Northern Ireland in the Political Landscape of the UK is an oddity to say the least. Generally Northern Ireland is left to it's own devices and the Major UK parties take a slim interest in the power struggles for Stormont.
The Tories, Bless their cotton socks do make a small effort when it comes to Northern Ireland, They run a few candidates during assembly elections and occasionally link up with the UUP. (Though the UUP+Tory formula does not equal results) If the Tories decided to make a concentrated effort on Northern Ireland they could possibly take a few seats. To get seats though they would need to decide how they would squeeze into the battle;
UUP: The UUP going into 2011 will have a brand new Leader, Zero Westminster seats and no momentum going into the Assembly Elections, Perhaps the Approach Cameron should take is Being the Vulture to the UUP's Corpse, Take the Centre right members of the UUP for the themeselves and leave the DUP and TUV to fight over the leftover Unionists.
Sinn Fein: A difficult plan but it would really depends on how the Tories played it. Cameron has expressed his dislike for McGuinness so it would probably appeal to Cameron to dismantle Sinn Fein's Power. If the Plan of Attack was to point out the Irish schools issue and EU Agriculture Fine as examples poor governance by Sinn Fein and combine it with drawing focus to the fact that during the Recession Sinn Fein spent money running a general election campaign when they had never any intention of taking their seats and back it up with shots on Expenses which Sinn Fein drew Universal ire from every other party for, Cameron could shift support to the SDLP. Admittedly going after Sinn Fein would serve to to weaken an enemy rather than gain Cameron Seats but in the long run it could remove Sinn Fein from politics and allow more Tory friendly parties to take the seats at Westminster.
DUP: The Big Dog in the yard and probably the best left alone, with the DUP having the TUV barking at the doghouse and the Robinson saga they would be in no mood to dance with the Tories.
SDLP: Simple one, the SDLP are the Labour party of Northern Ireland, so if it's played just like that the Tories could then argue to be 'Normalising' politics in Northern Ireland.
In the end they will just have to run and hope.
Labour on the other hand haven't ran candidates, there are Labour parties just not the UK one. I think attempting some sort of official Deal with the SDLP (and possibly Irish Labour party) would be their best bet, creating a Labour Party of sorts of the whole of the British isles would win alot of fans on the left and allow for policies to be calibrated to maximise their effect over two economies.
I personally would love to see one or two seats won by the main parties, I think it would make the assembly more interesting and nudge Stormont towards mainstream politics of the UK.
There are three obstacles in the way however, Sinn Fein, The DUP and Fianna Fail. The DUP will not like the idea of the two big British parties playing in what is effectively their domain and will most liekly fight with everything they have to prevent any victory, Fianna Fail who are setting up shop in Northern Ireland will not be warm to even more competition to the voters they are trying to woo.
Just a little speculation on my part...
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Saturday, 8 May 2010
General Election 2010 - Possible Governments
This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Friday, 9 April 2010
The Celtic Bloc - General Election 2010
In the lead up to the Election the Scottish Nationalist Part and Plaid Cymru have decided to team up and form the Celtic Bloc,
As they are working as a Unit I shall treat them as such in this post though if requested I will do separate ones for each party
1) Support the English Democrats - although there is confusion about whether or not the English Democrats are just a slightly nicer version of the BNP or just the English version of SNP/Plaid the Celtic Bloc should try to help the English Democrats if the Latter is the case. Why? Because even if the EngDems get only one or two seats that is one or two seats to add to the Celtic Bloc (which may need to be renamed if the EngDems do get a seat) and every seat the Celtic/Nat Bloc gets the more they become a challenger to the Lib Dems.
2) Woo the SDLP - Pretty much the same idea again with the Northern Irish SDLP, problem is they already support Labour so it will take a bit more work, however as the SNP and SDLP share similar constitutional goals it wouldn't be to difficult to see either the SDLP defect to the Celtic/Nat bloc if the Conservatives wind up on top but short of overall control, This could give a Nat bloc of somewhere around 15-20 seats, enough to give someone the support if one of the Big Two fall only a little bit short of overall majority.
3) Nationalist War - Make it as clear as possible the lack of racial motivated policy within the Celtic Bloc so as to demonstrate as many differences as possible between themselves and the BNP, it's an obvious point but there are alot of people running around with nationalist in their name so it can't hurt to point it out.
4) Don't go Overboard - I aim this one particularly at the SNP who are more pronounced than Plaid in their ideas. If the SNP go crazy with what their demands for support are they are giving Power to the Lib Dems as they will scare off any chance that Lab/Con will come to them for help.
5) Criticise the Pact - The Tories have an electoral Pact with the UUP of Northern Ireland, it can be a huge target if played right, particulary in regards to getting the SDLP into the Bloc as they too aren't happy with it and also in getting the Tories to think about their relationship with the UUP if they need the Celtic Bloc's help.
6) Pick the Right fight - Labour is a Bleeding Giant of Seats right now, if the Celtic Bloc pick the right ones they could steal a couple of seats and put themselves in a more comfy position for the next 4 years.
7) Watch Out for the Other little Guys - the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition "TUSC" (made up of; Socialist Party, Socialist Resistance, Socialist Workers Party and Solidarity) are running just under 45 candidates, 10 of them are in Scotland with a few in Wales. Since they have all decided to play nice this could hurt the both the Bloc and Labour since theses seats are already left leaning and could either weaken the Bloc enough for another party to take the seat or if the electorate decide to really punish the more well established parties give them a seat or two.
The Engdems have signed up with the Alliance for Democracy (made up of; Christian Party, English Democrats, Jury Team, Popular Alliance, UK First Party and Veritas) It is doubtful these parties will make a break through in terms of seats (except the Eng Dems, and the independents will be vague have their own positions) but the AOD could still hurt votes for the other parties depending on where their candidates pop up.
As they are working as a Unit I shall treat them as such in this post though if requested I will do separate ones for each party
1) Support the English Democrats - although there is confusion about whether or not the English Democrats are just a slightly nicer version of the BNP or just the English version of SNP/Plaid the Celtic Bloc should try to help the English Democrats if the Latter is the case. Why? Because even if the EngDems get only one or two seats that is one or two seats to add to the Celtic Bloc (which may need to be renamed if the EngDems do get a seat) and every seat the Celtic/Nat Bloc gets the more they become a challenger to the Lib Dems.
2) Woo the SDLP - Pretty much the same idea again with the Northern Irish SDLP, problem is they already support Labour so it will take a bit more work, however as the SNP and SDLP share similar constitutional goals it wouldn't be to difficult to see either the SDLP defect to the Celtic/Nat bloc if the Conservatives wind up on top but short of overall control, This could give a Nat bloc of somewhere around 15-20 seats, enough to give someone the support if one of the Big Two fall only a little bit short of overall majority.
3) Nationalist War - Make it as clear as possible the lack of racial motivated policy within the Celtic Bloc so as to demonstrate as many differences as possible between themselves and the BNP, it's an obvious point but there are alot of people running around with nationalist in their name so it can't hurt to point it out.
4) Don't go Overboard - I aim this one particularly at the SNP who are more pronounced than Plaid in their ideas. If the SNP go crazy with what their demands for support are they are giving Power to the Lib Dems as they will scare off any chance that Lab/Con will come to them for help.
5) Criticise the Pact - The Tories have an electoral Pact with the UUP of Northern Ireland, it can be a huge target if played right, particulary in regards to getting the SDLP into the Bloc as they too aren't happy with it and also in getting the Tories to think about their relationship with the UUP if they need the Celtic Bloc's help.
6) Pick the Right fight - Labour is a Bleeding Giant of Seats right now, if the Celtic Bloc pick the right ones they could steal a couple of seats and put themselves in a more comfy position for the next 4 years.
7) Watch Out for the Other little Guys - the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition "TUSC" (made up of; Socialist Party, Socialist Resistance, Socialist Workers Party and Solidarity) are running just under 45 candidates, 10 of them are in Scotland with a few in Wales. Since they have all decided to play nice this could hurt the both the Bloc and Labour since theses seats are already left leaning and could either weaken the Bloc enough for another party to take the seat or if the electorate decide to really punish the more well established parties give them a seat or two.
The Engdems have signed up with the Alliance for Democracy (made up of; Christian Party, English Democrats, Jury Team, Popular Alliance, UK First Party and Veritas) It is doubtful these parties will make a break through in terms of seats (except the Eng Dems, and the independents will be vague have their own positions) but the AOD could still hurt votes for the other parties depending on where their candidates pop up.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)