The General Election in the Republic of Ireland has been hailed as historic and a Political Massacre, as Fine Gael top the Poll to become the largest Party in the Dail while Fianna Fail are not only consigned to wander the political Wilderness but sent out bloodied and beaten.
So what now for the parties of the republic of Ireland
Fine Gael - 76 Seats
The New Big Dog of the Irish Yard. Fine Gael's massive gains won't bring them much of a political honeymoon, left with one one real option of a Coalition with Labour, Fine Gael will have to ensure that their Junior partner is kept under control, especially due to Labour's bad history in Coalitions. Fine Gael's main problems however do not reside in the political landscape of Ireland, where their historic Civil-war opponent now lies beaten, but instead in Brussels, wheere the European Heavyweights of Merkel and Sarkozy face their own national battles and will be looking to satisfy their electorate with Irish Red Meat.
Labour - 37 Seats
Labour have advanced to become the number 2 party of the Dail, not just in terms of Coalition, but also in Size. With their new size comes the promise of some power as the Junior partner in the Coalition, but Labour will have to be cautious, with the corpse of the last Junior party, The Greens, to serve as a reminder of what can happen to Junior Partners. Labour's time in Government however will not be made easy by the Hard-Left, who now take on the dual-form of Sinn Fein and it's Socialist Republicanism and the United Left Alliance and it's more traditional Socialism both of whom made historic gain of their own.
Fianna Fail - 20 seats
Fianna Fail lost 57 seats during the election, suffered high profile casualties, and took the record for the worst defeat ever for a Western government Party. Fianna Fail now a shadow of it's former glory face the task of Opposition while also rebuilding their party. There is some Solace, with the rise of the Hard-left, Opposition duties can now be effectively spilt, with Fianna Fail targeting Fine Gael and Sinn Fein and the ULA focusing on Labour. Fianna Fail may wish to consider challenging for more seats in the north, adopting a strategy similar to Sinn Fein, unfortunately with both Local and Assembly elections being held in Northern Ireland in May, Fianna Fail will have to put together a campaign quickly, even if it is only a token force.
Sinn Fein - 14 seats
Sinn Fein managed to gain over treble the seats they had going into the election, and brought Party president Baron Gerry Adams into the Dail. Sinn Fein will now most likely go after Labour, attacking them for going into Government with Fine Gael. Sinn Fein's focus however will shift to the North, where they hope to make enough gains to pull the DUP down into Second place and claim the title of First Minister for themselves. Sinn Fein will have to watch to see how the Unionists try to take on the momentum that Sinn Fein has gathered, but also will have to keep a eye on the ULA.
United Left Alliance - 5 seats
The Breakthrough of the United Left Alliance into the Dail has brought 2 Socialists, 2 People before Profit Alliance members and 1 Workers and Unemployed Action Group member. There have been talks of a Single Party being formed to capitalise on the gains the left alliance has made. They may also try to make similar gain in Northern Ireland where the parties that make up the ULA also run. The best bet for the ULA is to focus it's efforts on Labour, allowing Fianna Fail to handle Fine Gael.
The Green party - O seats
The Green Party suffered a total Wipeout in the election and will no doubt be out of the Dail for a while to come. The Green party will have to do as Fianna Fail plan to, and rebuild the party from scratch.
Irish politics has changed, only time will tell if it's for the better
Showing posts with label Labour Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Labour Party. Show all posts
Thursday, 3 March 2011
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Ed Miliband: Leader Under Threat
In the mind of a politician there is one fact that is always present, the next election date may be your expiration date, The Leader of the Opposition is however the exception to the rule. Although Ed Miliband knows, that come May 6th 2015 if he hasn't pushed Labour back into first place after the votes have been counted, he will most likely not continue as Leader, he also faces problems which threaten to bring his end much sooner.
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Once the votes are counted on January 13th and we hear the result, Ed Miliband will know how stable his leadership will be in the run-up to May. if the results end with....
Labour Victory: Ed Miliband safe till May and will be able to use win as ammunition against both the coalition and his critics
Liberal Democrat Victory: Ed Miliband will face serious question from his party considering current Lib-Dem opinion poll ratings, will make it more difficult to attack Clegg and critics of Ed will gain more support
Conservative Victory: If the Conservatives soft campaign in Oldhan still results in a Conservative win, Ed will face serious problems from within as he lost to the party that weren't even trying. Coupled with the fact that Ed's policy review has left Labour temporarily lacking policy will mean the Conservatives will be able to launch a full on attack on Labour allowing Lib Dems some breathing space.
Green/English Democrat/Pirate/BNP/UKIP/MRLP/BPEP Victory: If any of the 'Others' win, Ed will most likely have to resign as he would have no credibility as a Leader come the next PMQ.
Alan Johnson
Many people, including perhaps Alan himself, were shocked when it was announced he would be Chancellor. Unfortunately the Shadow Chancellor knew why he was placed in the number 2 spot on the Shadow Cabinet, it was to keep Balls out. It was suggested that had David Miliband won, Ed Balls would have been Shadow Chancellor following a deal between the two, and while Ed hoped to protect his position with the Party loyalist Johnson, Johnson is most likely not happy to be put in the position of having to fight economics when he is not an expert on the subject. With some already public disagreements on policy during Ed Miliband's first 100, Alan is now falling behind Ed, but the fact remains Ed's first 100 days as leader were marred by Johnson.
David Miliband
With rumours aplenty about a possible merger between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives and a current policy review rebuilding Labour's manifesto, some have called for Ed Miliband to simply sit back and allow the Coalition obsessed media and shunned wings with the Government to damage themselves. Sadly this idea had already been taken by David Miliband. After his defeat David took to the backbenches with the only major public statement being that he would not be accepting the role as ambassador to the US. David has in fact done nothing, He has simply set up shop on the sidelines and watched his Brother go. Either it is a testament to the skill David has a politician or the problems that Ed has faced but some have already been questioning whether the right Miliband is leading Labour. It is perhaps the most chilling message an Older Brother can give to his Younger sibling, 'I'll be waiting'. Unlike Ed, David has no unwanted problems threatening to cut his time short, he has until the next General election and is in safe seat and with David doing absolutely nothing, it is all on Ed.
For Ed the next 6 months will decide if he remains as Leader, a doubtful performance and Labour can afford to replace him as they sit in Opposition.
How has Ed done so far? will he make it to the end of the year? what's your view?
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Once the votes are counted on January 13th and we hear the result, Ed Miliband will know how stable his leadership will be in the run-up to May. if the results end with....
Labour Victory: Ed Miliband safe till May and will be able to use win as ammunition against both the coalition and his critics
Liberal Democrat Victory: Ed Miliband will face serious question from his party considering current Lib-Dem opinion poll ratings, will make it more difficult to attack Clegg and critics of Ed will gain more support
Conservative Victory: If the Conservatives soft campaign in Oldhan still results in a Conservative win, Ed will face serious problems from within as he lost to the party that weren't even trying. Coupled with the fact that Ed's policy review has left Labour temporarily lacking policy will mean the Conservatives will be able to launch a full on attack on Labour allowing Lib Dems some breathing space.
Green/English Democrat/Pirate/BNP/UKIP/MRLP/BPEP Victory: If any of the 'Others' win, Ed will most likely have to resign as he would have no credibility as a Leader come the next PMQ.
Alan Johnson
Many people, including perhaps Alan himself, were shocked when it was announced he would be Chancellor. Unfortunately the Shadow Chancellor knew why he was placed in the number 2 spot on the Shadow Cabinet, it was to keep Balls out. It was suggested that had David Miliband won, Ed Balls would have been Shadow Chancellor following a deal between the two, and while Ed hoped to protect his position with the Party loyalist Johnson, Johnson is most likely not happy to be put in the position of having to fight economics when he is not an expert on the subject. With some already public disagreements on policy during Ed Miliband's first 100, Alan is now falling behind Ed, but the fact remains Ed's first 100 days as leader were marred by Johnson.
David Miliband
With rumours aplenty about a possible merger between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives and a current policy review rebuilding Labour's manifesto, some have called for Ed Miliband to simply sit back and allow the Coalition obsessed media and shunned wings with the Government to damage themselves. Sadly this idea had already been taken by David Miliband. After his defeat David took to the backbenches with the only major public statement being that he would not be accepting the role as ambassador to the US. David has in fact done nothing, He has simply set up shop on the sidelines and watched his Brother go. Either it is a testament to the skill David has a politician or the problems that Ed has faced but some have already been questioning whether the right Miliband is leading Labour. It is perhaps the most chilling message an Older Brother can give to his Younger sibling, 'I'll be waiting'. Unlike Ed, David has no unwanted problems threatening to cut his time short, he has until the next General election and is in safe seat and with David doing absolutely nothing, it is all on Ed.
For Ed the next 6 months will decide if he remains as Leader, a doubtful performance and Labour can afford to replace him as they sit in Opposition.
How has Ed done so far? will he make it to the end of the year? what's your view?
Thursday, 9 September 2010
The Shadow Labour Cabinet Tactical Assessment
With the Labour Conference drawing nearer, Labour will soon have it's new leader but also the Parliamentary Labour Party will choose which MPs the New Leader will get to form their Shadow Cabinet.
Obviously with a Leadership contest on, this could mean that whoever wins will have to form a Cabinet including all 4 of their defeated Rivals. But would these Leadership contenders be an asset or a hindrance to the Leader of the Opposition.
Andy Burnham - When it comes to the Former Health Secretary let's be honest, he hasn't a hope of becoming Leader and I think he knows it, He will hope to use his participation in the Leadership contest to ensure his place in the Shadow Cabinet, though he may find himself with a low profile portfolio. Asset to the New leader as the Leadership contest has raised his profile making him more recognisable to the Public.
Ed Miliband - The Former Energy Secretary, though one of the more likely winners of the Leadership contest he is almost guaranteed a place in the shadow cabinet with his popularity among Labour supporters. For anyone but David Miliband, Ed will probably be cast a very long shadow over the leader with his High Profile, If David wins the Leadership however expect to see Ed with a High Profile Portfolio, possibly even the foreign brief.
Diane Abbott - Unlikely to win the leadership but may place well due to the voting system in place, if she can parley her popularity into a Shadow Cabinet seat it would be a create win for the Labour Left. Her Career and leadership bid are based around her being outside the established Labour, being part of the Shadow Cabinet she could be a problem for any Leader due to her more maverick nature. Likely to be given the Equality brief depending on if Yvette Cooper is still in the Shadow Cabinet if Ed Balls wins, whether her would move his wife. On the plus side she has a very high profile with the public thanks to her numerous television appearances.
Ed Balls - Ed Balls looks likely to become the next economics powerhouse of the Labour Party, it has already been suggested that he a David Miliband have an agreement which would install Mr Balls in the Shadow Chancellorship though he would also be useful in education where he already crippled Education Gove in the first weeks of the Coalition government over the School's list with battering attacks. Likely to be an Asset to any Leader in regards to his combative ability which he has maintained even while running a leadership Campaign. Though he will is likely yo be a stubborn force within the Shadow Cabinet much like Brown was for Blair in government.
David Miliband - If neither Miliband win expect David to considered a serious threat to whosoever occupies the Leadership, He was the one pushed to topple Brown and any leader will face huge difficulties in trying to give David a portfolio which is not Frontline. David would most likely wish to hold onto his foreign brief where he already has experience and a good reputation on the International Stage. Though a potential threat his High Profile is an asset to the opposition and the threat of him may act as encouragement for the New Leader to work harder.
The Shadow Cabinet will be without Jack Straw and Alistair Campbell who have both decided to withdraw to the back Benches, and the Labour Party have guaranteed that at least six women will be in the shadow Cabinet. Harriet Harman will remain as Deputy leader obviously, but will Ed Balls' wife Yvette Cooper make the cut?
Obviously with a Leadership contest on, this could mean that whoever wins will have to form a Cabinet including all 4 of their defeated Rivals. But would these Leadership contenders be an asset or a hindrance to the Leader of the Opposition.
Andy Burnham - When it comes to the Former Health Secretary let's be honest, he hasn't a hope of becoming Leader and I think he knows it, He will hope to use his participation in the Leadership contest to ensure his place in the Shadow Cabinet, though he may find himself with a low profile portfolio. Asset to the New leader as the Leadership contest has raised his profile making him more recognisable to the Public.
Ed Miliband - The Former Energy Secretary, though one of the more likely winners of the Leadership contest he is almost guaranteed a place in the shadow cabinet with his popularity among Labour supporters. For anyone but David Miliband, Ed will probably be cast a very long shadow over the leader with his High Profile, If David wins the Leadership however expect to see Ed with a High Profile Portfolio, possibly even the foreign brief.
Diane Abbott - Unlikely to win the leadership but may place well due to the voting system in place, if she can parley her popularity into a Shadow Cabinet seat it would be a create win for the Labour Left. Her Career and leadership bid are based around her being outside the established Labour, being part of the Shadow Cabinet she could be a problem for any Leader due to her more maverick nature. Likely to be given the Equality brief depending on if Yvette Cooper is still in the Shadow Cabinet if Ed Balls wins, whether her would move his wife. On the plus side she has a very high profile with the public thanks to her numerous television appearances.
Ed Balls - Ed Balls looks likely to become the next economics powerhouse of the Labour Party, it has already been suggested that he a David Miliband have an agreement which would install Mr Balls in the Shadow Chancellorship though he would also be useful in education where he already crippled Education Gove in the first weeks of the Coalition government over the School's list with battering attacks. Likely to be an Asset to any Leader in regards to his combative ability which he has maintained even while running a leadership Campaign. Though he will is likely yo be a stubborn force within the Shadow Cabinet much like Brown was for Blair in government.
David Miliband - If neither Miliband win expect David to considered a serious threat to whosoever occupies the Leadership, He was the one pushed to topple Brown and any leader will face huge difficulties in trying to give David a portfolio which is not Frontline. David would most likely wish to hold onto his foreign brief where he already has experience and a good reputation on the International Stage. Though a potential threat his High Profile is an asset to the opposition and the threat of him may act as encouragement for the New Leader to work harder.
The Shadow Cabinet will be without Jack Straw and Alistair Campbell who have both decided to withdraw to the back Benches, and the Labour Party have guaranteed that at least six women will be in the shadow Cabinet. Harriet Harman will remain as Deputy leader obviously, but will Ed Balls' wife Yvette Cooper make the cut?
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