This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Showing posts with label Celtic Bloc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Celtic Bloc. Show all posts
Saturday, 8 May 2010
Friday, 9 April 2010
The Celtic Bloc - General Election 2010
In the lead up to the Election the Scottish Nationalist Part and Plaid Cymru have decided to team up and form the Celtic Bloc,
As they are working as a Unit I shall treat them as such in this post though if requested I will do separate ones for each party
1) Support the English Democrats - although there is confusion about whether or not the English Democrats are just a slightly nicer version of the BNP or just the English version of SNP/Plaid the Celtic Bloc should try to help the English Democrats if the Latter is the case. Why? Because even if the EngDems get only one or two seats that is one or two seats to add to the Celtic Bloc (which may need to be renamed if the EngDems do get a seat) and every seat the Celtic/Nat Bloc gets the more they become a challenger to the Lib Dems.
2) Woo the SDLP - Pretty much the same idea again with the Northern Irish SDLP, problem is they already support Labour so it will take a bit more work, however as the SNP and SDLP share similar constitutional goals it wouldn't be to difficult to see either the SDLP defect to the Celtic/Nat bloc if the Conservatives wind up on top but short of overall control, This could give a Nat bloc of somewhere around 15-20 seats, enough to give someone the support if one of the Big Two fall only a little bit short of overall majority.
3) Nationalist War - Make it as clear as possible the lack of racial motivated policy within the Celtic Bloc so as to demonstrate as many differences as possible between themselves and the BNP, it's an obvious point but there are alot of people running around with nationalist in their name so it can't hurt to point it out.
4) Don't go Overboard - I aim this one particularly at the SNP who are more pronounced than Plaid in their ideas. If the SNP go crazy with what their demands for support are they are giving Power to the Lib Dems as they will scare off any chance that Lab/Con will come to them for help.
5) Criticise the Pact - The Tories have an electoral Pact with the UUP of Northern Ireland, it can be a huge target if played right, particulary in regards to getting the SDLP into the Bloc as they too aren't happy with it and also in getting the Tories to think about their relationship with the UUP if they need the Celtic Bloc's help.
6) Pick the Right fight - Labour is a Bleeding Giant of Seats right now, if the Celtic Bloc pick the right ones they could steal a couple of seats and put themselves in a more comfy position for the next 4 years.
7) Watch Out for the Other little Guys - the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition "TUSC" (made up of; Socialist Party, Socialist Resistance, Socialist Workers Party and Solidarity) are running just under 45 candidates, 10 of them are in Scotland with a few in Wales. Since they have all decided to play nice this could hurt the both the Bloc and Labour since theses seats are already left leaning and could either weaken the Bloc enough for another party to take the seat or if the electorate decide to really punish the more well established parties give them a seat or two.
The Engdems have signed up with the Alliance for Democracy (made up of; Christian Party, English Democrats, Jury Team, Popular Alliance, UK First Party and Veritas) It is doubtful these parties will make a break through in terms of seats (except the Eng Dems, and the independents will be vague have their own positions) but the AOD could still hurt votes for the other parties depending on where their candidates pop up.
As they are working as a Unit I shall treat them as such in this post though if requested I will do separate ones for each party
1) Support the English Democrats - although there is confusion about whether or not the English Democrats are just a slightly nicer version of the BNP or just the English version of SNP/Plaid the Celtic Bloc should try to help the English Democrats if the Latter is the case. Why? Because even if the EngDems get only one or two seats that is one or two seats to add to the Celtic Bloc (which may need to be renamed if the EngDems do get a seat) and every seat the Celtic/Nat Bloc gets the more they become a challenger to the Lib Dems.
2) Woo the SDLP - Pretty much the same idea again with the Northern Irish SDLP, problem is they already support Labour so it will take a bit more work, however as the SNP and SDLP share similar constitutional goals it wouldn't be to difficult to see either the SDLP defect to the Celtic/Nat bloc if the Conservatives wind up on top but short of overall control, This could give a Nat bloc of somewhere around 15-20 seats, enough to give someone the support if one of the Big Two fall only a little bit short of overall majority.
3) Nationalist War - Make it as clear as possible the lack of racial motivated policy within the Celtic Bloc so as to demonstrate as many differences as possible between themselves and the BNP, it's an obvious point but there are alot of people running around with nationalist in their name so it can't hurt to point it out.
4) Don't go Overboard - I aim this one particularly at the SNP who are more pronounced than Plaid in their ideas. If the SNP go crazy with what their demands for support are they are giving Power to the Lib Dems as they will scare off any chance that Lab/Con will come to them for help.
5) Criticise the Pact - The Tories have an electoral Pact with the UUP of Northern Ireland, it can be a huge target if played right, particulary in regards to getting the SDLP into the Bloc as they too aren't happy with it and also in getting the Tories to think about their relationship with the UUP if they need the Celtic Bloc's help.
6) Pick the Right fight - Labour is a Bleeding Giant of Seats right now, if the Celtic Bloc pick the right ones they could steal a couple of seats and put themselves in a more comfy position for the next 4 years.
7) Watch Out for the Other little Guys - the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition "TUSC" (made up of; Socialist Party, Socialist Resistance, Socialist Workers Party and Solidarity) are running just under 45 candidates, 10 of them are in Scotland with a few in Wales. Since they have all decided to play nice this could hurt the both the Bloc and Labour since theses seats are already left leaning and could either weaken the Bloc enough for another party to take the seat or if the electorate decide to really punish the more well established parties give them a seat or two.
The Engdems have signed up with the Alliance for Democracy (made up of; Christian Party, English Democrats, Jury Team, Popular Alliance, UK First Party and Veritas) It is doubtful these parties will make a break through in terms of seats (except the Eng Dems, and the independents will be vague have their own positions) but the AOD could still hurt votes for the other parties depending on where their candidates pop up.
The Liberal Democrats - General Election 2010
The Liberal Democrats, the UK's third Party, the other guys, the Under-underdogs....
Going into this election Nick Clegg (anyone ask who that is and I will have to hit you with a shovel) said he wanted to be Prime Minister, sadly for this ambitious LibDem he hasn't a hope, but just because Little Nicky won't achieve his dream doesn't mean it's all over for the LibDems.
As many of the pollsters are predicting we may have a Hung Parliament as the grand result of this General election, The Lib Dems must ensure this if they wish to move up in the world. With a Hung Parliament Little Nicky, whose been mocked time and time again for being the invisible man of the UK political scene, will be the King Maker and the keys to power will rest with the Liberal Democrats. If it seems like i'm stating the obvious, I am, got to cover as much as I can, makes me seem more clever.
To achieve the hung parliament here is what I think the Lib Dems need to do.
1) Defend the Southwest from the Tory advance - an obvious one to start off with but if the Lib Dems lose the south west it may knock them down to the same level as the Celtic Bloc and Northern Irish parties and make them completely irrelevant for 4-5 years.
2) Attack the SNP - the SNP have set themselves a hefty target of 20 seats (at least Alex Salmond has) and are planning on bleeding Labour to get them, the Lib Dems need to go to all out war with the SNP, as since the SNP have most of the seats in the Celtic Bloc taking them out will eliminate the nationalist threat meaning the next contender for the King Maker Position would be the DUP of Northern Ireland. By breaking the SNP the Lib Dems stay as first in line to be King Maker. (Provided of course Lab/Con lack 15+ seats of and overall majority)
3) Back the other little guys - Within Tory Territory (South-east and Middle England) there lies a small army of smaller parties in constituencies where the Lib Dems sadly have very little hope. By maybe suggesting that voters should look to some of the the smaller parties to punish the Larger two for the expenses scandal and corruption. This one can potentially backfire depending on how the Lib Dems put it across as they themselves are a big party though did not take as much flak from the Expenses and aren't in enough of a position to be corrupt. Backing the little guys may hurt the Tories in their safe seats enough for Labour, UKIP or maybe an independent to nick a seat. If anything it may put the Conservatives one short of that overall majority but it's better than nothing.
4) Start talking about the Alliance party - The Alliance party are essentially the Northern Irish Lib Dems who sadly do not even have a hope of getting one seat. But every vote that is cast for them weakens the nagging sectarian headcount Northern Ireland gets into around every election and potentially could uproot some of the incumbents from supposedly safe seats. If anything this is more a Long-term idea to make the Alliance look like a credible Party as the few seats they do get in the Northern Irish Assembly give the Lib Dems some friends at the devolved level.(Assembly elections next year after all)
5) Use Charles Kennedy - The man is a legend like John Prescott, yes he was in the Political scene by his admission of a Drinking problem but that makes him the seem more human to the common voter as opposed to the squeaky clean possible cyborg that is Cameron. Also Nick right now is relying on Vince Cable a bit to much in my view, Bringing Kennedy back up gives the Lib Dems a slightly more recognisable Front Line and shows that Brown isn;t the only one with a team behind him.
6) Europe - the Lib Dems need to use the Europe rounds when in the political gunfight of this election, mainly in seats where there is a strong Con/UKIP presence not so much as a campaign issue, It's more a way to cripple the Tories as Europe seems to make Tories bicker and UKIP could use the chance to talk about their favourite subject.
7) Find the right Balance - the Lib Dems have always been a party with good ideas but never got the coverage, now in election time when the cameras are actually pointing at them Clegg is bouncing around the country with very little policy talk, just meet and greets and photo ops, The Lib Dems did well in the Chancellors debate and they need to use the press time to blast the fact that they actually have some decent policies.
I;m aware some of these are pretty obvious but it's simply to provide what I think would be a good tactical plan for the election, the Lib Dems are a big enough party that it makes it dificult to plot a detailed tactical plan as they are almost everywhere
Going into this election Nick Clegg (anyone ask who that is and I will have to hit you with a shovel) said he wanted to be Prime Minister, sadly for this ambitious LibDem he hasn't a hope, but just because Little Nicky won't achieve his dream doesn't mean it's all over for the LibDems.
As many of the pollsters are predicting we may have a Hung Parliament as the grand result of this General election, The Lib Dems must ensure this if they wish to move up in the world. With a Hung Parliament Little Nicky, whose been mocked time and time again for being the invisible man of the UK political scene, will be the King Maker and the keys to power will rest with the Liberal Democrats. If it seems like i'm stating the obvious, I am, got to cover as much as I can, makes me seem more clever.
To achieve the hung parliament here is what I think the Lib Dems need to do.
1) Defend the Southwest from the Tory advance - an obvious one to start off with but if the Lib Dems lose the south west it may knock them down to the same level as the Celtic Bloc and Northern Irish parties and make them completely irrelevant for 4-5 years.
2) Attack the SNP - the SNP have set themselves a hefty target of 20 seats (at least Alex Salmond has) and are planning on bleeding Labour to get them, the Lib Dems need to go to all out war with the SNP, as since the SNP have most of the seats in the Celtic Bloc taking them out will eliminate the nationalist threat meaning the next contender for the King Maker Position would be the DUP of Northern Ireland. By breaking the SNP the Lib Dems stay as first in line to be King Maker. (Provided of course Lab/Con lack 15+ seats of and overall majority)
3) Back the other little guys - Within Tory Territory (South-east and Middle England) there lies a small army of smaller parties in constituencies where the Lib Dems sadly have very little hope. By maybe suggesting that voters should look to some of the the smaller parties to punish the Larger two for the expenses scandal and corruption. This one can potentially backfire depending on how the Lib Dems put it across as they themselves are a big party though did not take as much flak from the Expenses and aren't in enough of a position to be corrupt. Backing the little guys may hurt the Tories in their safe seats enough for Labour, UKIP or maybe an independent to nick a seat. If anything it may put the Conservatives one short of that overall majority but it's better than nothing.
4) Start talking about the Alliance party - The Alliance party are essentially the Northern Irish Lib Dems who sadly do not even have a hope of getting one seat. But every vote that is cast for them weakens the nagging sectarian headcount Northern Ireland gets into around every election and potentially could uproot some of the incumbents from supposedly safe seats. If anything this is more a Long-term idea to make the Alliance look like a credible Party as the few seats they do get in the Northern Irish Assembly give the Lib Dems some friends at the devolved level.(Assembly elections next year after all)
5) Use Charles Kennedy - The man is a legend like John Prescott, yes he was in the Political scene by his admission of a Drinking problem but that makes him the seem more human to the common voter as opposed to the squeaky clean possible cyborg that is Cameron. Also Nick right now is relying on Vince Cable a bit to much in my view, Bringing Kennedy back up gives the Lib Dems a slightly more recognisable Front Line and shows that Brown isn;t the only one with a team behind him.
6) Europe - the Lib Dems need to use the Europe rounds when in the political gunfight of this election, mainly in seats where there is a strong Con/UKIP presence not so much as a campaign issue, It's more a way to cripple the Tories as Europe seems to make Tories bicker and UKIP could use the chance to talk about their favourite subject.
7) Find the right Balance - the Lib Dems have always been a party with good ideas but never got the coverage, now in election time when the cameras are actually pointing at them Clegg is bouncing around the country with very little policy talk, just meet and greets and photo ops, The Lib Dems did well in the Chancellors debate and they need to use the press time to blast the fact that they actually have some decent policies.
I;m aware some of these are pretty obvious but it's simply to provide what I think would be a good tactical plan for the election, the Lib Dems are a big enough party that it makes it dificult to plot a detailed tactical plan as they are almost everywhere
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