The Election across the UK have now finished, AV has been beaten into the ground, Scotland has it's first majority Government and one party faced what could only be described as all-out destruction.. so now that the dust is settling how did all the multitude of parties do and what of their Leaders?
Conservatives
The Senior Partner of the ConDem Coalition had a somewhat unusual electoral period. Their peculiar results were an odd mix of bad and good across the Isle of Great Britain (their NI council results aren't known yet)
England - Across the English Councils the Tory Party found itself with a net gain of 81 new councillors, this crop of new councillors brought gifts however, in the shape of overall control of 4 councils. An unusual result as the Tories are a party in Government and were expecting a bloody nose. The results would suggest that the Liberal Democrats were the political equivalent of a yellow Flak jacket for the party of Blue.
Scotland - The Westminster party lost a quarter of it's Holyrood seats during the SNP charge. Some pundits are already questioning the future of the Scottish Tories as a credible fore in Scotland, but the Prime Minister will be gearing up to clash with Salmond and will need his small band of Scot-Tories to help chip away at the SNP.
Wales - Net gains of 2 in the Welsh Assembly have allowed the Conservatives to ascend to Second place with the Welsh Assembly. Unfortunately the loss of their Leader due to their own success was a bit of a blow and the rise of Welsh Labour has taken any chance of a Rainbow Coalition.
David Cameron - The Prime Minister may have been able to walk away with a score of 3 (AV, England, Wales) out of a possible 4 win he could take back to Tory HQ, but faced with a parliamentary secure Alex Salmond and a likely despondent Liberal Democrat Party he will face some further hurdles in the year ahead.
Labour
Labour's results were as mixed as the Tories, not least because of their divided stance on the issue of AV.
England - 800 new councillors bolstered Labour's ranks and 26 councils came with them, so a good haul for the party of opposition. The Labour Party made light work of the Liberal Democrats showing the Junior Coalition partner what a big party could do.
Scotland - A disappointing Scottish election for the Labour party in what should be a heartland. The rise of Salmond to overall control of Scotland has forced Iain Grey to resign and the party found themselves down 7 seats at the end of the night. A charismatic leader will be needed to engage with Salmond, and they'd better find one quick.
Wales - Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Labour Party took half the seats in the Welsh Assembly a definite win for them but will it be enough to keep control of Wales. Initial reports suggest they are going to try and enter some sort of agreement with another party, whether that will be another Coalition remains to be seen.
Ed Miliband - 'Red Ed' can not really claim the election as a win for himself at the end of the Day, he backed AV, which failed, He made the Scottish Election about Westminster, which backfired, In England he ripped apart a weak Liberal Democrat Party and in Wales most of the leadership was done by First Minister Jones..so while mixed for the Labour Party 'Red Ed' may still be in trouble.
Liberal Democrats
Bloody, Broken, Beaten, Destroyed, Hammered, Demolished or Annihilated.. the list of ways to describe the Liberal Democrat performance is longer than this and any blog post in history could handle.
England - Almost 700 councillors and 9 councils were lost, the Liberal Democrats, torn apart by an electorate who quickly withdrew to the Labour and Conservative camps, have been decimated in England. It could take many years for the Lib Dems to recover their seats, though the Green now seems to be the new yellow.
Scotland - A double hitter as the Scot-Libdems lose 12 seats and their Leader Tavish Scott hands in his resignation, blaming the Coalition for the losses as he goes.
Wales - For three election the Liberal Democrats maintained 6 seats, now they only have 5, a glimmer of hope remains that labour will choose them as a Welsh Coalition partner which may redeem them in the Welsh Electorate's eyes.
Nick Clegg - 'King-Maker Clegg' may have to make a choice, stay in coalition but give up leadership or head to opposition and hope for the best. Disappointing.
Scottish National Party (SNP)
The SNP are perhaps on e of the biggest winner in this election. Gaining overall control of Scotland was no easy feat but somehow Alex Salmond managed it. The SNP will now have to be careful, there is no easy excuse like that available to them as a minority government and they will have to be smart in dealing with Prime Minister Cameron, but a very weaken and in 2/3 of cases leaderless opposition will make the SNP start of term a bit easier.
Alex Salmond - The First Minster now has overall control of Scotland, but his determination for Independence may cause him problems, especially with David Cameron as his main opponent who has not only been unscathed by the election but perhaps even in a stronger position despite the loss of a few Scottish seats.
Plaid Cymru
The Welsh Nationalists have lost their number 2 place to the Tories after losing four seats and in the elections that saw Scottish Nationalism rise the Welsh Nationalist will have to consider their future, and elect a new Deputy Leader.
Ieuan Wyn Jones - The Plaid Cymru Leader may be at the end of his reign, he brought his party into government as a Junior Coalition partner and like the Lib Dems he paid a price for it.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)
The DUP are one of the big winners in these election, they may have only gained two seats but their party and leader have recovered from a somewhat disappointing performance last year.
Peter Robinson - Alex Salmond isn't the only Leader to be elevated by the election, First Minster Robinson has been received as the new Champion of Unionism for his positive and well fought campaign and considering what his position was like last year it is a startling turn around.
Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein only managed a gain of one seat and have considered this somewhat disappointing as they could have achieved more but for some mistake in their vote management strategy.
Martin McGuinness - Mr McGuinness will continue his role as Deputy First Minister but may face an annoyance from the newly elected Jim Allister
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)
The UUP found themselves down two seats and their leader followed that up by calling some people with flags 'scum'
Tom Elliot -Mr Elliot saw orange after the election and attacked Sinn Fein supporters, his position as leader will most likely depends on whether or not he take the UUP into opposition.
Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP)
The SDLP found themselves Down two seats as well like the UUP and find themselves pondering leaving the executive
Margaret Ritchie - The newly crowned SDLP leader may be already in trouble of having to consider her position.
Alliance
The Alliance Party made a gain and may get an executive seat, but trouble lies ahead in regards to the justice ministry and a rather annoyed UUP.
David Ford- Mr. Ford will have to take care when handling the exectuive seat hand-out but otherwise is doing well.
Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)
The party that some said may split open Unionism only managed to scrape one seat and essentially replaced the PUP as the minority Unionist Party. Their future will be in serious doubt.
Jim Allister - Unable to actually achieve the quota, Mr Allister will have a rough entrance into the Assembly, his only hope is that the UUP go into opposition and want his help to attack the DUP/Sinn Fein
Green
The green maintained in Northern Ireland and gained a seat in Scotland along with a batch of new councillors they had a very successful election though they have yet to break into the Welsh scene in a meaningful way.
They have several leaders who will all take a little something from this election.
United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
Failings in strategy led to no gains across the board for UKIP.
Nigel Farage - Nigel can only hope to build on the votes he got and take them forward to the next Euro Election.
British National Party (BNP)
One of the losers of the Election, the BNP lost a large number of councillors and made no gain in the Celtic fringe.
Nick Griffin - The BNP was in trouble before the election and seems to be circling the drain.
Conclusion - Alex Salmond and Peter Robinson are the big winners, Red Ed and King-maker Clegg are going to have to step up if they want to stay in the game.
Showing posts with label TUV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TUV. Show all posts
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
UKIP, The New Third Party?
Recently at the UKIP Conference, newly re-elected leader Nigel Farage stated that after coming second in the Barnsley Central By-election, that UKIP's goal was to claim third place from the Liberal Democrats.
While the goal is ambitious I fear it may be over-reaching for UKIP for a number of reasons;
1) While UKIP achieved fourth in number of votes cast at the 2010 General Election, they trail the Liberal Democrats by 6 million (They can't all be students) which would take a huge effort to replicate in 2015 for UKIP
2) In terms of Commons seats UKIP ranks 13th on the League table (table includes speaker) having no seats but having the highest number of votes for a party with none. To take third from the Liberal Democrats would require a gain of 58 seats for UKIP (assuming Libdems didn't lose any)
3) UKIP holds no seats in the Devolved Celtic Fringe. The Liberal Democrats have 16 in Scotland, 5 in Wales and if you include their Sister party, Alliance, 7 in Northern Ireland.
4) UKIP holds supposedly 23 seats in councils across the UK the liberal Democrats currently sit on 4011
Realistically UKIP should attempt to become the Legitimate fourth party of the UK and try to break the Lib Dems place as sole Kingmaker in Parliament. To do this here is what I suggest;
1) UKIP should target seats in the Celtic Fringe, They did manage to achieve one of the four Welsh European seats in 2009 and in 2007 they came 6th in terms of party results (7th overall if including Trish Law) so perhaps Wales would be the place to get some Celtic Seats.
A potentially interesting side note is that due to the electoral system of Wales, Labour may end of one or two seats short of overall majority, perhaps presenting a new option besides the LibDems or Plaid Cymru for Labour to enter Coalition with.
In Northern Ireland, UKIP though running their own Candidates could perhaps strike some sort of deal with the TUV who they have a good relationship with (Offers opportunity to develop a Unionist link-up that if succeeds provides ammo to use against the Conservatives following the disaster of UCU-NF)
2) A Huge effort should go into the Council election that are also happening at the same time as the Celtic elections (English and Northern Irish Council election) a term that was used during the Irish General election was 'Gene-Pool'. The UKIP genetic soup is somewhat limited to a small crop of 12 MEPs and cache of councillors. As a target for councillors in May I would suggest 120, or to put it another way, larger than the DUP. They are the current 4th place holders with 8 Westminster Seats and have 4 Lords as opposed to UKIP's 2.
3) Should AV pass UKIP should attempt to develop some kind of transfer arrangement with smaller parties to try and break the big three deadlock (TUV in Northern Ireland would be prime candidate off the bat)
4) Aim for between 15-20 MEPs in the 2014 European elections. Euro elections are UKIP's bread and butter and they need to try and achieve a more solid second place (they tied with Labour last time around) Not only would it be a huge achievement for UKIP but would also increase their Gene-pool (God I love using that term) for the General election in 2015 as any MEPs hoping to hop houses would have had a lot of publicity within a year of going to the polls again.
Should everything go well UKIP could see themselves in a prime position to enter the House of Commons, but in the time between now and then a millions things could happen.
Any thoughts? leave a comment
While the goal is ambitious I fear it may be over-reaching for UKIP for a number of reasons;
1) While UKIP achieved fourth in number of votes cast at the 2010 General Election, they trail the Liberal Democrats by 6 million (They can't all be students) which would take a huge effort to replicate in 2015 for UKIP
2) In terms of Commons seats UKIP ranks 13th on the League table (table includes speaker) having no seats but having the highest number of votes for a party with none. To take third from the Liberal Democrats would require a gain of 58 seats for UKIP (assuming Libdems didn't lose any)
3) UKIP holds no seats in the Devolved Celtic Fringe. The Liberal Democrats have 16 in Scotland, 5 in Wales and if you include their Sister party, Alliance, 7 in Northern Ireland.
4) UKIP holds supposedly 23 seats in councils across the UK the liberal Democrats currently sit on 4011
Realistically UKIP should attempt to become the Legitimate fourth party of the UK and try to break the Lib Dems place as sole Kingmaker in Parliament. To do this here is what I suggest;
1) UKIP should target seats in the Celtic Fringe, They did manage to achieve one of the four Welsh European seats in 2009 and in 2007 they came 6th in terms of party results (7th overall if including Trish Law) so perhaps Wales would be the place to get some Celtic Seats.
A potentially interesting side note is that due to the electoral system of Wales, Labour may end of one or two seats short of overall majority, perhaps presenting a new option besides the LibDems or Plaid Cymru for Labour to enter Coalition with.
In Northern Ireland, UKIP though running their own Candidates could perhaps strike some sort of deal with the TUV who they have a good relationship with (Offers opportunity to develop a Unionist link-up that if succeeds provides ammo to use against the Conservatives following the disaster of UCU-NF)
2) A Huge effort should go into the Council election that are also happening at the same time as the Celtic elections (English and Northern Irish Council election) a term that was used during the Irish General election was 'Gene-Pool'. The UKIP genetic soup is somewhat limited to a small crop of 12 MEPs and cache of councillors. As a target for councillors in May I would suggest 120, or to put it another way, larger than the DUP. They are the current 4th place holders with 8 Westminster Seats and have 4 Lords as opposed to UKIP's 2.
3) Should AV pass UKIP should attempt to develop some kind of transfer arrangement with smaller parties to try and break the big three deadlock (TUV in Northern Ireland would be prime candidate off the bat)
4) Aim for between 15-20 MEPs in the 2014 European elections. Euro elections are UKIP's bread and butter and they need to try and achieve a more solid second place (they tied with Labour last time around) Not only would it be a huge achievement for UKIP but would also increase their Gene-pool (God I love using that term) for the General election in 2015 as any MEPs hoping to hop houses would have had a lot of publicity within a year of going to the polls again.
Should everything go well UKIP could see themselves in a prime position to enter the House of Commons, but in the time between now and then a millions things could happen.
Any thoughts? leave a comment
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Voluntary Coalition in Northern Ireland?
With the Current overhaul of the Irish political landscape which may see Fine Gael form a Single Party Government for the first time and the Celtic Fringe Devolved Elections tkaing place in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, Could the next Stormont Assembly be one of Voluntary Coalition?
This Question has cropped up for numerous reasons, The Tories want to see normalisations of Coalition Politics in NI, (they're really getting into the Coalition thing) The Drastic changes predicted for the Republic of Ireland's Government, (including 100% more Baron Gerry Adams) the Possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister and the Potential for TUV MLA to be elected in May.
So the question I pose is, what would this new Northern Irish Coalition look like?
To give an idea of seat numbers i'll use the current numbers (as of February 16th 2011) with a few tweaks, that means our hypothetical Assembly looks something like this;
DUP - 35
Sinn Fein - 27
UUP - 16
SDLP - 16
Alliance - 7
Green - 1
*Fianna Fail - 1
**TUV - 3
Other - 1
***Presiding officer - 1
*Fianna fail currently have a member sitting in the Assembly though he hasn't takent he designation
**The TUV were assigned the 3 current independent Unionist seats
***The Presiding officer is formerly DUP
In the 108 seat Assembly, 54 seats are required for a majority of one (Gov.=54 Opp.=53 P.O.=1)
DUP Led Coalitions?
In our scenario the DUP have remained the Biggest Party in the Assembly (poor Sinn Fein) so they get first crack at forming a Coalition. With their 35 seats they only need the support of 19 more to form a government.
1) DUP + Sinn Fein (62 seat government, majority of 9) - The Grand Coalition. Possibly one of the least likely to ever happen Voluntarily. However it offers the most seats with the fewest number of parties involved. Should this Coalition ever be formed not only would the DUP/Sinn Fein Coalition command quite a strong majority in the Assembly but would also check Cross-Community protocols being made up of the Two largest parties of the Unionist and nationalist Communities. Likely that the DUP would favour the more business and financial orientated Ministries with Sinn Fein focused on the more social, this would allow Sinn Fein to promote it's Irish programs in NI while the DUP handle financial infrastructure. Unlikely to happen as both Parties hate the other with equally.
2) DUP + UUP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of 1) - The Unionist Unity Coalition. An Unlikely option for many reasons. First the TUV would hold to much sway for it's size it's 3 seats being the final piece needed for a majority. Second the Pan-Unionist Government would have problems getting cross-community support unless an arrangement could be made with the SDLP. Thirdly, likely to push up Sinn Fein votes as they will be percieved as the best option to break the Pan-Unionist Government. Finally, majority of one will mean every vote will be needed most of the time and one rebel could defeat Government.
3) DUP + UUP + SDLP (67 seat Government, Majority of 14) - The Workable Coalition. A potential option for a Coalition. The SDLP and UUP have a history working together and are the likely parties to voluntarily leave the Current Executive to form an Opposition. If the UUP/SDLP (Classic) Bloc chose to support the DUP, they would provide a large majority and Cross Community support. Likely to cause a lot of anger from Sinn Fein ranks from what is essentially the Current Executive minus them. SDLP would likely be happy to take the Education brief to try and fix the problems that Sinn Fein couldn't and would also be given the Deputy First Minister to ensure the Coalition appeals to both communities.
4) DUP + Alliance + SDLP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The Bridge Coalition. Choosing the Alliance Party over the UUP would mean that the Bridge Coalition would be made up of a 'Unionist', a 'Nationalist' and an 'Other'. Though a smaller majority than the Workable Coalition, it would allow the UUP a chance to form their new identity and mean the Bridge Coaliton would not be seen as Unionist Dominated. Sinn Fein could not complain that they were purposefully being excluded as so to would the UUP. The TUV would be supportive of the Lack of a Sinn Fein presence in Government. SDLP again takes Deputy First Minster with Alliance remaining at Justice.
5) DUP + Alliance + UUP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The 'ConDem' Coalition. Made up of the Lib Dem sister and the Tory something parties, this coalition would numerically be as strong as the Bridge coalition, though lacking the cross community appeal. Could be seen as the only way the DUP and UUP could form a Unionist coalition without the more hardline TUV.
6) DUP + SDLP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of one) - The Hardline Lite Coalition. An unlikely coalition due to the Hardline Unionism of the TUV and the Nationalism of the SDLP, but would have cross community support. Would also give the UUP time to decide it's future direction.
A seventh option exists in the all but Sinn Fein option in which everyone but Sinn Fein is invited to help form the Government though this will likely backfire and result in Sinn Fein gains.
Sinn Fein First Minister?
Should the DUP find no love with any of the other Parties, perhaps then it will be the opportunity for Sinn Fein to lead the Government of the North.
1) Sinn Fein + SDLP + UUP (59 Seat Government, Majority of 6) - The Anti-DUP coalition. Perhaps the only credible coalition that Sinn fein could actually lead which would have a majority. A deal with the Classic Bloc would give Sinn Fein power but leave them facing the DUP and TUV across the aisle.
Any other Sinn Fein lead Coalition would require both the UUP and SDLP plus anyone else they could get on board.
The reality of the current Seat numbers is that the DUP are the only party to have the numbers to give them a wide range of options in forming a coalition thanks to the 8 seat difference between them and Sinn Fein. As May approaches and talks about DUP/UUP deals in North and West Belfast continue it is likely that by the end of this election cycle the DUP will remain the Strongest party in the Assembly.
I will note however that these coalitions were based on the idea of very little change come May (with the TUV being the exception) and therefore may be pointless. Regardless, What Coalitions could you see forming in Northern Ireland? How much impact will the TUV make? and any other thoughts you have? please comment.
This Question has cropped up for numerous reasons, The Tories want to see normalisations of Coalition Politics in NI, (they're really getting into the Coalition thing) The Drastic changes predicted for the Republic of Ireland's Government, (including 100% more Baron Gerry Adams) the Possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister and the Potential for TUV MLA to be elected in May.
So the question I pose is, what would this new Northern Irish Coalition look like?
To give an idea of seat numbers i'll use the current numbers (as of February 16th 2011) with a few tweaks, that means our hypothetical Assembly looks something like this;
DUP - 35
Sinn Fein - 27
UUP - 16
SDLP - 16
Alliance - 7
Green - 1
*Fianna Fail - 1
**TUV - 3
Other - 1
***Presiding officer - 1
*Fianna fail currently have a member sitting in the Assembly though he hasn't takent he designation
**The TUV were assigned the 3 current independent Unionist seats
***The Presiding officer is formerly DUP
In the 108 seat Assembly, 54 seats are required for a majority of one (Gov.=54 Opp.=53 P.O.=1)
DUP Led Coalitions?
In our scenario the DUP have remained the Biggest Party in the Assembly (poor Sinn Fein) so they get first crack at forming a Coalition. With their 35 seats they only need the support of 19 more to form a government.
1) DUP + Sinn Fein (62 seat government, majority of 9) - The Grand Coalition. Possibly one of the least likely to ever happen Voluntarily. However it offers the most seats with the fewest number of parties involved. Should this Coalition ever be formed not only would the DUP/Sinn Fein Coalition command quite a strong majority in the Assembly but would also check Cross-Community protocols being made up of the Two largest parties of the Unionist and nationalist Communities. Likely that the DUP would favour the more business and financial orientated Ministries with Sinn Fein focused on the more social, this would allow Sinn Fein to promote it's Irish programs in NI while the DUP handle financial infrastructure. Unlikely to happen as both Parties hate the other with equally.
2) DUP + UUP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of 1) - The Unionist Unity Coalition. An Unlikely option for many reasons. First the TUV would hold to much sway for it's size it's 3 seats being the final piece needed for a majority. Second the Pan-Unionist Government would have problems getting cross-community support unless an arrangement could be made with the SDLP. Thirdly, likely to push up Sinn Fein votes as they will be percieved as the best option to break the Pan-Unionist Government. Finally, majority of one will mean every vote will be needed most of the time and one rebel could defeat Government.
3) DUP + UUP + SDLP (67 seat Government, Majority of 14) - The Workable Coalition. A potential option for a Coalition. The SDLP and UUP have a history working together and are the likely parties to voluntarily leave the Current Executive to form an Opposition. If the UUP/SDLP (Classic) Bloc chose to support the DUP, they would provide a large majority and Cross Community support. Likely to cause a lot of anger from Sinn Fein ranks from what is essentially the Current Executive minus them. SDLP would likely be happy to take the Education brief to try and fix the problems that Sinn Fein couldn't and would also be given the Deputy First Minister to ensure the Coalition appeals to both communities.
4) DUP + Alliance + SDLP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The Bridge Coalition. Choosing the Alliance Party over the UUP would mean that the Bridge Coalition would be made up of a 'Unionist', a 'Nationalist' and an 'Other'. Though a smaller majority than the Workable Coalition, it would allow the UUP a chance to form their new identity and mean the Bridge Coaliton would not be seen as Unionist Dominated. Sinn Fein could not complain that they were purposefully being excluded as so to would the UUP. The TUV would be supportive of the Lack of a Sinn Fein presence in Government. SDLP again takes Deputy First Minster with Alliance remaining at Justice.
5) DUP + Alliance + UUP (58 Seat Government, Majority of 5) - The 'ConDem' Coalition. Made up of the Lib Dem sister and the Tory something parties, this coalition would numerically be as strong as the Bridge coalition, though lacking the cross community appeal. Could be seen as the only way the DUP and UUP could form a Unionist coalition without the more hardline TUV.
6) DUP + SDLP + TUV (54 seat Government, Majority of one) - The Hardline Lite Coalition. An unlikely coalition due to the Hardline Unionism of the TUV and the Nationalism of the SDLP, but would have cross community support. Would also give the UUP time to decide it's future direction.
A seventh option exists in the all but Sinn Fein option in which everyone but Sinn Fein is invited to help form the Government though this will likely backfire and result in Sinn Fein gains.
Sinn Fein First Minister?
Should the DUP find no love with any of the other Parties, perhaps then it will be the opportunity for Sinn Fein to lead the Government of the North.
1) Sinn Fein + SDLP + UUP (59 Seat Government, Majority of 6) - The Anti-DUP coalition. Perhaps the only credible coalition that Sinn fein could actually lead which would have a majority. A deal with the Classic Bloc would give Sinn Fein power but leave them facing the DUP and TUV across the aisle.
Any other Sinn Fein lead Coalition would require both the UUP and SDLP plus anyone else they could get on board.
The reality of the current Seat numbers is that the DUP are the only party to have the numbers to give them a wide range of options in forming a coalition thanks to the 8 seat difference between them and Sinn Fein. As May approaches and talks about DUP/UUP deals in North and West Belfast continue it is likely that by the end of this election cycle the DUP will remain the Strongest party in the Assembly.
I will note however that these coalitions were based on the idea of very little change come May (with the TUV being the exception) and therefore may be pointless. Regardless, What Coalitions could you see forming in Northern Ireland? How much impact will the TUV make? and any other thoughts you have? please comment.
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Gerry Adams Heading South
As the run up to the Irish General election expected somewhere in February or March begins, we have had two stories develop before Christmas. First the formation of the United Left Alliance, a grouping of a few of the smaller parties of the Left from the Republic and the news that Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, will be running for the Dail.
This sudden departure from the Politics of Northern Ireland to contest elections in the South has raised a few question marks and I hope to put forward a few possibilities as to why I think he may be departing.
1) Leading the Charge - Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland has established itself as the Second party. With just about 25% of the seats in the Assembly and being able to maintain 5 MPs despite the threat of Unionist Unity Sinn Fein has established itself a nice Stronghold. Now with the Political upheaval as the support for Fianna Fail Collapse in opinion polls as they push through severe austerity measures, Sinn Fein hope to be able to do damage. The current Sinn Fein Dail Group however lacks any of the strength of their brethren to the North so they need someone with the standing of Gerry Adams to help secure as many seats as possible.
2) He's the Boss - As the Leader of Sinn Fein he, though hopefully not by choice, weakens the authority of Martin McGuinness, The Deputy First Minister, by sitting behind him in the Assembly. This is an issue as Sinn Fein hope to become the Largest Party in Northern Ireland due to the possible Unionist civil war that might be brewing in the lead up to the 2011 Assembly election, so Gerry Adams departure helps remove the idea Martin McGuinness being a Puppet First Minister.
3) The TUV - It is likely based on their electoral performances that the TUV will win a seat if not seats in the coming election. As they are wholly anti-power sharing and refer to Sinn Fein as Sinn Fein/IRA as easily as breathing, Gerry Adam's departure shrinks the target at which any incoming TUV MLAs can take aim at.
4) A Last Hoorah - Gerry Adams is 72, so it is likely that his Career is in it's final stage. Rather than simply fade away in the backbenches of Stormont, he has decided to take on the Dail and hopefully bring success to Sinn Fein to help them be established as a
What effect Adams' Departure will have on the Politics of Northern and the Republic of Ireland is anyones guess, but needless to say 2011 will be an interesting year.
This sudden departure from the Politics of Northern Ireland to contest elections in the South has raised a few question marks and I hope to put forward a few possibilities as to why I think he may be departing.
1) Leading the Charge - Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland has established itself as the Second party. With just about 25% of the seats in the Assembly and being able to maintain 5 MPs despite the threat of Unionist Unity Sinn Fein has established itself a nice Stronghold. Now with the Political upheaval as the support for Fianna Fail Collapse in opinion polls as they push through severe austerity measures, Sinn Fein hope to be able to do damage. The current Sinn Fein Dail Group however lacks any of the strength of their brethren to the North so they need someone with the standing of Gerry Adams to help secure as many seats as possible.
2) He's the Boss - As the Leader of Sinn Fein he, though hopefully not by choice, weakens the authority of Martin McGuinness, The Deputy First Minister, by sitting behind him in the Assembly. This is an issue as Sinn Fein hope to become the Largest Party in Northern Ireland due to the possible Unionist civil war that might be brewing in the lead up to the 2011 Assembly election, so Gerry Adams departure helps remove the idea Martin McGuinness being a Puppet First Minister.
3) The TUV - It is likely based on their electoral performances that the TUV will win a seat if not seats in the coming election. As they are wholly anti-power sharing and refer to Sinn Fein as Sinn Fein/IRA as easily as breathing, Gerry Adam's departure shrinks the target at which any incoming TUV MLAs can take aim at.
4) A Last Hoorah - Gerry Adams is 72, so it is likely that his Career is in it's final stage. Rather than simply fade away in the backbenches of Stormont, he has decided to take on the Dail and hopefully bring success to Sinn Fein to help them be established as a
What effect Adams' Departure will have on the Politics of Northern and the Republic of Ireland is anyones guess, but needless to say 2011 will be an interesting year.
Sunday, 14 November 2010
The TUV, The next Stormont Opposition?
As the start of the Election Cycle for the Assembly Governments approach, what role could the TUV play in the next Stormont Assembly?
Within the Power-Sharing Coalition system of the Northern Irish Assembly there is no Official Opposition but next year it could just get one in the form of the TUV. As the five largest parties are almost guaranteed at least one seat thanks to the d'hondt with the Alliance party being given the Justice Department to keep the peace it is doubtful that the TUV which is most likely to become the sixth largest party next year will either qualify nor want to take a seat within the power sharing agreement.
Like it or not any TUV MLAs will take an oppositional role to the Executive challenging them not only on the inclusion of what they view as Sinn Fein/IRA in the power sharing deal but also the system of forced coalition to begin with.
Another interesting aspect is that if the DUP remain the head of the Executive (in the respect of side) is that we could see a Unionist headed Coalition up against a small but vocal Unionist Opposition.
This is of course speculative, the TUV may collapse in the vote as they did during the general elections, perhaps being seen as too extreme to be introduced into the Stormont eco-system.
Within the Power-Sharing Coalition system of the Northern Irish Assembly there is no Official Opposition but next year it could just get one in the form of the TUV. As the five largest parties are almost guaranteed at least one seat thanks to the d'hondt with the Alliance party being given the Justice Department to keep the peace it is doubtful that the TUV which is most likely to become the sixth largest party next year will either qualify nor want to take a seat within the power sharing agreement.
Like it or not any TUV MLAs will take an oppositional role to the Executive challenging them not only on the inclusion of what they view as Sinn Fein/IRA in the power sharing deal but also the system of forced coalition to begin with.
Another interesting aspect is that if the DUP remain the head of the Executive (in the respect of side) is that we could see a Unionist headed Coalition up against a small but vocal Unionist Opposition.
This is of course speculative, the TUV may collapse in the vote as they did during the general elections, perhaps being seen as too extreme to be introduced into the Stormont eco-system.
Sunday, 15 August 2010
How Labour and Conservatives can run in Northern Ireland?
Northern Ireland in the Political Landscape of the UK is an oddity to say the least. Generally Northern Ireland is left to it's own devices and the Major UK parties take a slim interest in the power struggles for Stormont.
The Tories, Bless their cotton socks do make a small effort when it comes to Northern Ireland, They run a few candidates during assembly elections and occasionally link up with the UUP. (Though the UUP+Tory formula does not equal results) If the Tories decided to make a concentrated effort on Northern Ireland they could possibly take a few seats. To get seats though they would need to decide how they would squeeze into the battle;
UUP: The UUP going into 2011 will have a brand new Leader, Zero Westminster seats and no momentum going into the Assembly Elections, Perhaps the Approach Cameron should take is Being the Vulture to the UUP's Corpse, Take the Centre right members of the UUP for the themeselves and leave the DUP and TUV to fight over the leftover Unionists.
Sinn Fein: A difficult plan but it would really depends on how the Tories played it. Cameron has expressed his dislike for McGuinness so it would probably appeal to Cameron to dismantle Sinn Fein's Power. If the Plan of Attack was to point out the Irish schools issue and EU Agriculture Fine as examples poor governance by Sinn Fein and combine it with drawing focus to the fact that during the Recession Sinn Fein spent money running a general election campaign when they had never any intention of taking their seats and back it up with shots on Expenses which Sinn Fein drew Universal ire from every other party for, Cameron could shift support to the SDLP. Admittedly going after Sinn Fein would serve to to weaken an enemy rather than gain Cameron Seats but in the long run it could remove Sinn Fein from politics and allow more Tory friendly parties to take the seats at Westminster.
DUP: The Big Dog in the yard and probably the best left alone, with the DUP having the TUV barking at the doghouse and the Robinson saga they would be in no mood to dance with the Tories.
SDLP: Simple one, the SDLP are the Labour party of Northern Ireland, so if it's played just like that the Tories could then argue to be 'Normalising' politics in Northern Ireland.
In the end they will just have to run and hope.
Labour on the other hand haven't ran candidates, there are Labour parties just not the UK one. I think attempting some sort of official Deal with the SDLP (and possibly Irish Labour party) would be their best bet, creating a Labour Party of sorts of the whole of the British isles would win alot of fans on the left and allow for policies to be calibrated to maximise their effect over two economies.
I personally would love to see one or two seats won by the main parties, I think it would make the assembly more interesting and nudge Stormont towards mainstream politics of the UK.
There are three obstacles in the way however, Sinn Fein, The DUP and Fianna Fail. The DUP will not like the idea of the two big British parties playing in what is effectively their domain and will most liekly fight with everything they have to prevent any victory, Fianna Fail who are setting up shop in Northern Ireland will not be warm to even more competition to the voters they are trying to woo.
Just a little speculation on my part...
The Tories, Bless their cotton socks do make a small effort when it comes to Northern Ireland, They run a few candidates during assembly elections and occasionally link up with the UUP. (Though the UUP+Tory formula does not equal results) If the Tories decided to make a concentrated effort on Northern Ireland they could possibly take a few seats. To get seats though they would need to decide how they would squeeze into the battle;
UUP: The UUP going into 2011 will have a brand new Leader, Zero Westminster seats and no momentum going into the Assembly Elections, Perhaps the Approach Cameron should take is Being the Vulture to the UUP's Corpse, Take the Centre right members of the UUP for the themeselves and leave the DUP and TUV to fight over the leftover Unionists.
Sinn Fein: A difficult plan but it would really depends on how the Tories played it. Cameron has expressed his dislike for McGuinness so it would probably appeal to Cameron to dismantle Sinn Fein's Power. If the Plan of Attack was to point out the Irish schools issue and EU Agriculture Fine as examples poor governance by Sinn Fein and combine it with drawing focus to the fact that during the Recession Sinn Fein spent money running a general election campaign when they had never any intention of taking their seats and back it up with shots on Expenses which Sinn Fein drew Universal ire from every other party for, Cameron could shift support to the SDLP. Admittedly going after Sinn Fein would serve to to weaken an enemy rather than gain Cameron Seats but in the long run it could remove Sinn Fein from politics and allow more Tory friendly parties to take the seats at Westminster.
DUP: The Big Dog in the yard and probably the best left alone, with the DUP having the TUV barking at the doghouse and the Robinson saga they would be in no mood to dance with the Tories.
SDLP: Simple one, the SDLP are the Labour party of Northern Ireland, so if it's played just like that the Tories could then argue to be 'Normalising' politics in Northern Ireland.
In the end they will just have to run and hope.
Labour on the other hand haven't ran candidates, there are Labour parties just not the UK one. I think attempting some sort of official Deal with the SDLP (and possibly Irish Labour party) would be their best bet, creating a Labour Party of sorts of the whole of the British isles would win alot of fans on the left and allow for policies to be calibrated to maximise their effect over two economies.
I personally would love to see one or two seats won by the main parties, I think it would make the assembly more interesting and nudge Stormont towards mainstream politics of the UK.
There are three obstacles in the way however, Sinn Fein, The DUP and Fianna Fail. The DUP will not like the idea of the two big British parties playing in what is effectively their domain and will most liekly fight with everything they have to prevent any victory, Fianna Fail who are setting up shop in Northern Ireland will not be warm to even more competition to the voters they are trying to woo.
Just a little speculation on my part...
Saturday, 8 May 2010
The Slow Death of the UUP
Although the General Election saw the First Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson lose his Westminster seat to the Alliance, it is the UUP who truly lost in Northern Ireland. This party was once one of the big two in Northern Ireland and now they have lost the little UK representation they had, have we in the last few weeks witnessed a lurch towards death for the UUP?
Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.
On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.
Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?
Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.
Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.
Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.
Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.
On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.
Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?
Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.
Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.
Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
SDLP - General election 2010
The SDLP, One of the parties in the Northern Ireland executive, 4th largest party of Northern Ireland.
The SDLP would love in this election to overtake Sinn Fein in seats and reclaim the position of Dominant Irish nationalist party in Westminster, Sadly as this is Margaret Ritchie first General election as Leader while Sinn Fein have both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Nationalist strongholds. However with the Unionist Pact for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein already look to lose a seat, the SDLP can only hope an agreement is not reached by the Unionists for South Belfast as well or the SDLP will most likely lose a seat as well.
Things I believe the SDLP should do during the election and after would be;
1) Unionist Civil War - Even though the DUP and UUP agreed on one Unity Candidate already doesn't Unionists are getting along, with the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) in the election fray as well and the loss of Lady Hermon for the UUP the Unionist seats will be an all out battle to see who will be the biggest Unionist Dog in the yard. The SDLP should avoid the topic too much in case to be seen as fanning the flames of discontent within the unionist community.
2) Sinn Fein - With Sinn Fein already looking like they've lost a seat the SDLP need to hammer them in the other two seats Sinn Fein have, attacking Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness would be a waste of resources, those two are firmly entrenched in their constituencies. Smart play made already by Ritchie turning down Gerry Adams' offer for a Nationalist Pact citing the hypocrisy in making a pact after bad mouthing the Unionists, made Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams (whose had a bad year already with his family problems and allegations from beyond the grave) look bad. It wasn;t a knockout punch for the SDLP but it was a clear warning shot that they want very little to do with Sinn Fein.
3) Justice - the entire devolution of Justice saga has given the SDLP ammunition against the DUP and Sinn Fein, Using that bullet at the right time could do some damage to the two parties records by highlighting how they are messing with the system to hurt the SDLP and UUP
4) New friends? - If Labour don't come out on top the SDLP should consider finding some new friends in Westminster, Possibles choices being the Celtic Bloc, Mebyon Kernow and the TUSC.
5) Early Start - as an Article in the BBC reecently said, Politics is a National Past time in Northern Ireland and the pinnacle of that is Stormont, the SDLP need to use the General election to get a running start at the Assembly election next year and pick out early targets so they can maximise their chances at moving up in the Stormont food chain. With early Prediction putting Sinn Fein as the top dog next year the SDLP have to make sure it doesn't happen at their expense.
For the SDLP the General Election will be the start of a Trial by Fire for Margaret Ritchie, If she can help build the SDLP (and knock Sinn Fein down a bit) she could become one of the Big Guns of Northern Irish politics, if She chooses to only sit in Westminster and the SDLP improve its standings she could make an interesting addition to a Labour Cabinet perhaps as the Northern Ireland Secretary (a position that may cease to exist if devolution continues). If she decided to follow Peter Robinson's idea and sit in Both Stormont and Westminster it could help her develop more of a relationship with Peter Robinson who does not get on well with McGuinness and potentially alter the entire power Dynamic of the Northern Ireland Executive and leave Sinn Fein in a similiar position as the one it is in down in the Republic of Ireland, Friendless.
The SDLP would love in this election to overtake Sinn Fein in seats and reclaim the position of Dominant Irish nationalist party in Westminster, Sadly as this is Margaret Ritchie first General election as Leader while Sinn Fein have both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Nationalist strongholds. However with the Unionist Pact for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein already look to lose a seat, the SDLP can only hope an agreement is not reached by the Unionists for South Belfast as well or the SDLP will most likely lose a seat as well.
Things I believe the SDLP should do during the election and after would be;
1) Unionist Civil War - Even though the DUP and UUP agreed on one Unity Candidate already doesn't Unionists are getting along, with the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) in the election fray as well and the loss of Lady Hermon for the UUP the Unionist seats will be an all out battle to see who will be the biggest Unionist Dog in the yard. The SDLP should avoid the topic too much in case to be seen as fanning the flames of discontent within the unionist community.
2) Sinn Fein - With Sinn Fein already looking like they've lost a seat the SDLP need to hammer them in the other two seats Sinn Fein have, attacking Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness would be a waste of resources, those two are firmly entrenched in their constituencies. Smart play made already by Ritchie turning down Gerry Adams' offer for a Nationalist Pact citing the hypocrisy in making a pact after bad mouthing the Unionists, made Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams (whose had a bad year already with his family problems and allegations from beyond the grave) look bad. It wasn;t a knockout punch for the SDLP but it was a clear warning shot that they want very little to do with Sinn Fein.
3) Justice - the entire devolution of Justice saga has given the SDLP ammunition against the DUP and Sinn Fein, Using that bullet at the right time could do some damage to the two parties records by highlighting how they are messing with the system to hurt the SDLP and UUP
4) New friends? - If Labour don't come out on top the SDLP should consider finding some new friends in Westminster, Possibles choices being the Celtic Bloc, Mebyon Kernow and the TUSC.
5) Early Start - as an Article in the BBC reecently said, Politics is a National Past time in Northern Ireland and the pinnacle of that is Stormont, the SDLP need to use the General election to get a running start at the Assembly election next year and pick out early targets so they can maximise their chances at moving up in the Stormont food chain. With early Prediction putting Sinn Fein as the top dog next year the SDLP have to make sure it doesn't happen at their expense.
For the SDLP the General Election will be the start of a Trial by Fire for Margaret Ritchie, If she can help build the SDLP (and knock Sinn Fein down a bit) she could become one of the Big Guns of Northern Irish politics, if She chooses to only sit in Westminster and the SDLP improve its standings she could make an interesting addition to a Labour Cabinet perhaps as the Northern Ireland Secretary (a position that may cease to exist if devolution continues). If she decided to follow Peter Robinson's idea and sit in Both Stormont and Westminster it could help her develop more of a relationship with Peter Robinson who does not get on well with McGuinness and potentially alter the entire power Dynamic of the Northern Ireland Executive and leave Sinn Fein in a similiar position as the one it is in down in the Republic of Ireland, Friendless.
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