With the Current overhaul of the Irish political landscape which may see Fine Gael form a Single Party Government for the first time and the Celtic Fringe Devolved Elections tkaing place in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, Could the next Stormont Assembly be one of Voluntary Coalition?
This Question has cropped up for numerous reasons, The Tories want to see normalisations of Coalition Politics in NI, (they're really getting into the Coalition thing) The Drastic changes predicted for the Republic of Ireland's Government, (including 100% more Baron Gerry Adams) the Possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister and the Potential for TUV MLA to be elected in May.
So the question I pose is, what would this new Northern Irish Coalition look like?
To give an idea of seat numbers i'll use the current numbers (as of February 16th 2011) with a few tweaks, that means our hypothetical Assembly looks something like this;
DUP - 35
Sinn Fein - 27
UUP - 16
SDLP - 16
Alliance - 7
Green - 1
*Fianna Fail - 1
**TUV - 3
Other - 1
***Presiding officer - 1
*Fianna fail currently have a member sitting in the Assembly though he hasn't takent he designation
**The TUV were assigned the 3 current independent Unionist seats
***The Presiding officer is formerly DUP
In the 108 seat Assembly, 54 seats are required for a majority of one (Gov.=54 Opp.=53 P.O.=1)
DUP Led Coalitions?
In our scenario the DUP have remained the Biggest Party in the Assembly (poor Sinn Fein) so they get first crack at forming a Coalition. With their 35 seats they only need the support of 19 more to form a government.
1) DUP + Sinn Fein (62 seat government, majority of 9) - The Grand Coalition. Possibly one of the least likely to ever happen Voluntarily. However it offers the most seats with the fewest number of parties involved. Should this Coalition ever be formed not only would the DUP/Sinn Fein Coalition command quite a strong majority in the Assembly but would also check Cross-Community protocols being made up of the Two largest parties of the Unionist and nationalist Communities. Likely that the DUP would favour the more business and financial orientated Ministries with Sinn Fein focused on the more social, this would allow Sinn Fein to promote it's Irish programs in NI while the DUP handle financial infrastructure. Unlikely to happen as both Parties hate the other with equally.
2) DUP + UUP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of 1) - The Unionist Unity Coalition. An Unlikely option for many reasons. First the TUV would hold to much sway for it's size it's 3 seats being the final piece needed for a majority. Second the Pan-Unionist Government would have problems getting cross-community support unless an arrangement could be made with the SDLP. Thirdly, likely to push up Sinn Fein votes as they will be percieved as the best option to break the Pan-Unionist Government. Finally, majority of one will mean every vote will be needed most of the time and one rebel could defeat Government.
3) DUP + UUP + SDLP (67 seat Government, Majority of 14) - The Workable Coalition. A potential option for a Coalition. The SDLP and UUP have a history working together and are the likely parties to voluntarily leave the Current Executive to form an Opposition. If the UUP/SDLP (Classic) Bloc chose to support the DUP, they would provide a large majority and Cross Community support. Likely to cause a lot of anger from Sinn Fein ranks from what is essentially the Current Executive minus them. SDLP would likely be happy to take the Education brief to try and fix the problems that Sinn Fein couldn't and would also be given the Deputy First Minister to ensure the Coalition appeals to both communities.
4) DUP + Alliance + SDLP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The Bridge Coalition. Choosing the Alliance Party over the UUP would mean that the Bridge Coalition would be made up of a 'Unionist', a 'Nationalist' and an 'Other'. Though a smaller majority than the Workable Coalition, it would allow the UUP a chance to form their new identity and mean the Bridge Coaliton would not be seen as Unionist Dominated. Sinn Fein could not complain that they were purposefully being excluded as so to would the UUP. The TUV would be supportive of the Lack of a Sinn Fein presence in Government. SDLP again takes Deputy First Minster with Alliance remaining at Justice.
5) DUP + Alliance + UUP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The 'ConDem' Coalition. Made up of the Lib Dem sister and the Tory something parties, this coalition would numerically be as strong as the Bridge coalition, though lacking the cross community appeal. Could be seen as the only way the DUP and UUP could form a Unionist coalition without the more hardline TUV.
6) DUP + SDLP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of one) - The Hardline Lite Coalition. An unlikely coalition due to the Hardline Unionism of the TUV and the Nationalism of the SDLP, but would have cross community support. Would also give the UUP time to decide it's future direction.
A seventh option exists in the all but Sinn Fein option in which everyone but Sinn Fein is invited to help form the Government though this will likely backfire and result in Sinn Fein gains.
Sinn Fein First Minister?
Should the DUP find no love with any of the other Parties, perhaps then it will be the opportunity for Sinn Fein to lead the Government of the North.
1) Sinn Fein + SDLP + UUP (59 Seat Government, Majority of 6) - The Anti-DUP coalition. Perhaps the only credible coalition that Sinn fein could actually lead which would have a majority. A deal with the Classic Bloc would give Sinn Fein power but leave them facing the DUP and TUV across the aisle.
Any other Sinn Fein lead Coalition would require both the UUP and SDLP plus anyone else they could get on board.
The reality of the current Seat numbers is that the DUP are the only party to have the numbers to give them a wide range of options in forming a coalition thanks to the 8 seat difference between them and Sinn Fein. As May approaches and talks about DUP/UUP deals in North and West Belfast continue it is likely that by the end of this election cycle the DUP will remain the Strongest party in the Assembly.
I will note however that these coalitions were based on the idea of very little change come May (with the TUV being the exception) and therefore may be pointless. Regardless, What Coalitions could you see forming in Northern Ireland? How much impact will the TUV make? and any other thoughts you have? please comment.
Showing posts with label Coalition. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coalition. Show all posts
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
Vince Cable on way out?
This Business Secretary Vince Cable was recorded by undercover journalists from the Telegraph claiming that he had declared War on the NewsCorp Empire and that if he felt the coalition was moving to far away from his beliefs would use his 'Nuclear Option' and resign from Government and bring the coalition down around him.
By declaring unilateral war on Rupert Murdoch and (kinda)publicly revealing his Nuclear option, he has not only lost the powers he planned to use against Murdoch but also had his Nuclear option disarmed. The accusations have now begun from Labour that Cable has retained his Cabinet position simply to prop up the coalition and keep the Social Democratic wing of the Lib Dems happy.
But why is Vince still on the Cabinet?
Labour's idea that Cable has been retained to keep the Lib Dems happy isn't that far-fetched, He is after all one of the highest profile Lib Dems that their small parliamentary group has. Keeping him, though unpopular, keeps the Lib Dems from being overshadowed by the Tories.
However stripped of his powers to act in the BSkyB takeover has made Vince Cable a bit of a lame duck, his credibility, in using the powers afforded to his position as Business Secretary, is severely damaged. But perhaps Vince is simply being kept on the cabinet to keep the seat warm over the holidays as the Coalition hope to bring David Laws back onto the Coalition frontline.
David Laws is a Lib Dem who resigned from government due to issues with his expenses, however he has managed to avoid the expenses stigma due to the unceremonial reveal of his sexuality as collateral that accompanied his expense account. With a career as an investment banker backing his CV he would be a Prime Candidate to move onto the Business Portfolio.
For Vince Cable, he knows that being asked to leave the Cabinet would be his own fault, but how would he find being pushed to the backbenches with Lib Dems unhappy with the coalition's policies?
By declaring unilateral war on Rupert Murdoch and (kinda)publicly revealing his Nuclear option, he has not only lost the powers he planned to use against Murdoch but also had his Nuclear option disarmed. The accusations have now begun from Labour that Cable has retained his Cabinet position simply to prop up the coalition and keep the Social Democratic wing of the Lib Dems happy.
But why is Vince still on the Cabinet?
Labour's idea that Cable has been retained to keep the Lib Dems happy isn't that far-fetched, He is after all one of the highest profile Lib Dems that their small parliamentary group has. Keeping him, though unpopular, keeps the Lib Dems from being overshadowed by the Tories.
However stripped of his powers to act in the BSkyB takeover has made Vince Cable a bit of a lame duck, his credibility, in using the powers afforded to his position as Business Secretary, is severely damaged. But perhaps Vince is simply being kept on the cabinet to keep the seat warm over the holidays as the Coalition hope to bring David Laws back onto the Coalition frontline.
David Laws is a Lib Dem who resigned from government due to issues with his expenses, however he has managed to avoid the expenses stigma due to the unceremonial reveal of his sexuality as collateral that accompanied his expense account. With a career as an investment banker backing his CV he would be a Prime Candidate to move onto the Business Portfolio.
For Vince Cable, he knows that being asked to leave the Cabinet would be his own fault, but how would he find being pushed to the backbenches with Lib Dems unhappy with the coalition's policies?
Saturday, 11 December 2010
ConDem 2011?
With the Conservative/Liberal Democrat surviving a rebellion by either side it is safe to assume that until 2015 the Westminster Coalition will survive, the question is, could the ConDem's take the Westminster show on the road to Cardiff and Edinburgh?
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
Thursday, 9 December 2010
Tuition Fee Crisis - The Liberal Democrats Fallout...
Today (9/12/10) saw the vote in the House of Commons on the controversial Tuition fees rise for Universities in England and the day almost half the Liberal Democrats rebelled...
In the end 28 Lib Dem MPs voted for, 21 voted against, 6 abstained and 2 were at the climate summit in Mexico... On paper the result is simple 28 Lib Dems backed the Coalition, 27 went against it (albeit in different ways) and 2 will have the pleasure of being able to say they were not involved in. This rebellion also saw Lib Dem MPs Mike Crockart and Jenny Willott resign their unpaid Junior ministerial positions.
But what next? Other than a guarantee of more student action there is many possibilities yet few certainties as to what the fallout of this rebellion will be, but here are some ideas...
1) Seats at the Table - Although an unpaid position these Junior Position will become a scrap to be fought over after this rebellion, Will the rebels be replaced by Lib Dems again? if so we could see Clegg Loyalists being rewarded for sticking with the coalition, if not the newly promoted Conservative Junior ministers will serve as a symbolic smack to the Lib Dems, the message clear, Rock the boat and you will lose out...
2) The Old Guard - Both Former Lib Dem leaders Sir Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy voted against the plans and this could further upset the Clegg Leadership, with the Old leaders set firmly against him, he will be held up as a symbol for the 'Corruption' that has taken hold of the Lib Dem leadership, Which although bad for Clegg and his Loyalists could help mitigate losses in the 2011 Assembly/Local elections where Lib Dems will be able to position themselves as Anti-Clegg to help save themselves.
3) A Matter of Time - At this point I think it is only a matter of time before a defection or mass defection bites the Lib Dems. If there is a defection it will be interesting to see what road any would be deserters would take. Simply leaving the Government and sitting as an Independent Lib Dem could be an option, but it would most likely lead to the party revoking membership to save face. Jumping ship to Labour could be an option and would definitely raise the profile of any backbench Lib Dem. if there Defector wanted to avoid the Big three, jumping to the Greens might be a good idea and perhaps give them a PR boost that they could parley into more Devolved seats especially in Wales where they have none. The most extreme option would be to jump to a very small party, depending on where any defector is based this could be anyone from Mebyon Kernow if in Cornwall, to the Liberals, to any of the parties of the Left situated around the UK. Sitting as the only independent probably wont be an appealing prospect to any MP.
4) Backlash - With the Government majority of 83 shrunk to 21 expect the Conservatives to be quite annoyed at their Junior Partner's inability to keep their own house in order, especially with the current situation with the Governing Coalition of Ireland whose problems have been magnified as all of Europe scrutinises them. This could potentially see some Lib Dems gains of being in the coalition held back or denied entirely, as making the Lib Dems seem less relevant would help both Labour and the Tories destroy their 'King-maker' position
5) Firing Line - if you thought Labour's constant attack on the Lib Dems was too much, prepare to be snowed under as absolutely every other party in the House of Commons will be taking every opportunity to take a shot at the Lib Dems (as evidenced by the DUP's Nigel Dodds question during PMQs where he likened the Lib Dems to FIFA)
It is simply to close to Assembly election for any party with any sort of representation to resist being able to score the easy political points by publically humiliating the Lib Dems.
Only in the coming months where the Lib Dems prepare for the numerous elections around the UK will the exact Fallout of this rebellion be felt, Clegg may have had the support of 27 other MPs today but that may be all he's left with regardless of how the Lib Dems do next year as more and more turn away from his deal with Cameron.
In the end 28 Lib Dem MPs voted for, 21 voted against, 6 abstained and 2 were at the climate summit in Mexico... On paper the result is simple 28 Lib Dems backed the Coalition, 27 went against it (albeit in different ways) and 2 will have the pleasure of being able to say they were not involved in. This rebellion also saw Lib Dem MPs Mike Crockart and Jenny Willott resign their unpaid Junior ministerial positions.
But what next? Other than a guarantee of more student action there is many possibilities yet few certainties as to what the fallout of this rebellion will be, but here are some ideas...
1) Seats at the Table - Although an unpaid position these Junior Position will become a scrap to be fought over after this rebellion, Will the rebels be replaced by Lib Dems again? if so we could see Clegg Loyalists being rewarded for sticking with the coalition, if not the newly promoted Conservative Junior ministers will serve as a symbolic smack to the Lib Dems, the message clear, Rock the boat and you will lose out...
2) The Old Guard - Both Former Lib Dem leaders Sir Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy voted against the plans and this could further upset the Clegg Leadership, with the Old leaders set firmly against him, he will be held up as a symbol for the 'Corruption' that has taken hold of the Lib Dem leadership, Which although bad for Clegg and his Loyalists could help mitigate losses in the 2011 Assembly/Local elections where Lib Dems will be able to position themselves as Anti-Clegg to help save themselves.
3) A Matter of Time - At this point I think it is only a matter of time before a defection or mass defection bites the Lib Dems. If there is a defection it will be interesting to see what road any would be deserters would take. Simply leaving the Government and sitting as an Independent Lib Dem could be an option, but it would most likely lead to the party revoking membership to save face. Jumping ship to Labour could be an option and would definitely raise the profile of any backbench Lib Dem. if there Defector wanted to avoid the Big three, jumping to the Greens might be a good idea and perhaps give them a PR boost that they could parley into more Devolved seats especially in Wales where they have none. The most extreme option would be to jump to a very small party, depending on where any defector is based this could be anyone from Mebyon Kernow if in Cornwall, to the Liberals, to any of the parties of the Left situated around the UK. Sitting as the only independent probably wont be an appealing prospect to any MP.
4) Backlash - With the Government majority of 83 shrunk to 21 expect the Conservatives to be quite annoyed at their Junior Partner's inability to keep their own house in order, especially with the current situation with the Governing Coalition of Ireland whose problems have been magnified as all of Europe scrutinises them. This could potentially see some Lib Dems gains of being in the coalition held back or denied entirely, as making the Lib Dems seem less relevant would help both Labour and the Tories destroy their 'King-maker' position
5) Firing Line - if you thought Labour's constant attack on the Lib Dems was too much, prepare to be snowed under as absolutely every other party in the House of Commons will be taking every opportunity to take a shot at the Lib Dems (as evidenced by the DUP's Nigel Dodds question during PMQs where he likened the Lib Dems to FIFA)
It is simply to close to Assembly election for any party with any sort of representation to resist being able to score the easy political points by publically humiliating the Lib Dems.
Only in the coming months where the Lib Dems prepare for the numerous elections around the UK will the exact Fallout of this rebellion be felt, Clegg may have had the support of 27 other MPs today but that may be all he's left with regardless of how the Lib Dems do next year as more and more turn away from his deal with Cameron.
Friday, 10 September 2010
Liberal Democrats, Bottom of the Food Chain?
Reported today by the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11255788) the Leader of the Green Party, Caroline Lucas MP, is making overtures to rebels within the Liberal Democrats. The Greens, who polled half the the votes the BNP got and only a quarter of that scored by UKIP, are in an interesting position when it comes to poaching possible defectors thanks to their single seat within the House of Commons, making them seem like a realistic haven for any rebels.
The Liberal Democrats themselves are a funny bunch, Drifting from the centre to the left of the political spectrum the 57 Lib Dems could potentially defect to a vast array of parties that would be happy to get some representation in the Commons or score points against the Tories junior partner.
The Green Party - Caroline Lucas' elevation to MP was considered one of the historic moments of the 2010 General Election, but with only one seat and failure to take control of Norwich City Council from Labour, it seems that the Green's momentum is starting to dissipate. Managing to snag a Lib Dem rebel would not only be a blow to the Coalition, but also provide Caroline Lucas with a PR bonanza as the Greens could legitimately market themselves as a true alternative to the Big Three and hopefully have some Lib Dems supporters follow their rebel MP.
The Liberal Party - Seen by the Lib Dems as a splinter group but in their eyes they are the remnant and true heirs to the Liberal Party of old. Should a Lib Dem defect to the Liberals, other than providing their first (or first in a long time) seat in the Commons, could be a huge problem as the Liberal can argue to embody what the Lib Dems gave up going into government with the Conservatives.
SNP/Plaid - Any Scottish or Welsh Lib Dems always have the option to catch the nationalist bug and the Celtic Bloc would love to be in a better position to criticise the cuts the Coalition will be sending to their respective Devolved bodies.
English Democrats/Mebyon Kernow - the Nationalists that aren't so fortunate when it comes to the polls would likely relish the chance to get some representation, even if it is just for one parliament. The advertisement it would be for their parties could help them build their support bases by making their parties seem like a credible option in the eyes of the voter who believes that a vote outside the Big Three is wasted.
Labour - Joining Labour is always the option for rebels seeking safety in numbers and with Labour standing to benefit from the Coalition Financial hatchet-men, it make sense to jump ship to those who are likely to reap the benefits come the next elections.
In the end it all really comes down to where any rebels fall in terms of policies and who they feel they can retain their seat with. I focused this post on the lib dems defecting because with the current situation the Lib dems seem the most disillusioned with their place in the political narrative and the idea of creating a big splash by defecting to a previously non-existant political power could put them high up in any small party's heirarchy.
The Liberal Democrats themselves are a funny bunch, Drifting from the centre to the left of the political spectrum the 57 Lib Dems could potentially defect to a vast array of parties that would be happy to get some representation in the Commons or score points against the Tories junior partner.
The Green Party - Caroline Lucas' elevation to MP was considered one of the historic moments of the 2010 General Election, but with only one seat and failure to take control of Norwich City Council from Labour, it seems that the Green's momentum is starting to dissipate. Managing to snag a Lib Dem rebel would not only be a blow to the Coalition, but also provide Caroline Lucas with a PR bonanza as the Greens could legitimately market themselves as a true alternative to the Big Three and hopefully have some Lib Dems supporters follow their rebel MP.
The Liberal Party - Seen by the Lib Dems as a splinter group but in their eyes they are the remnant and true heirs to the Liberal Party of old. Should a Lib Dem defect to the Liberals, other than providing their first (or first in a long time) seat in the Commons, could be a huge problem as the Liberal can argue to embody what the Lib Dems gave up going into government with the Conservatives.
SNP/Plaid - Any Scottish or Welsh Lib Dems always have the option to catch the nationalist bug and the Celtic Bloc would love to be in a better position to criticise the cuts the Coalition will be sending to their respective Devolved bodies.
English Democrats/Mebyon Kernow - the Nationalists that aren't so fortunate when it comes to the polls would likely relish the chance to get some representation, even if it is just for one parliament. The advertisement it would be for their parties could help them build their support bases by making their parties seem like a credible option in the eyes of the voter who believes that a vote outside the Big Three is wasted.
Labour - Joining Labour is always the option for rebels seeking safety in numbers and with Labour standing to benefit from the Coalition Financial hatchet-men, it make sense to jump ship to those who are likely to reap the benefits come the next elections.
In the end it all really comes down to where any rebels fall in terms of policies and who they feel they can retain their seat with. I focused this post on the lib dems defecting because with the current situation the Lib dems seem the most disillusioned with their place in the political narrative and the idea of creating a big splash by defecting to a previously non-existant political power could put them high up in any small party's heirarchy.
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Possible UK Coalition Deals
In honour of the first 100 days of the Tory/Libdem Coalition the BBC decided to fun a feature on what if they hadn't got together (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11009623)
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Sunday, 16 May 2010
House of Lords Reform
One of the key areas of policy that the Lib-Con Coalition will be focusing on is electoral reform. Already we have seen plans for a referendum for the AV system to be used for election to the House of Commons. but what about the House of Lords.
Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;
Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.
Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.
Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.
I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.
The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.
Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;
Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.
Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.
Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.
I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.
The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Labour's counter-attack?
The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.
As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.
What next?
Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)
Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.
Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)
If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.
The Point?
Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.
Monday, 10 May 2010
Gordon Brown Resigns.....
During the election the media coverage was obsessed to see which major playes in the parties would get "Scalped"
The Morning after the election the biggest Scalp taken in the Westminster Campaign was that of Peter Robinson of the DUP, This Monday the 10th of majority the biggest scalp out there was taken, Gordon Brown PM.
Gordon Brown, "affectionately" called the Gordonator, the Terminator of British Politics. He was the slow moving, seemingly bulletproof Behemoth who once he had his mind set wouldn't care if a nuclear weapon was dropped on his head, he would continue on. He's been taken down by King Clegg, King-maker in Westminster.
Now as the Gordonator begins his slow march to the back benches, ready to be moth-balled and bowed up we have to ask will this bring the Progressive Alliance to power?
The Morning after the election the biggest Scalp taken in the Westminster Campaign was that of Peter Robinson of the DUP, This Monday the 10th of majority the biggest scalp out there was taken, Gordon Brown PM.
Gordon Brown, "affectionately" called the Gordonator, the Terminator of British Politics. He was the slow moving, seemingly bulletproof Behemoth who once he had his mind set wouldn't care if a nuclear weapon was dropped on his head, he would continue on. He's been taken down by King Clegg, King-maker in Westminster.
Now as the Gordonator begins his slow march to the back benches, ready to be moth-balled and bowed up we have to ask will this bring the Progressive Alliance to power?
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