Alex Salmond Versus Peter Robinson

Vote 2011 has left us with a new Champion of Nationalism in the form of Alex Salmond backed by a SNP majority in the Scottish Parliament but Unionism not to be out-done has brought Peter Robinson to the front of a DUP charge in Northern Ireland.

With the SNP success in Scotland many pundits have been talking about what this means for the UK and how David Cameron will now have to deal with the an empowered Salmond. To be fair Salmond does have a list of demands already at hand for the Coalition of Westminster; Corporation tax powers, borrowing powers, control over the crwon estate commission in Scotland and a referendum on Scotland's Independence from the UK.
But Cameron is the Final boss of the Game, the Bid bad at the top of the Castle with an army of Tory henchmen surrounding him. To get the powers he wants Salmond may soon find the SNP facing down the DUP.
Reading this there may be some confusion considering that the SNP is in Scotland and the DUP are in Northern Ireland still buried in the constant Battle Royal that is Stormont Politics. But consider the Liberal Democrats following Vote 2011. The have been outright decimated across the board and there are rumbling of either Clegg stepping down or the Liberal Democrats leaving the Coalition and offering support on a vote by vote basis.
Should the Coalition split the Conservatives will want to shore up some more support among the other parties and who is the fourth largest party in Westminster?

That's right the DUP.

So to ensure the support for the Coalition so as not to face the polls with a SNP enjoying huge support in Scotland and threatening to further imbalance Parliament the DUP will be the prime target as they will hopefully bring the other NI parties with them.

Unionists will then be the Crux of the SNP and this is where Alex Salmond then faces his biggest problem.

The SNP have not had to face down a Die-Hard Unionist party in this Generation, they have been taking on the three Westminster parties whose Unionism is occasionally wheeled out, mainly to annoy the SNP. The DUP on the other hand are the perpetual opponents of Sinn Fein, undoubtedly the most Die-hard ideologically of the Nationalist parties and the SDLP one of the most experienced Nationalist parties in terms of government and negotiation.

The rise of the SNP also presents a unique opportunity for the DUP, with the Mandatory Coalition and a generally good relationship with Sinn Fein in Stormont, the DUP are in need of a target to maintain their momentum with the Electorate for the next Euro elections without causing themselves problems in Stormont the SNP nationalist 'threat' presents a target for the DUP, with the added benefits of allowing the DUP to say they are engaging in UK-wide politics rather than just being NI-Centric.

I would pay good money to see the re-energised Peter Robinson and Alex Salmond in a TV debate on the UK's constitutional future.

Vote 2011 - Party Results and Leader Analysis

The Election across the UK have now finished, AV has been beaten into the ground, Scotland has it's first majority Government and one party faced what could only be described as all-out destruction.. so now that the dust is settling how did all the multitude of parties do and what of their Leaders?

Conservatives

The Senior Partner of the ConDem Coalition had a somewhat unusual electoral period. Their peculiar results were an odd mix of bad and good across the Isle of Great Britain (their NI council results aren't known yet)

England - Across the English Councils the Tory Party found itself with a net gain of 81 new councillors, this crop of new councillors brought gifts however, in the shape of overall control of 4 councils. An unusual result as the Tories are a party in Government and were expecting a bloody nose. The results would suggest that the Liberal Democrats were the political equivalent of a yellow Flak jacket for the party of Blue.

Scotland - The Westminster party lost a quarter of it's Holyrood seats during the SNP charge. Some pundits are already questioning the future of the Scottish Tories as a credible fore in Scotland, but the Prime Minister will be gearing up to clash with Salmond and will need his small band of Scot-Tories to help chip away at the SNP.

Wales - Net gains of 2 in the Welsh Assembly have allowed the Conservatives to ascend to Second place with the Welsh Assembly. Unfortunately the loss of their Leader due to their own success was a bit of a blow and the rise of Welsh Labour has taken any chance of a Rainbow Coalition.

David Cameron - The Prime Minister may have been able to walk away with a score of 3 (AV, England, Wales) out of a possible 4 win he could take back to Tory HQ, but faced with a parliamentary secure Alex Salmond and a likely despondent Liberal Democrat Party he will face some further hurdles in the year ahead.

Labour

Labour's results were as mixed as the Tories, not least because of their divided stance on the issue of AV.

England - 800 new councillors bolstered Labour's ranks and 26 councils came with them, so a good haul for the party of opposition. The Labour Party made light work of the Liberal Democrats showing the Junior Coalition partner what a big party could do.

Scotland - A disappointing Scottish election for the Labour party in what should be a heartland. The rise of Salmond to overall control of Scotland has forced Iain Grey to resign and the party found themselves down 7 seats at the end of the night. A charismatic leader will be needed to engage with Salmond, and they'd better find one quick.

Wales - Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Labour Party took half the seats in the Welsh Assembly a definite win for them but will it be enough to keep control of Wales. Initial reports suggest they are going to try and enter some sort of agreement with another party, whether that will be another Coalition remains to be seen.

Ed Miliband - 'Red Ed' can not really claim the election as a win for himself at the end of the Day, he backed AV, which failed, He made the Scottish Election about Westminster, which backfired, In England he ripped apart a weak Liberal Democrat Party and in Wales most of the leadership was done by First Minister Jones..so while mixed for the Labour Party 'Red Ed' may still be in trouble.

Liberal Democrats

Bloody, Broken, Beaten, Destroyed, Hammered, Demolished or Annihilated.. the list of ways to describe the Liberal Democrat performance is longer than this and any blog post in history could handle.

England - Almost 700 councillors and 9 councils were lost, the Liberal Democrats, torn apart by an electorate who quickly withdrew to the Labour and Conservative camps, have been decimated in England. It could take many years for the Lib Dems to recover their seats, though the Green now seems to be the new yellow.

Scotland - A double hitter as the Scot-Libdems lose 12 seats and their Leader Tavish Scott hands in his resignation, blaming the Coalition for the losses as he goes.

Wales - For three election the Liberal Democrats maintained 6 seats, now they only have 5, a glimmer of hope remains that labour will choose them as a Welsh Coalition partner which may redeem them in the Welsh Electorate's eyes.

Nick Clegg - 'King-Maker Clegg' may have to make a choice, stay in coalition but give up leadership or head to opposition and hope for the best. Disappointing.

Scottish National Party (SNP)

The SNP are perhaps on e of the biggest winner in this election. Gaining overall control of Scotland was no easy feat but somehow Alex Salmond managed it. The SNP will now have to be careful, there is no easy excuse like that available to them as a minority government and they will have to be smart in dealing with Prime Minister Cameron, but a very weaken and in 2/3 of cases leaderless opposition will make the SNP start of term a bit easier.

Alex Salmond - The First Minster now has overall control of Scotland, but his determination for Independence may cause him problems, especially with David Cameron as his main opponent who has not only been unscathed by the election but perhaps even in a stronger position despite the loss of a few Scottish seats.

Plaid Cymru

The Welsh Nationalists have lost their number 2 place to the Tories after losing four seats and in the elections that saw Scottish Nationalism rise the Welsh Nationalist will have to consider their future, and elect a new Deputy Leader.

Ieuan Wyn Jones - The Plaid Cymru Leader may be at the end of his reign, he brought his party into government as a Junior Coalition partner and like the Lib Dems he paid a price for it.

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)

The DUP are one of the big winners in these election, they may have only gained two seats but their party and leader have recovered from a somewhat disappointing performance last year.

Peter Robinson - Alex Salmond isn't the only Leader to be elevated by the election, First Minster Robinson has been received as the new Champion of Unionism for his positive and well fought campaign and considering what his position was like last year it is a startling turn around.

Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein only managed a gain of one seat and have considered this somewhat disappointing as they could have achieved more but for some mistake in their vote management strategy.

Martin McGuinness - Mr McGuinness will continue his role as Deputy First Minister but may face an annoyance from the newly elected Jim Allister

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)

The UUP found themselves down two seats and their leader followed that up by calling some people with flags 'scum'

Tom Elliot -Mr Elliot saw orange after the election and attacked Sinn Fein supporters, his position as leader will most likely depends on whether or not he take the UUP into opposition.

Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP)

The SDLP found themselves Down two seats as well like the UUP and find themselves pondering leaving the executive

Margaret Ritchie - The newly crowned SDLP leader may be already in trouble of having to consider her position.

Alliance

The Alliance Party made a gain and may get an executive seat, but trouble lies ahead in regards to the justice ministry and a rather annoyed UUP.

David Ford- Mr. Ford will have to take care when handling the exectuive seat hand-out but otherwise is doing well.

Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)

The party that some said may split open Unionism only managed to scrape one seat and essentially replaced the PUP as the minority Unionist Party. Their future will be in serious doubt.

Jim Allister - Unable to actually achieve the quota, Mr Allister will have a rough entrance into the Assembly, his only hope is that the UUP go into opposition and want his help to attack the DUP/Sinn Fein

Green

The green maintained in Northern Ireland and gained a seat in Scotland along with a batch of new councillors they had a very successful election though they have yet to break into the Welsh scene in a meaningful way.

They have several leaders who will all take a little something from this election.

United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)

Failings in strategy led to no gains across the board for UKIP.

Nigel Farage - Nigel can only hope to build on the votes he got and take them forward to the next Euro Election.

British National Party (BNP)

One of the losers of the Election, the BNP lost a large number of councillors and made no gain in the Celtic fringe.

Nick Griffin - The BNP was in trouble before the election and seems to be circling the drain.



Conclusion - Alex Salmond and Peter Robinson are the big winners, Red Ed and King-maker Clegg are going to have to step up if they want to stay in the game.