What if Proportional Representation had been used in the 2010 UK General Election?

With the vote in the commons and hopefully (for the Lib Dems) referendum on switching to the AV system for elections some are calling that it does not go far enough.

But as question that is the title of this post asks... what if PR had been used in 2010?

Well as PR is based on percentage of the vote won I'd best give the result for those who would qualify assuming that 1% was required to win seats.

Votes
Conservative - 36.1% (36)
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 23%
UKIP - 3.1%
BNP - 1.9%
SNP - 1.7%
Green - 1%
Total - 95.8% of vote qualifies for seats

Seats (based on %)
Conservative - 234.65
Labour - 188.5
Lib Dem - 149.5
UKIP - 20.15
BNP - 12.35
SNP - 11.05
Green - 6.5
Total 622.7

Time for a Question within a Question, when deciding actual seats, do I simply count every actual seat won and ignore point places or do I round up and down accordingly

1)If I were to ignore decimal places for seats the final result would be

Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lid - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 12
SNP - 11
Gre - 6
Result - 620 seats - Hung Parliament - Cons lacking 77 seats for majority of 1

Almost poetically this result means that a Lib/Lab coalition would have been numerically possible as they would equal 337

2)If however I were to round up we get another question..do we round up the percent of votes cast for everyone? Then a party would need 0.5% of the vote to qualify for a percent of the seats.

2a) if we take it that a party need 1% to qualify for seats but then were rounded up

Votes/share/Seats
Cons - 36.1% - 36% - 234
Lab - 29% - 29% - 188
Lib - 23% - 23% - 149
UKIP - 3.1% - 3% - 19.5 seats = 20
BNP - 1.9% - 2% - 13
SNP - 1.7% - 2% - 13
Gre - 1% - 1% - 6.5 seats = 7
Total seats - 624 - Hung Parliament - Cons lack 79 seats for majority of 1

Really only slight differences to bottom of the table that increase the number of seats and the number of seats needed for a majority.

2b) If rounding up as used throughout the whole process 3 more parties would qualify for seats

Sinn Fein - 0.6% of Vote
DUP - 0.6% of Vote
Plaid Cymru - 0.6% of Vote

Each would be rounded up to 1% and would then qualify for the same 7 seats as the Greens meaning the final table with rounding would look something like this;

Con - 234
Lab - 188
Lib - 149
UKIP - 20
BNP - 13
SNP - 13
Gre - 7
DUP - 7
Sinn - 7
Cym - 7

Total Seats - 645 - Hung Parliament - 323 needed for majority

These seat numbers are of course based on the idea that the Commons remained at 650 going into the election. It would most likely have to be decided how many seats would be in the commons prior to any election.

What I find most interesting is just how close the Lib Dems and Labour really are.

So hopefully this has given you an idea on how the current parliament would have looked like had PR been used.

General Election 2010 - Possible Governments

This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.

Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.

1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.

2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.

3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.

4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.

The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.

Green Party - General Election 2010

The Green Party, which I don't truly understand. Not their policies, they're pretty clear, it's their place in the Political battlefield of the UK.

Let us begin, if the election was last year the Greens would be very happy, New leader, the Copenhagen Debacle, it was Prime Green time, sadly that quickly passed due to the massive issue of the Economy in which the Greens are lacking in any real substance. They then ruled out working with any other party in the event of an hung parliament which I view as a mistake as with hung parliament being constantly mentioned every party should have been trying to make themselves seem approachable, at a price. So really the Greens have been removed from the field before even the Campaigns began and with their huge prediction of gaining one seat, they are now in the same league as RESPECT. If RESPECT were to somehow gain three seats in total at this election the Greens are going to be looking very very weak in terms of influence, as even with the expense scandal, the economy, Copenhagen and a myriad of other issues the greens still cannot break through. my advice to them is pretty straight forward;

1) English parliament - Campaigning for a PR elected English Parliament to increase Green officials, with 1 in Northern Ireland and 2 in Scotland they need more and more exposure and by arguing that an English Parliament could handle tackling the enviromental issues in England they could do ok.

2) Make Some friends - The Greens don't have any allies that I know off, perhaps looking at some other moderate parties could help their chances with an electoral pact.