On The 13th of January the first By-election since the Coalition Government was formed will take place.
10 Candidates have entered the fray and despite the usual media blackout on any party that isn't the big three, this is a by far a for gone conclusion. Articles in the Guardian already claim that all three big parties could be in for a slap from the electorate. But what would a win by any of the Candidates mean? (In no particular order in an effort for some level of fairness)
Stephen Morris - English Democrats - With the Mayoralty of Doncaster and a few local councillors under their belt, the English Democrats are (based on votes at the General election) 13th on what I like to think of as the UK league table. A win by the English Democrats would be a huge slap not only for the big three parties but also the Leaders of the big three as; 'Red Ed' would lose his first electoral clash in the Labour leadership, 'King-maker' Clegg would lose an election his party fought tooth and nail to get, and David Cameron (he hasn't got much of a nickname yet) would have to deal with the fact his soft campaign to get the Lib Dems in not only failed but allowed another party into the house. For the English Democrats themselves the PR boost alone in gaining the seat could propel their share of votes up in any upcoming election. They will have to consider how they operate within the house (something I touched upon here ) most likely joining the 'Celtic Bloc' of the SNP and Plaid will be good position for the English Democrats as it will make the Bloc (which will most likely have to be renamed) a more viable coalition partner as it removes the 'Anyone but England' aspect of the bloc when potentially forming a coalition.
Elwyn Watkins - Liberal Democrats - This by-election is crucial for 'King-maker' Clegg. A win will soothe Lib dem fears over their electoral future and help replenish some of the seats lost due to a polarisation of the vote in 2010. From a PR stand point the win will help Clegg sell his parties position as he will be able to point to the fact that his party are still winning seats and therefore have the backing of the public. As this is also the year of the AV referendum, Celtic Elections and English council elections a win now may help the Lib Dems maintain rather than lose their current seats status allowing them to ride out the current coalition till 2015 with more or less the same seats they started with.
Peter Allen - Green Party - For the Green party of England and Wales (Currently ranked 7th in my mind) Oldham offers the chance to prove that the election of Caroline Lucas in Brighton was not a one off and the win would help on the road to proving to the electorate that they are a credible alternative, not just in Westminster, but also in the Celtic Elections coming up in May. A second Green in the commons could be an argument for the Greens to back the Celtic Bloc in a similar way in that they back the SNP minority Government in Scotland, but unless the Greens could extract some sort of electoral arrangement in Scotland and Wales to help improve (and in the case of Wales, get) their seat share within the respective devolved bodies a deal is unlikely. From a PR stand point the election of another Green would help push more environmental policies showing that the public does think that the environment should be prioritised with the election of two Greens to the current parliament. And of course a similar sentiment for the big three as I mentioned in the English Democrat section.
Paul Nuttal MEP - UKIP - With two Lords and being the second biggest British party in the European Parliament (Currently ranked 4th by me) UKIP will be hoping that Oldham East is their door into the House of Commons. By putting forward an MEP, UKIP will perhaps be reminding the public that they are a credible party. If they win, the benefits will mostly be from PR, One MP in a Parliament that is shifting towards Coalition style politics is not a big asset but will, like all smaller parties help boost their chances for the devolved elections and allow them to build their representation outside of Brussels. One possible outcome could be that if UKIP make it into the Commons, they may attract some Tory defectors unhappy with the Coalition's direction towards Europe. (and again big three get a slap if UKIP win)
Kashif Ali - Conservative - Mr Ali occupies and unique position in this election, in that he is the candidate that no other party, including his own, wants to win. Should he manage to win despite a soft campaign from Conservative HQ to allow the Lib Dems to win, he will bring very few benefits to the party (in the grander scheme of things NOT in a personal sense)as the Lib Dems will take a huge hit to their morale and potentially lead to more problems for the Coalition. However is Kashif does win 'Red Ed' Miliband may find himself in trouble with a party that already has doubts about which brother they should have empowered.
Derek Adams - BNP - The BNP's two Euro seat win was a huge breakthrough for the party (they are also 5th in the Rankings) and they will hope that Oldham provides another. A win here, will in a similar sense to the Lib Dems, provide some internal ease for the party who has been going through some internal problems in regards to finance and Leadership along with similar benefits the other smaller parties would also gain from a win.
Debbie Abrahams - Labour - Labour (Currently number 2 in rankings) have a lot riding on the Oldham by-election. For 'Red Ed' it will provide a mark in the win column for his fledgling Leadership and help stave off any would-be coups that are already beginning to fester. It will also give them more ammunition in their battle against Coalition policies, especially the spending cuts and allow Labour to fan the flames in regards to Lib Dem electoral fears over their Union with the Conservatives. It will also be a comfort to party activists who may still be worried about their party's electoral chances in regards to the upcoming elections in that the public have shifted into a more anti-coalition mindset which may allow Labour to gain overall control of Wales and perhaps minority control of Scotland.
Loz Kaye - Pirate Party UK - The Pirates, who currently occupy 44th in the rankings are the legitimate outsider in this election, but by putting forward their leader and fighting in an election which has a lot of eyes focused on it, they will hopefully come out with a huge publicity boost that may translate into a few council or Celtic seats in the upcoming elections in May. A win by the Pirates would be a huge surprise and not to just the main three but also the more mid-field parties like the Greens, EngDems, UKIP and BNP and should the Pirates overtake any other party (except the joke parties) it will be a huge blow to that party to be beaten by a party which only fielded nine candidates in the General Election (English Democrats were the next lowest with 107 candidates) so as long as the Pirates stay ahead of the Monster raving loony party and the Bus Pass-Elvis party they cant lose.
David Bishop of the Bus-pass Elvis party and The Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loony Party (Ranked 27th) are the joke parties and a win by them would most probably surprise them more than any of us.
While not every party is fighting to win (Conservatives and Joke parties) the final results table will be a benefit to some and a cost to others, a late PR Xmas pressie or a PR nightmare... Lovely way to kick of 2011
Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2011. Show all posts
Monday, 3 January 2011
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Gerry Adams Heading South
As the run up to the Irish General election expected somewhere in February or March begins, we have had two stories develop before Christmas. First the formation of the United Left Alliance, a grouping of a few of the smaller parties of the Left from the Republic and the news that Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, will be running for the Dail.
This sudden departure from the Politics of Northern Ireland to contest elections in the South has raised a few question marks and I hope to put forward a few possibilities as to why I think he may be departing.
1) Leading the Charge - Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland has established itself as the Second party. With just about 25% of the seats in the Assembly and being able to maintain 5 MPs despite the threat of Unionist Unity Sinn Fein has established itself a nice Stronghold. Now with the Political upheaval as the support for Fianna Fail Collapse in opinion polls as they push through severe austerity measures, Sinn Fein hope to be able to do damage. The current Sinn Fein Dail Group however lacks any of the strength of their brethren to the North so they need someone with the standing of Gerry Adams to help secure as many seats as possible.
2) He's the Boss - As the Leader of Sinn Fein he, though hopefully not by choice, weakens the authority of Martin McGuinness, The Deputy First Minister, by sitting behind him in the Assembly. This is an issue as Sinn Fein hope to become the Largest Party in Northern Ireland due to the possible Unionist civil war that might be brewing in the lead up to the 2011 Assembly election, so Gerry Adams departure helps remove the idea Martin McGuinness being a Puppet First Minister.
3) The TUV - It is likely based on their electoral performances that the TUV will win a seat if not seats in the coming election. As they are wholly anti-power sharing and refer to Sinn Fein as Sinn Fein/IRA as easily as breathing, Gerry Adam's departure shrinks the target at which any incoming TUV MLAs can take aim at.
4) A Last Hoorah - Gerry Adams is 72, so it is likely that his Career is in it's final stage. Rather than simply fade away in the backbenches of Stormont, he has decided to take on the Dail and hopefully bring success to Sinn Fein to help them be established as a
What effect Adams' Departure will have on the Politics of Northern and the Republic of Ireland is anyones guess, but needless to say 2011 will be an interesting year.
This sudden departure from the Politics of Northern Ireland to contest elections in the South has raised a few question marks and I hope to put forward a few possibilities as to why I think he may be departing.
1) Leading the Charge - Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland has established itself as the Second party. With just about 25% of the seats in the Assembly and being able to maintain 5 MPs despite the threat of Unionist Unity Sinn Fein has established itself a nice Stronghold. Now with the Political upheaval as the support for Fianna Fail Collapse in opinion polls as they push through severe austerity measures, Sinn Fein hope to be able to do damage. The current Sinn Fein Dail Group however lacks any of the strength of their brethren to the North so they need someone with the standing of Gerry Adams to help secure as many seats as possible.
2) He's the Boss - As the Leader of Sinn Fein he, though hopefully not by choice, weakens the authority of Martin McGuinness, The Deputy First Minister, by sitting behind him in the Assembly. This is an issue as Sinn Fein hope to become the Largest Party in Northern Ireland due to the possible Unionist civil war that might be brewing in the lead up to the 2011 Assembly election, so Gerry Adams departure helps remove the idea Martin McGuinness being a Puppet First Minister.
3) The TUV - It is likely based on their electoral performances that the TUV will win a seat if not seats in the coming election. As they are wholly anti-power sharing and refer to Sinn Fein as Sinn Fein/IRA as easily as breathing, Gerry Adam's departure shrinks the target at which any incoming TUV MLAs can take aim at.
4) A Last Hoorah - Gerry Adams is 72, so it is likely that his Career is in it's final stage. Rather than simply fade away in the backbenches of Stormont, he has decided to take on the Dail and hopefully bring success to Sinn Fein to help them be established as a
What effect Adams' Departure will have on the Politics of Northern and the Republic of Ireland is anyones guess, but needless to say 2011 will be an interesting year.
Saturday, 11 December 2010
ConDem 2011?
With the Conservative/Liberal Democrat surviving a rebellion by either side it is safe to assume that until 2015 the Westminster Coalition will survive, the question is, could the ConDem's take the Westminster show on the road to Cardiff and Edinburgh?
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
The answer... kinda?
In Scotland a party needs 65 seats for a majority and in Wales 30 seats is needed for control. At the moment neither has a Single party government majority with the SNP governing as a Minority administration and Wales being run by a Labour/Plaid Cymru Coalition.
In the spirit of prediction we will assume that the seats shall remain the same after the election in 2011, with anti-Labour sentiment from Brown and anti-Condem sentiment cancelling each other out and the Nationalists being unable to really gain as they to are Governing parties.
In Scotland the brand new Scottish ConDem bloc would hold 32 seats in the Scottish Parliament, just short of halfway of forming a ConDem Scottish administration. Sadly the SNP and Labour are just as likely to hit themselves in the face with large shovels than enter into Coalition with the ConDems.
In Wales however there is hope, Plaid at the last election tried to make a 'Rainbow Coalition' with all the other Welsh parties but for whatever reason failed and chose instead to be the Junior Partner in a Lab Cymru Coalition. But with the ConDems on 19 seats and Plaid with 14/15 (the presiding officer has always been Plaid) they would command at least 33 seats and therefore be able to form Government.
But why would Plaid side with the ConDems when the SNP won't?
Historically in all 3 of the Assemblys since 1999 the Welsh Assembly was ruled alone by or in a coalition led by Labour, who were also the party in Power in Westminster.
The obvious advantages to having the backing of Westminster may be what sways Plaid to push again for their 'Rainbow Coalition'. Backed by the ConDems, Plaid would have the power to push their legislation, helping the Condems by forcing Labour even further into the Political Wilderness of Opposition.
Of course this is all speculation based on the idea of a no seat change result in 2011. With Students likely to punish Lib Dems at any opportunity, they are quite likely to see a hit in their seat numbers which may make ConDem blocs impractical, especially if Labour pick up the Lib Dems seats and take overall control of Wales.
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - General Election 2010
The Democratic Unionist Party, Largest Party of in the Northern Irish Assembly and Largest Northern Irish Party in Westminster.
The DUP should have been going into this election with 9 incumbents however with the entire Iris Robinson Saga they are already down a seat.
The DUP will have problems from both sides of the Community in Northern Ireland but it is a strong possibility they will remain as the top Northern Irish dog in Westminster
1) The Best Offence is a Strong Defence - The DUP don't necessarily need to gain any more seats in this election merely hold onto what they already have. As with Lady Hermon in Down North and Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Sinn Fein and the UUP are already under threat. The main threat the DUP face is the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) as Jim Allister is considered a Heavyweight in terms on Unionist Politics and with Ian Paisley retiring and Peter Robinson embattled by his personal life, the TUV looks set to take possibly one seat from the DUP whose big guns are silenced.
2) Keep Calm - With the UUP tied to the Tories and the TUV viewed as Hardline the DUP have a chance now to renew their image by presenting themselves as a true Northern Irish Party which is working to fix the problems of Northern Ireland, to do this they must not fall back into old habits of Sectarian driven politics, if they can achieve this it will make them a more appealing ally to Lab/Con if they lack an overall majority by 9 or less seats (lacking a majority by 10 or more seats makes LibDems or the Celtic Bloc Kingmakers)
3) Avoid the two big dogs - If the DUP can avoid being overly critical of Labour and the Conservatives it again makes them a more appealing.
4) Build a Bridge - Before the current assembly it was the UUP and SDLP who were the big players, now its the DUP and Sinn Fein, if the DUP want to be kingmaker for Labour they need to be able to work with the SDLP more, this would benefit the SDLP by making them seem like the people who can look past the traditional divide and in the Assembly election in 2011 the SDLP could make gains against Sinn Fein by either forcing Sinn Fein to lessen their stances in some areas or more into the Hardline fringe with the TUV.
5) Annoy the Celtic bloc - Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones made a huge fuss about being excluded from the Leaders Debates, the DUP have more seats then either of the parties (DUP 8, SNP 6, Plaid 3) Robinson should push to challenge both of them on screen. This would serve many purposes; Reminder that it could be Northern Ireland not Scotland/Wales who have the keys to number 10, Bring Northern Irish Politics further into the UK mainstream, Humiliate the Celtic Bloc after their threats to sue over the Leader's Debates (Robinson didn't say much about them which makes Salmond and Jones look a bit stupid since they have less seats) and Give Robinson chance to be seen outside typical battle with Sinn Fein and increase his profile in the UK-wide Political scene
I feel if the DUP play this election right they could be in a great position not just in Westminster but in the Lead up to the Assembly election next year, your thoughts?
The DUP should have been going into this election with 9 incumbents however with the entire Iris Robinson Saga they are already down a seat.
The DUP will have problems from both sides of the Community in Northern Ireland but it is a strong possibility they will remain as the top Northern Irish dog in Westminster
1) The Best Offence is a Strong Defence - The DUP don't necessarily need to gain any more seats in this election merely hold onto what they already have. As with Lady Hermon in Down North and Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Sinn Fein and the UUP are already under threat. The main threat the DUP face is the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) as Jim Allister is considered a Heavyweight in terms on Unionist Politics and with Ian Paisley retiring and Peter Robinson embattled by his personal life, the TUV looks set to take possibly one seat from the DUP whose big guns are silenced.
2) Keep Calm - With the UUP tied to the Tories and the TUV viewed as Hardline the DUP have a chance now to renew their image by presenting themselves as a true Northern Irish Party which is working to fix the problems of Northern Ireland, to do this they must not fall back into old habits of Sectarian driven politics, if they can achieve this it will make them a more appealing ally to Lab/Con if they lack an overall majority by 9 or less seats (lacking a majority by 10 or more seats makes LibDems or the Celtic Bloc Kingmakers)
3) Avoid the two big dogs - If the DUP can avoid being overly critical of Labour and the Conservatives it again makes them a more appealing.
4) Build a Bridge - Before the current assembly it was the UUP and SDLP who were the big players, now its the DUP and Sinn Fein, if the DUP want to be kingmaker for Labour they need to be able to work with the SDLP more, this would benefit the SDLP by making them seem like the people who can look past the traditional divide and in the Assembly election in 2011 the SDLP could make gains against Sinn Fein by either forcing Sinn Fein to lessen their stances in some areas or more into the Hardline fringe with the TUV.
5) Annoy the Celtic bloc - Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones made a huge fuss about being excluded from the Leaders Debates, the DUP have more seats then either of the parties (DUP 8, SNP 6, Plaid 3) Robinson should push to challenge both of them on screen. This would serve many purposes; Reminder that it could be Northern Ireland not Scotland/Wales who have the keys to number 10, Bring Northern Irish Politics further into the UK mainstream, Humiliate the Celtic Bloc after their threats to sue over the Leader's Debates (Robinson didn't say much about them which makes Salmond and Jones look a bit stupid since they have less seats) and Give Robinson chance to be seen outside typical battle with Sinn Fein and increase his profile in the UK-wide Political scene
I feel if the DUP play this election right they could be in a great position not just in Westminster but in the Lead up to the Assembly election next year, your thoughts?
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