In honour of the first 100 days of the Tory/Libdem Coalition the BBC decided to fun a feature on what if they hadn't got together (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11009623)
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Showing posts with label tory. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tory. Show all posts
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Saturday, 17 July 2010
The Valley of Death for the Liberal Democrats
Today Nick Clegg announced in a speech that he believed that by the end of this Parliament we would have a "Liberal Britain", Problem is I doubt the Liberal Democrats will be apart of it.
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
Friday, 9 April 2010
The Liberal Democrats - General Election 2010
The Liberal Democrats, the UK's third Party, the other guys, the Under-underdogs....
Going into this election Nick Clegg (anyone ask who that is and I will have to hit you with a shovel) said he wanted to be Prime Minister, sadly for this ambitious LibDem he hasn't a hope, but just because Little Nicky won't achieve his dream doesn't mean it's all over for the LibDems.
As many of the pollsters are predicting we may have a Hung Parliament as the grand result of this General election, The Lib Dems must ensure this if they wish to move up in the world. With a Hung Parliament Little Nicky, whose been mocked time and time again for being the invisible man of the UK political scene, will be the King Maker and the keys to power will rest with the Liberal Democrats. If it seems like i'm stating the obvious, I am, got to cover as much as I can, makes me seem more clever.
To achieve the hung parliament here is what I think the Lib Dems need to do.
1) Defend the Southwest from the Tory advance - an obvious one to start off with but if the Lib Dems lose the south west it may knock them down to the same level as the Celtic Bloc and Northern Irish parties and make them completely irrelevant for 4-5 years.
2) Attack the SNP - the SNP have set themselves a hefty target of 20 seats (at least Alex Salmond has) and are planning on bleeding Labour to get them, the Lib Dems need to go to all out war with the SNP, as since the SNP have most of the seats in the Celtic Bloc taking them out will eliminate the nationalist threat meaning the next contender for the King Maker Position would be the DUP of Northern Ireland. By breaking the SNP the Lib Dems stay as first in line to be King Maker. (Provided of course Lab/Con lack 15+ seats of and overall majority)
3) Back the other little guys - Within Tory Territory (South-east and Middle England) there lies a small army of smaller parties in constituencies where the Lib Dems sadly have very little hope. By maybe suggesting that voters should look to some of the the smaller parties to punish the Larger two for the expenses scandal and corruption. This one can potentially backfire depending on how the Lib Dems put it across as they themselves are a big party though did not take as much flak from the Expenses and aren't in enough of a position to be corrupt. Backing the little guys may hurt the Tories in their safe seats enough for Labour, UKIP or maybe an independent to nick a seat. If anything it may put the Conservatives one short of that overall majority but it's better than nothing.
4) Start talking about the Alliance party - The Alliance party are essentially the Northern Irish Lib Dems who sadly do not even have a hope of getting one seat. But every vote that is cast for them weakens the nagging sectarian headcount Northern Ireland gets into around every election and potentially could uproot some of the incumbents from supposedly safe seats. If anything this is more a Long-term idea to make the Alliance look like a credible Party as the few seats they do get in the Northern Irish Assembly give the Lib Dems some friends at the devolved level.(Assembly elections next year after all)
5) Use Charles Kennedy - The man is a legend like John Prescott, yes he was in the Political scene by his admission of a Drinking problem but that makes him the seem more human to the common voter as opposed to the squeaky clean possible cyborg that is Cameron. Also Nick right now is relying on Vince Cable a bit to much in my view, Bringing Kennedy back up gives the Lib Dems a slightly more recognisable Front Line and shows that Brown isn;t the only one with a team behind him.
6) Europe - the Lib Dems need to use the Europe rounds when in the political gunfight of this election, mainly in seats where there is a strong Con/UKIP presence not so much as a campaign issue, It's more a way to cripple the Tories as Europe seems to make Tories bicker and UKIP could use the chance to talk about their favourite subject.
7) Find the right Balance - the Lib Dems have always been a party with good ideas but never got the coverage, now in election time when the cameras are actually pointing at them Clegg is bouncing around the country with very little policy talk, just meet and greets and photo ops, The Lib Dems did well in the Chancellors debate and they need to use the press time to blast the fact that they actually have some decent policies.
I;m aware some of these are pretty obvious but it's simply to provide what I think would be a good tactical plan for the election, the Lib Dems are a big enough party that it makes it dificult to plot a detailed tactical plan as they are almost everywhere
Going into this election Nick Clegg (anyone ask who that is and I will have to hit you with a shovel) said he wanted to be Prime Minister, sadly for this ambitious LibDem he hasn't a hope, but just because Little Nicky won't achieve his dream doesn't mean it's all over for the LibDems.
As many of the pollsters are predicting we may have a Hung Parliament as the grand result of this General election, The Lib Dems must ensure this if they wish to move up in the world. With a Hung Parliament Little Nicky, whose been mocked time and time again for being the invisible man of the UK political scene, will be the King Maker and the keys to power will rest with the Liberal Democrats. If it seems like i'm stating the obvious, I am, got to cover as much as I can, makes me seem more clever.
To achieve the hung parliament here is what I think the Lib Dems need to do.
1) Defend the Southwest from the Tory advance - an obvious one to start off with but if the Lib Dems lose the south west it may knock them down to the same level as the Celtic Bloc and Northern Irish parties and make them completely irrelevant for 4-5 years.
2) Attack the SNP - the SNP have set themselves a hefty target of 20 seats (at least Alex Salmond has) and are planning on bleeding Labour to get them, the Lib Dems need to go to all out war with the SNP, as since the SNP have most of the seats in the Celtic Bloc taking them out will eliminate the nationalist threat meaning the next contender for the King Maker Position would be the DUP of Northern Ireland. By breaking the SNP the Lib Dems stay as first in line to be King Maker. (Provided of course Lab/Con lack 15+ seats of and overall majority)
3) Back the other little guys - Within Tory Territory (South-east and Middle England) there lies a small army of smaller parties in constituencies where the Lib Dems sadly have very little hope. By maybe suggesting that voters should look to some of the the smaller parties to punish the Larger two for the expenses scandal and corruption. This one can potentially backfire depending on how the Lib Dems put it across as they themselves are a big party though did not take as much flak from the Expenses and aren't in enough of a position to be corrupt. Backing the little guys may hurt the Tories in their safe seats enough for Labour, UKIP or maybe an independent to nick a seat. If anything it may put the Conservatives one short of that overall majority but it's better than nothing.
4) Start talking about the Alliance party - The Alliance party are essentially the Northern Irish Lib Dems who sadly do not even have a hope of getting one seat. But every vote that is cast for them weakens the nagging sectarian headcount Northern Ireland gets into around every election and potentially could uproot some of the incumbents from supposedly safe seats. If anything this is more a Long-term idea to make the Alliance look like a credible Party as the few seats they do get in the Northern Irish Assembly give the Lib Dems some friends at the devolved level.(Assembly elections next year after all)
5) Use Charles Kennedy - The man is a legend like John Prescott, yes he was in the Political scene by his admission of a Drinking problem but that makes him the seem more human to the common voter as opposed to the squeaky clean possible cyborg that is Cameron. Also Nick right now is relying on Vince Cable a bit to much in my view, Bringing Kennedy back up gives the Lib Dems a slightly more recognisable Front Line and shows that Brown isn;t the only one with a team behind him.
6) Europe - the Lib Dems need to use the Europe rounds when in the political gunfight of this election, mainly in seats where there is a strong Con/UKIP presence not so much as a campaign issue, It's more a way to cripple the Tories as Europe seems to make Tories bicker and UKIP could use the chance to talk about their favourite subject.
7) Find the right Balance - the Lib Dems have always been a party with good ideas but never got the coverage, now in election time when the cameras are actually pointing at them Clegg is bouncing around the country with very little policy talk, just meet and greets and photo ops, The Lib Dems did well in the Chancellors debate and they need to use the press time to blast the fact that they actually have some decent policies.
I;m aware some of these are pretty obvious but it's simply to provide what I think would be a good tactical plan for the election, the Lib Dems are a big enough party that it makes it dificult to plot a detailed tactical plan as they are almost everywhere
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