Vince Cable on way out?

This Business Secretary Vince Cable was recorded by undercover journalists from the Telegraph claiming that he had declared War on the NewsCorp Empire and that if he felt the coalition was moving to far away from his beliefs would use his 'Nuclear Option' and resign from Government and bring the coalition down around him.

By declaring unilateral war on Rupert Murdoch and (kinda)publicly revealing his Nuclear option, he has not only lost the powers he planned to use against Murdoch but also had his Nuclear option disarmed. The accusations have now begun from Labour that Cable has retained his Cabinet position simply to prop up the coalition and keep the Social Democratic wing of the Lib Dems happy.

But why is Vince still on the Cabinet?

Labour's idea that Cable has been retained to keep the Lib Dems happy isn't that far-fetched, He is after all one of the highest profile Lib Dems that their small parliamentary group has. Keeping him, though unpopular, keeps the Lib Dems from being overshadowed by the Tories.

However stripped of his powers to act in the BSkyB takeover has made Vince Cable a bit of a lame duck, his credibility, in using the powers afforded to his position as Business Secretary, is severely damaged. But perhaps Vince is simply being kept on the cabinet to keep the seat warm over the holidays as the Coalition hope to bring David Laws back onto the Coalition frontline.

David Laws is a Lib Dem who resigned from government due to issues with his expenses, however he has managed to avoid the expenses stigma due to the unceremonial reveal of his sexuality as collateral that accompanied his expense account. With a career as an investment banker backing his CV he would be a Prime Candidate to move onto the Business Portfolio.

For Vince Cable, he knows that being asked to leave the Cabinet would be his own fault, but how would he find being pushed to the backbenches with Lib Dems unhappy with the coalition's policies?

Tuition Fee Crisis - The Liberal Democrats Fallout...

Today (9/12/10) saw the vote in the House of Commons on the controversial Tuition fees rise for Universities in England and the day almost half the Liberal Democrats rebelled...

In the end 28 Lib Dem MPs voted for, 21 voted against, 6 abstained and 2 were at the climate summit in Mexico... On paper the result is simple 28 Lib Dems backed the Coalition, 27 went against it (albeit in different ways) and 2 will have the pleasure of being able to say they were not involved in. This rebellion also saw Lib Dem MPs Mike Crockart and Jenny Willott resign their unpaid Junior ministerial positions.

But what next? Other than a guarantee of more student action there is many possibilities yet few certainties as to what the fallout of this rebellion will be, but here are some ideas...

1) Seats at the Table - Although an unpaid position these Junior Position will become a scrap to be fought over after this rebellion, Will the rebels be replaced by Lib Dems again? if so we could see Clegg Loyalists being rewarded for sticking with the coalition, if not the newly promoted Conservative Junior ministers will serve as a symbolic smack to the Lib Dems, the message clear, Rock the boat and you will lose out...

2) The Old Guard - Both Former Lib Dem leaders Sir Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy voted against the plans and this could further upset the Clegg Leadership, with the Old leaders set firmly against him, he will be held up as a symbol for the 'Corruption' that has taken hold of the Lib Dem leadership, Which although bad for Clegg and his Loyalists could help mitigate losses in the 2011 Assembly/Local elections where Lib Dems will be able to position themselves as Anti-Clegg to help save themselves.

3) A Matter of Time - At this point I think it is only a matter of time before a defection or mass defection bites the Lib Dems. If there is a defection it will be interesting to see what road any would be deserters would take. Simply leaving the Government and sitting as an Independent Lib Dem could be an option, but it would most likely lead to the party revoking membership to save face. Jumping ship to Labour could be an option and would definitely raise the profile of any backbench Lib Dem. if there Defector wanted to avoid the Big three, jumping to the Greens might be a good idea and perhaps give them a PR boost that they could parley into more Devolved seats especially in Wales where they have none. The most extreme option would be to jump to a very small party, depending on where any defector is based this could be anyone from Mebyon Kernow if in Cornwall, to the Liberals, to any of the parties of the Left situated around the UK. Sitting as the only independent probably wont be an appealing prospect to any MP.

4) Backlash - With the Government majority of 83 shrunk to 21 expect the Conservatives to be quite annoyed at their Junior Partner's inability to keep their own house in order, especially with the current situation with the Governing Coalition of Ireland whose problems have been magnified as all of Europe scrutinises them. This could potentially see some Lib Dems gains of being in the coalition held back or denied entirely, as making the Lib Dems seem less relevant would help both Labour and the Tories destroy their 'King-maker' position

5) Firing Line - if you thought Labour's constant attack on the Lib Dems was too much, prepare to be snowed under as absolutely every other party in the House of Commons will be taking every opportunity to take a shot at the Lib Dems (as evidenced by the DUP's Nigel Dodds question during PMQs where he likened the Lib Dems to FIFA)
It is simply to close to Assembly election for any party with any sort of representation to resist being able to score the easy political points by publically humiliating the Lib Dems.

Only in the coming months where the Lib Dems prepare for the numerous elections around the UK will the exact Fallout of this rebellion be felt, Clegg may have had the support of 27 other MPs today but that may be all he's left with regardless of how the Lib Dems do next year as more and more turn away from his deal with Cameron.

Liberal Democrats, Bottom of the Food Chain?

Reported today by the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11255788) the Leader of the Green Party, Caroline Lucas MP, is making overtures to rebels within the Liberal Democrats. The Greens, who polled half the the votes the BNP got and only a quarter of that scored by UKIP, are in an interesting position when it comes to poaching possible defectors thanks to their single seat within the House of Commons, making them seem like a realistic haven for any rebels.

The Liberal Democrats themselves are a funny bunch, Drifting from the centre to the left of the political spectrum the 57 Lib Dems could potentially defect to a vast array of parties that would be happy to get some representation in the Commons or score points against the Tories junior partner.


The Green Party - Caroline Lucas' elevation to MP was considered one of the historic moments of the 2010 General Election, but with only one seat and failure to take control of Norwich City Council from Labour, it seems that the Green's momentum is starting to dissipate. Managing to snag a Lib Dem rebel would not only be a blow to the Coalition, but also provide Caroline Lucas with a PR bonanza as the Greens could legitimately market themselves as a true alternative to the Big Three and hopefully have some Lib Dems supporters follow their rebel MP.

The Liberal Party - Seen by the Lib Dems as a splinter group but in their eyes they are the remnant and true heirs to the Liberal Party of old. Should a Lib Dem defect to the Liberals, other than providing their first (or first in a long time) seat in the Commons, could be a huge problem as the Liberal can argue to embody what the Lib Dems gave up going into government with the Conservatives.

SNP/Plaid - Any Scottish or Welsh Lib Dems always have the option to catch the nationalist bug and the Celtic Bloc would love to be in a better position to criticise the cuts the Coalition will be sending to their respective Devolved bodies.

English Democrats/Mebyon Kernow - the Nationalists that aren't so fortunate when it comes to the polls would likely relish the chance to get some representation, even if it is just for one parliament. The advertisement it would be for their parties could help them build their support bases by making their parties seem like a credible option in the eyes of the voter who believes that a vote outside the Big Three is wasted.

Labour - Joining Labour is always the option for rebels seeking safety in numbers and with Labour standing to benefit from the Coalition Financial hatchet-men, it make sense to jump ship to those who are likely to reap the benefits come the next elections.


In the end it all really comes down to where any rebels fall in terms of policies and who they feel they can retain their seat with. I focused this post on the lib dems defecting because with the current situation the Lib dems seem the most disillusioned with their place in the political narrative and the idea of creating a big splash by defecting to a previously non-existant political power could put them high up in any small party's heirarchy.

Slow Death of The PUP

The UVF linked Progressive Unionist Party has over the last few months seen it's Heavyweights slowly drift away from the Party.

First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.

The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.

The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.

If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.

Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.

One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.

A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.


As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact

The Valley of Death for the Liberal Democrats

Today Nick Clegg announced in a speech that he believed that by the end of this Parliament we would have a "Liberal Britain", Problem is I doubt the Liberal Democrats will be apart of it.

During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.

From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?

I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.

Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.

There some more problems on the horizon though.

The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.

In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.

It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"

House of Lords Reform

One of the key areas of policy that the Lib-Con Coalition will be focusing on is electoral reform. Already we have seen plans for a referendum for the AV system to be used for election to the House of Commons. but what about the House of Lords.

Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;

Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.

Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.

Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.

I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.

The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.

Labour's counter-attack?

The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.

Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.

As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.

What next?

Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)

Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.

Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)

If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.

The Point?

Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.

English Democrats - General Election 2010

The English Democrats, the supposed English version of The SNP and Plaid Cymru, will they join their nationalist brethren this year in parliament?

1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.

2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.

3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.

4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.

5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.


The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.

The Liberal Democrats - General Election 2010

The Liberal Democrats, the UK's third Party, the other guys, the Under-underdogs....

Going into this election Nick Clegg (anyone ask who that is and I will have to hit you with a shovel) said he wanted to be Prime Minister, sadly for this ambitious LibDem he hasn't a hope, but just because Little Nicky won't achieve his dream doesn't mean it's all over for the LibDems.

As many of the pollsters are predicting we may have a Hung Parliament as the grand result of this General election, The Lib Dems must ensure this if they wish to move up in the world. With a Hung Parliament Little Nicky, whose been mocked time and time again for being the invisible man of the UK political scene, will be the King Maker and the keys to power will rest with the Liberal Democrats. If it seems like i'm stating the obvious, I am, got to cover as much as I can, makes me seem more clever.

To achieve the hung parliament here is what I think the Lib Dems need to do.

1) Defend the Southwest from the Tory advance - an obvious one to start off with but if the Lib Dems lose the south west it may knock them down to the same level as the Celtic Bloc and Northern Irish parties and make them completely irrelevant for 4-5 years.

2) Attack the SNP - the SNP have set themselves a hefty target of 20 seats (at least Alex Salmond has) and are planning on bleeding Labour to get them, the Lib Dems need to go to all out war with the SNP, as since the SNP have most of the seats in the Celtic Bloc taking them out will eliminate the nationalist threat meaning the next contender for the King Maker Position would be the DUP of Northern Ireland. By breaking the SNP the Lib Dems stay as first in line to be King Maker. (Provided of course Lab/Con lack 15+ seats of and overall majority)

3) Back the other little guys - Within Tory Territory (South-east and Middle England) there lies a small army of smaller parties in constituencies where the Lib Dems sadly have very little hope. By maybe suggesting that voters should look to some of the the smaller parties to punish the Larger two for the expenses scandal and corruption. This one can potentially backfire depending on how the Lib Dems put it across as they themselves are a big party though did not take as much flak from the Expenses and aren't in enough of a position to be corrupt. Backing the little guys may hurt the Tories in their safe seats enough for Labour, UKIP or maybe an independent to nick a seat. If anything it may put the Conservatives one short of that overall majority but it's better than nothing.

4) Start talking about the Alliance party - The Alliance party are essentially the Northern Irish Lib Dems who sadly do not even have a hope of getting one seat. But every vote that is cast for them weakens the nagging sectarian headcount Northern Ireland gets into around every election and potentially could uproot some of the incumbents from supposedly safe seats. If anything this is more a Long-term idea to make the Alliance look like a credible Party as the few seats they do get in the Northern Irish Assembly give the Lib Dems some friends at the devolved level.(Assembly elections next year after all)

5) Use Charles Kennedy - The man is a legend like John Prescott, yes he was in the Political scene by his admission of a Drinking problem but that makes him the seem more human to the common voter as opposed to the squeaky clean possible cyborg that is Cameron. Also Nick right now is relying on Vince Cable a bit to much in my view, Bringing Kennedy back up gives the Lib Dems a slightly more recognisable Front Line and shows that Brown isn;t the only one with a team behind him.

6) Europe - the Lib Dems need to use the Europe rounds when in the political gunfight of this election, mainly in seats where there is a strong Con/UKIP presence not so much as a campaign issue, It's more a way to cripple the Tories as Europe seems to make Tories bicker and UKIP could use the chance to talk about their favourite subject.

7) Find the right Balance - the Lib Dems have always been a party with good ideas but never got the coverage, now in election time when the cameras are actually pointing at them Clegg is bouncing around the country with very little policy talk, just meet and greets and photo ops, The Lib Dems did well in the Chancellors debate and they need to use the press time to blast the fact that they actually have some decent policies.


I;m aware some of these are pretty obvious but it's simply to provide what I think would be a good tactical plan for the election, the Lib Dems are a big enough party that it makes it dificult to plot a detailed tactical plan as they are almost everywhere