail* - MK needs to use the one man Media magnet that is Alex Salmond, he may be a bit closer to independence than devolution than MK but he will bring MK attention which could help them look as a viable alternative to the LibDems in the South West of England
4) *if Both EngDems and MK achieve electoral success* - Try and reach an agreement due to the Cornish being a Celtic Peoples, perhaps the EngDems will go for it and the Celtic bloc could expand with both Mebyon Kernow and the English Democrats into a Nationalist Bloc (We'll ignore trying to get the SDLP on board for the moment)
5)*if Both achieve success but the Celtic bloc stick with the EngDems - it isn't game over for the MK, infact MK could join the SDLP in sitting with Labour in Westminster, it would mean Labour could be Propped in Government by a small nationalist following and would be more likely to give into Cornish Devolution ideas (SDLP who has huge Experience with Devolution would be a good friend for the MK)
Mebyon Kernow is a hard party to plan for due to their much lower profile. However their leader did take his ward by 78% I believe, so there is a definite following there, makes Cornwall and Interesting Battle ground and could spell disaster for the LibDems.
Anyone have any thoughts on MK?
A question you may have is why the Cornish nationalists were not mentioned in my previous post on The Celtic Bloc, mainly it's because they are the smallest nationalist party, only running in the six Cornish seats, but after writing the last article I realised that this party may cause a few surprises were it to gain even one seat.
1) Get a Seat! - Obvious first point, Mebyon Kernow needs only one seat to make the point, it will scare the hell out of the Lib Dems and Conservatives (Labour is not liked in Cornwall) if they get one it will be huge exposure for them and could add an interesting new dynamic to the review of how Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get funded
2) The English Democrats - Should, come election day, The English Democrats and Mebyon Kernow achieve a seat between them, it could cause a bit of a dilemma for the Celtic Bloc, The extra seats would help them gain more influence but I doubt they'd be able to bring both the Cornish and English on board together. The English democrats want an English Parliament to counter the regionalisation the Labour government has implemented in England, The Cornish want more Autonomy from Westminster, so the Conflict in interests is obvious. If however Mebyon Kernow were to succeed in getting a seat or two and the English Democrats failed the Eng Dems could see the Cornish Join with the Celtic Bloc to pressure for more Autonomy with Plaid Cymru and the SNP while they are stuck at mayoral level in terms of influence.
3) *If MK get a seat and EngDems fail* - MK needs to use the one man Media magnet that is Alex Salmond, he may be a bit closer to independence than devolution than MK but he will bring MK attention which could help them look as a viable alternative to the LibDems in the South West of England
4) *if Both EngDems and MK achieve electoral success* - Try and reach an agreement due to the Cornish being a Celtic Peoples, perhaps the EngDems will go for it and the Celtic bloc could expand with both Mebyon Kernow and the English Democrats into a Nationalist Bloc (We'll ignore trying to get the SDLP on board for the moment)
5)*if Both achieve success but the Celtic bloc stick with the EngDems - it isn't game over for the MK, infact MK could join the SDLP in sitting with Labour in Westminster, it would mean Labour could be Propped in Government by a small nationalist following and would be more likely to give into Cornish Devolution ideas (SDLP who has huge Experience with Devolution would be a good friend for the MK)
Mebyon Kernow is a hard party to plan for due to their much lower profile. However their leader did take his ward by 78% I believe, so there is a definite following there, makes Cornwall and Interesting Battle ground and could spell disaster for the LibDems.
Anyone have any thoughts on MK?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)