With the vote in the commons and hopefully (for the Lib Dems) referendum on switching to the AV system for elections some are calling that it does not go far enough.
But as question that is the title of this post asks... what if PR had been used in 2010?
Well as PR is based on percentage of the vote won I'd best give the result for those who would qualify assuming that 1% was required to win seats.
Votes
Conservative - 36.1% (36)
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 23%
UKIP - 3.1%
BNP - 1.9%
SNP - 1.7%
Green - 1%
Total - 95.8% of vote qualifies for seats
Seats (based on %)
Conservative - 234.65
Labour - 188.5
Lib Dem - 149.5
UKIP - 20.15
BNP - 12.35
SNP - 11.05
Green - 6.5
Total 622.7
Time for a Question within a Question, when deciding actual seats, do I simply count every actual seat won and ignore point places or do I round up and down accordingly
1)If I were to ignore decimal places for seats the final result would be
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lid - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 12
SNP - 11
Gre - 6
Result - 620 seats - Hung Parliament - Cons lacking 77 seats for majority of 1
Almost poetically this result means that a Lib/Lab coalition would have been numerically possible as they would equal 337
2)If however I were to round up we get another question..do we round up the percent of votes cast for everyone? Then a party would need 0.5% of the vote to qualify for a percent of the seats.
2a) if we take it that a party need 1% to qualify for seats but then were rounded up
Votes/share/Seats
Cons - 36.1% - 36% - 234
Lab - 29% - 29% - 188
Lib - 23% - 23% - 149
UKIP - 3.1% - 3% - 19.5 seats = 20
BNP - 1.9% - 2% - 13
SNP - 1.7% - 2% - 13
Gre - 1% - 1% - 6.5 seats = 7
Total seats - 624 - Hung Parliament - Cons lack 79 seats for majority of 1
Really only slight differences to bottom of the table that increase the number of seats and the number of seats needed for a majority.
2b) If rounding up as used throughout the whole process 3 more parties would qualify for seats
Sinn Fein - 0.6% of Vote
DUP - 0.6% of Vote
Plaid Cymru - 0.6% of Vote
Each would be rounded up to 1% and would then qualify for the same 7 seats as the Greens meaning the final table with rounding would look something like this;
Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lib - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 13
SNP - 13
Gre - 7
DUP - 7
Sinn - 7
Cym - 7
Total Seats - 645 - Hung Parliament - 323 needed for majority
These seat numbers are of course based on the idea that the Commons remained at 650 going into the election. It would most likely have to be decided how many seats would be in the commons prior to any election.
What I find most interesting is just how close the Lib Dems and Labour really are.
So hopefully this has given you an idea on how the current parliament would have looked like had PR been used.
Showing posts with label Lib Dems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lib Dems. Show all posts
Thursday, 23 December 2010
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Vince Cable on way out?
This Business Secretary Vince Cable was recorded by undercover journalists from the Telegraph claiming that he had declared War on the NewsCorp Empire and that if he felt the coalition was moving to far away from his beliefs would use his 'Nuclear Option' and resign from Government and bring the coalition down around him.
By declaring unilateral war on Rupert Murdoch and (kinda)publicly revealing his Nuclear option, he has not only lost the powers he planned to use against Murdoch but also had his Nuclear option disarmed. The accusations have now begun from Labour that Cable has retained his Cabinet position simply to prop up the coalition and keep the Social Democratic wing of the Lib Dems happy.
But why is Vince still on the Cabinet?
Labour's idea that Cable has been retained to keep the Lib Dems happy isn't that far-fetched, He is after all one of the highest profile Lib Dems that their small parliamentary group has. Keeping him, though unpopular, keeps the Lib Dems from being overshadowed by the Tories.
However stripped of his powers to act in the BSkyB takeover has made Vince Cable a bit of a lame duck, his credibility, in using the powers afforded to his position as Business Secretary, is severely damaged. But perhaps Vince is simply being kept on the cabinet to keep the seat warm over the holidays as the Coalition hope to bring David Laws back onto the Coalition frontline.
David Laws is a Lib Dem who resigned from government due to issues with his expenses, however he has managed to avoid the expenses stigma due to the unceremonial reveal of his sexuality as collateral that accompanied his expense account. With a career as an investment banker backing his CV he would be a Prime Candidate to move onto the Business Portfolio.
For Vince Cable, he knows that being asked to leave the Cabinet would be his own fault, but how would he find being pushed to the backbenches with Lib Dems unhappy with the coalition's policies?
By declaring unilateral war on Rupert Murdoch and (kinda)publicly revealing his Nuclear option, he has not only lost the powers he planned to use against Murdoch but also had his Nuclear option disarmed. The accusations have now begun from Labour that Cable has retained his Cabinet position simply to prop up the coalition and keep the Social Democratic wing of the Lib Dems happy.
But why is Vince still on the Cabinet?
Labour's idea that Cable has been retained to keep the Lib Dems happy isn't that far-fetched, He is after all one of the highest profile Lib Dems that their small parliamentary group has. Keeping him, though unpopular, keeps the Lib Dems from being overshadowed by the Tories.
However stripped of his powers to act in the BSkyB takeover has made Vince Cable a bit of a lame duck, his credibility, in using the powers afforded to his position as Business Secretary, is severely damaged. But perhaps Vince is simply being kept on the cabinet to keep the seat warm over the holidays as the Coalition hope to bring David Laws back onto the Coalition frontline.
David Laws is a Lib Dem who resigned from government due to issues with his expenses, however he has managed to avoid the expenses stigma due to the unceremonial reveal of his sexuality as collateral that accompanied his expense account. With a career as an investment banker backing his CV he would be a Prime Candidate to move onto the Business Portfolio.
For Vince Cable, he knows that being asked to leave the Cabinet would be his own fault, but how would he find being pushed to the backbenches with Lib Dems unhappy with the coalition's policies?
Thursday, 9 December 2010
Tuition Fee Crisis - The Liberal Democrats Fallout...
Today (9/12/10) saw the vote in the House of Commons on the controversial Tuition fees rise for Universities in England and the day almost half the Liberal Democrats rebelled...
In the end 28 Lib Dem MPs voted for, 21 voted against, 6 abstained and 2 were at the climate summit in Mexico... On paper the result is simple 28 Lib Dems backed the Coalition, 27 went against it (albeit in different ways) and 2 will have the pleasure of being able to say they were not involved in. This rebellion also saw Lib Dem MPs Mike Crockart and Jenny Willott resign their unpaid Junior ministerial positions.
But what next? Other than a guarantee of more student action there is many possibilities yet few certainties as to what the fallout of this rebellion will be, but here are some ideas...
1) Seats at the Table - Although an unpaid position these Junior Position will become a scrap to be fought over after this rebellion, Will the rebels be replaced by Lib Dems again? if so we could see Clegg Loyalists being rewarded for sticking with the coalition, if not the newly promoted Conservative Junior ministers will serve as a symbolic smack to the Lib Dems, the message clear, Rock the boat and you will lose out...
2) The Old Guard - Both Former Lib Dem leaders Sir Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy voted against the plans and this could further upset the Clegg Leadership, with the Old leaders set firmly against him, he will be held up as a symbol for the 'Corruption' that has taken hold of the Lib Dem leadership, Which although bad for Clegg and his Loyalists could help mitigate losses in the 2011 Assembly/Local elections where Lib Dems will be able to position themselves as Anti-Clegg to help save themselves.
3) A Matter of Time - At this point I think it is only a matter of time before a defection or mass defection bites the Lib Dems. If there is a defection it will be interesting to see what road any would be deserters would take. Simply leaving the Government and sitting as an Independent Lib Dem could be an option, but it would most likely lead to the party revoking membership to save face. Jumping ship to Labour could be an option and would definitely raise the profile of any backbench Lib Dem. if there Defector wanted to avoid the Big three, jumping to the Greens might be a good idea and perhaps give them a PR boost that they could parley into more Devolved seats especially in Wales where they have none. The most extreme option would be to jump to a very small party, depending on where any defector is based this could be anyone from Mebyon Kernow if in Cornwall, to the Liberals, to any of the parties of the Left situated around the UK. Sitting as the only independent probably wont be an appealing prospect to any MP.
4) Backlash - With the Government majority of 83 shrunk to 21 expect the Conservatives to be quite annoyed at their Junior Partner's inability to keep their own house in order, especially with the current situation with the Governing Coalition of Ireland whose problems have been magnified as all of Europe scrutinises them. This could potentially see some Lib Dems gains of being in the coalition held back or denied entirely, as making the Lib Dems seem less relevant would help both Labour and the Tories destroy their 'King-maker' position
5) Firing Line - if you thought Labour's constant attack on the Lib Dems was too much, prepare to be snowed under as absolutely every other party in the House of Commons will be taking every opportunity to take a shot at the Lib Dems (as evidenced by the DUP's Nigel Dodds question during PMQs where he likened the Lib Dems to FIFA)
It is simply to close to Assembly election for any party with any sort of representation to resist being able to score the easy political points by publically humiliating the Lib Dems.
Only in the coming months where the Lib Dems prepare for the numerous elections around the UK will the exact Fallout of this rebellion be felt, Clegg may have had the support of 27 other MPs today but that may be all he's left with regardless of how the Lib Dems do next year as more and more turn away from his deal with Cameron.
In the end 28 Lib Dem MPs voted for, 21 voted against, 6 abstained and 2 were at the climate summit in Mexico... On paper the result is simple 28 Lib Dems backed the Coalition, 27 went against it (albeit in different ways) and 2 will have the pleasure of being able to say they were not involved in. This rebellion also saw Lib Dem MPs Mike Crockart and Jenny Willott resign their unpaid Junior ministerial positions.
But what next? Other than a guarantee of more student action there is many possibilities yet few certainties as to what the fallout of this rebellion will be, but here are some ideas...
1) Seats at the Table - Although an unpaid position these Junior Position will become a scrap to be fought over after this rebellion, Will the rebels be replaced by Lib Dems again? if so we could see Clegg Loyalists being rewarded for sticking with the coalition, if not the newly promoted Conservative Junior ministers will serve as a symbolic smack to the Lib Dems, the message clear, Rock the boat and you will lose out...
2) The Old Guard - Both Former Lib Dem leaders Sir Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy voted against the plans and this could further upset the Clegg Leadership, with the Old leaders set firmly against him, he will be held up as a symbol for the 'Corruption' that has taken hold of the Lib Dem leadership, Which although bad for Clegg and his Loyalists could help mitigate losses in the 2011 Assembly/Local elections where Lib Dems will be able to position themselves as Anti-Clegg to help save themselves.
3) A Matter of Time - At this point I think it is only a matter of time before a defection or mass defection bites the Lib Dems. If there is a defection it will be interesting to see what road any would be deserters would take. Simply leaving the Government and sitting as an Independent Lib Dem could be an option, but it would most likely lead to the party revoking membership to save face. Jumping ship to Labour could be an option and would definitely raise the profile of any backbench Lib Dem. if there Defector wanted to avoid the Big three, jumping to the Greens might be a good idea and perhaps give them a PR boost that they could parley into more Devolved seats especially in Wales where they have none. The most extreme option would be to jump to a very small party, depending on where any defector is based this could be anyone from Mebyon Kernow if in Cornwall, to the Liberals, to any of the parties of the Left situated around the UK. Sitting as the only independent probably wont be an appealing prospect to any MP.
4) Backlash - With the Government majority of 83 shrunk to 21 expect the Conservatives to be quite annoyed at their Junior Partner's inability to keep their own house in order, especially with the current situation with the Governing Coalition of Ireland whose problems have been magnified as all of Europe scrutinises them. This could potentially see some Lib Dems gains of being in the coalition held back or denied entirely, as making the Lib Dems seem less relevant would help both Labour and the Tories destroy their 'King-maker' position
5) Firing Line - if you thought Labour's constant attack on the Lib Dems was too much, prepare to be snowed under as absolutely every other party in the House of Commons will be taking every opportunity to take a shot at the Lib Dems (as evidenced by the DUP's Nigel Dodds question during PMQs where he likened the Lib Dems to FIFA)
It is simply to close to Assembly election for any party with any sort of representation to resist being able to score the easy political points by publically humiliating the Lib Dems.
Only in the coming months where the Lib Dems prepare for the numerous elections around the UK will the exact Fallout of this rebellion be felt, Clegg may have had the support of 27 other MPs today but that may be all he's left with regardless of how the Lib Dems do next year as more and more turn away from his deal with Cameron.
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Possible UK Coalition Deals
In honour of the first 100 days of the Tory/Libdem Coalition the BBC decided to fun a feature on what if they hadn't got together (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11009623)
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Sunday, 16 May 2010
House of Lords Reform
One of the key areas of policy that the Lib-Con Coalition will be focusing on is electoral reform. Already we have seen plans for a referendum for the AV system to be used for election to the House of Commons. but what about the House of Lords.
Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;
Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.
Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.
Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.
I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.
The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.
Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;
Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.
Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.
Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.
I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.
The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Labour's counter-attack?
The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Sunday, 11 April 2010
English Democrats - General Election 2010
The English Democrats, the supposed English version of The SNP and Plaid Cymru, will they join their nationalist brethren this year in parliament?
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Mebyon Kernow - General election 2010
The Cornish Nationalist party, One of the smaller fish in the Pond that is British Politics but in this election they could break through into Westminster.
A question you may have is why the Cornish nationalists were not mentioned in my previous post on The Celtic Bloc, mainly it's because they are the smallest nationalist party, only running in the six Cornish seats, but after writing the last article I realised that this party may cause a few surprises were it to gain even one seat.
1) Get a Seat! - Obvious first point, Mebyon Kernow needs only one seat to make the point, it will scare the hell out of the Lib Dems and Conservatives (Labour is not liked in Cornwall) if they get one it will be huge exposure for them and could add an interesting new dynamic to the review of how Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get funded
2) The English Democrats - Should, come election day, The English Democrats and Mebyon Kernow achieve a seat between them, it could cause a bit of a dilemma for the Celtic Bloc, The extra seats would help them gain more influence but I doubt they'd be able to bring both the Cornish and English on board together. The English democrats want an English Parliament to counter the regionalisation the Labour government has implemented in England, The Cornish want more Autonomy from Westminster, so the Conflict in interests is obvious. If however Mebyon Kernow were to succeed in getting a seat or two and the English Democrats failed the Eng Dems could see the Cornish Join with the Celtic Bloc to pressure for more Autonomy with Plaid Cymru and the SNP while they are stuck at mayoral level in terms of influence.
3) *If MK get a seat and EngDems fail* - MK needs to use the one man Media magnet that is Alex Salmond, he may be a bit closer to independence than devolution than MK but he will bring MK attention which could help them look as a viable alternative to the LibDems in the South West of England
4) *if Both EngDems and MK achieve electoral success* - Try and reach an agreement due to the Cornish being a Celtic Peoples, perhaps the EngDems will go for it and the Celtic bloc could expand with both Mebyon Kernow and the English Democrats into a Nationalist Bloc (We'll ignore trying to get the SDLP on board for the moment)
5)*if Both achieve success but the Celtic bloc stick with the EngDems - it isn't game over for the MK, infact MK could join the SDLP in sitting with Labour in Westminster, it would mean Labour could be Propped in Government by a small nationalist following and would be more likely to give into Cornish Devolution ideas (SDLP who has huge Experience with Devolution would be a good friend for the MK)
Mebyon Kernow is a hard party to plan for due to their much lower profile. However their leader did take his ward by 78% I believe, so there is a definite following there, makes Cornwall and Interesting Battle ground and could spell disaster for the LibDems.
Anyone have any thoughts on MK?
A question you may have is why the Cornish nationalists were not mentioned in my previous post on The Celtic Bloc, mainly it's because they are the smallest nationalist party, only running in the six Cornish seats, but after writing the last article I realised that this party may cause a few surprises were it to gain even one seat.
1) Get a Seat! - Obvious first point, Mebyon Kernow needs only one seat to make the point, it will scare the hell out of the Lib Dems and Conservatives (Labour is not liked in Cornwall) if they get one it will be huge exposure for them and could add an interesting new dynamic to the review of how Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland get funded
2) The English Democrats - Should, come election day, The English Democrats and Mebyon Kernow achieve a seat between them, it could cause a bit of a dilemma for the Celtic Bloc, The extra seats would help them gain more influence but I doubt they'd be able to bring both the Cornish and English on board together. The English democrats want an English Parliament to counter the regionalisation the Labour government has implemented in England, The Cornish want more Autonomy from Westminster, so the Conflict in interests is obvious. If however Mebyon Kernow were to succeed in getting a seat or two and the English Democrats failed the Eng Dems could see the Cornish Join with the Celtic Bloc to pressure for more Autonomy with Plaid Cymru and the SNP while they are stuck at mayoral level in terms of influence.
3) *If MK get a seat and EngDems fail* - MK needs to use the one man Media magnet that is Alex Salmond, he may be a bit closer to independence than devolution than MK but he will bring MK attention which could help them look as a viable alternative to the LibDems in the South West of England
4) *if Both EngDems and MK achieve electoral success* - Try and reach an agreement due to the Cornish being a Celtic Peoples, perhaps the EngDems will go for it and the Celtic bloc could expand with both Mebyon Kernow and the English Democrats into a Nationalist Bloc (We'll ignore trying to get the SDLP on board for the moment)
5)*if Both achieve success but the Celtic bloc stick with the EngDems - it isn't game over for the MK, infact MK could join the SDLP in sitting with Labour in Westminster, it would mean Labour could be Propped in Government by a small nationalist following and would be more likely to give into Cornish Devolution ideas (SDLP who has huge Experience with Devolution would be a good friend for the MK)
Mebyon Kernow is a hard party to plan for due to their much lower profile. However their leader did take his ward by 78% I believe, so there is a definite following there, makes Cornwall and Interesting Battle ground and could spell disaster for the LibDems.
Anyone have any thoughts on MK?
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