Within the components of the UK there are a vast array of differing opinion when it comes to issues like the Union, Devolution and Independence...
So let's pose a hypothetical (It's what is done on this blog mainly), It's September 1st 2010 (tomorrow from when i'm writing) and after an emergency meeting the night before between the cabinet and the devolved executive bodies it has been decided that the UK will break up..what now?
As an added feature in respect of it's Celtic heritage, Cornwall is an additional part along with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England.
Outcome 1) Five Nations: Every part of the former UK decides to become a fully independent state;
Scotland would most likely retain the Monarchy and would probably be able to draw in investment with it's status as a source of Oil, though the Scottish Economy would most likely be the strongest of the Celtic Nations leaving the UK
Wales may retain the Monarch but may also shift to a President (an Idea would be to ask that the title of Prince of Wales pass to Prince Harry to separate the Monarchy), It would have to reinvest heavily in tourism, Light manufacturing and agriculture to rebalance it's economy
Cornwall may install the Duchy of Cornwall as it's head of state (though again an idea would be to ask that it passes to Prince Harry so as to separate the Duchy from the Monarchy) Cornwall's economy would be reliant on tourism but as they already qualify for EU poverty funding money would be entering the Cornish economy to stimulate an independent Cornish economy (NOTE: Relies on Cornwall Remaining in EU)
Northern Ireland, due to it's current Unionist Majority would not reunite with the republic, It's economy would face a huge problem with rebalancing and moving away from the public sector, Reinvestment in Engineering and Heavier Industries would be it's safest move due to the and educational strength in those fields, The Monarchy may not be kept by Northern Ireland and perhaps they would install their own President as a concession to Irish republicans.
England would most likely benefit with it's economy already being the 18th highest GDP PPP and no longer having to cover the Celtic Nations, It would also enjoy a stronger position in Foreign affairs thanks to this and it's size in comparison to the Celtic Nations, The Monarch would most likely remain as England alone would provide a large Tory majority (using current seats)
2)Patchwork Unions: This outcome would see the establishment of 4 entities existing within the British Isles.
a)England (see previous outcome for economical)
b)Scotland
c)United Ireland
d)Welsh/Cornish Union
England and Scotland would be viable enough economically to survive on their own and thus may not see any benefit to Uniting with any of the others.
United Ireland would make geographical sense and with the promise of greater influence Ulster Unionists may see it as their best bet to reshape the Northern Irish economy.
Welsh/Cornish Alliance although perhaps a surprising idea would make sense in soem regards, Both are fishing nations, Rely partially on tourism and quite geographically close, could also see the development of a strengthen small boat industry with travel between the two.
Perhaps an Unlikely outcome but plausible
3)England and the Celtic Union: As the name suggests this outcome would see the formation of a Celtic Union with England remaining on it's own.
The Celtic Union would most likely be formed with all the former UK Celtic countries and the Republic of Ireland, With the Republic of Ireland and Scotland being the dominant economic powers. This would also allow Northern Ireland to Unite with the rest of Ireland without ceasing to exist. Although a Celtic Union would most likely run on a Federal system it would likely require some economic aid from Scotland and the republic of Ireland to help rebalance the other Celtic economies. The Monarchy would most likely be replaced by a President, either within a new office or simply expanding the Role of the Irish President to encompass all the Celtic Union.
This outcome would be more likely as it would provide the Celtic Union a bit more clout in Foreign Affairs and offer a fresh debate on EU membership.
4)The Ulster-Scot Union, Welsh/Cornish bloc and England
A slight tweak to the 'Patchwork Unions' outcome in that Northern Ireland would join with Scotland due to their similarities culturally and a generally very close relationship, would again require Scotland to help Northern Ireland rebalance it's economy
There are many different possibilities for potential outcomes, What do you think?
Monday, 30 August 2010
Sunday, 29 August 2010
Slow Death of The PUP
The UVF linked Progressive Unionist Party has over the last few months seen it's Heavyweights slowly drift away from the Party.
First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.
The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.
The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.
If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.
Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.
One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.
A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.
As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact
First Dawn Purvis the Leader and the only PUP Assembly member left following the killing of Bobby Moffett on the Shankhill Road in Belfast, which was blamed on the UVF. Now David Rose who is a member of the Policing Board has also left after 'Reflection' following the murder and citing that the party was drifting in the direction of Being Conservative.
The PUP is not one of the major players in the Northern Irish Political Landscape, finding most of their support in Belfast among working class voters. However this slow bleed of the Party's heavyweights presents an opportunity for one of the Main UK Parties.
The PUP are supposed to be a Left/centre-Left party but if it is true that they are drifting to the right Labour are being presented with a potential seat in the Assembly. Dawn Purvis still holds her seat and considering the fact she was the leader of a party at one point it is possible she shall retain her seat next year.
If she can be convinced to sign up with Labour it could be viewed as a huge coup for Labour in gaining seats ahead of the Tories whose main allies, the UUP, are running a leadership election with two candidates both expressing anti-Link views effectively killing the UCUNF experiment on the eve of the Link-ups first assembly election.
Though Labour would only have one seat it would provide them with an Experienced Northern Irish politician in a position outside the Executive which would give them a greater platform to try and create a more Labour Friendly Northern Ireland come the Next General Election.
One aspect labour would have consider is the direction their new leader takes them in, a centre-left Blairite catch all labour would face problems from not only Unionism, which is neither left or right, Nationalists, who have socialist DNA but also Fianna Fail, a centre left catch all party just starting to set up shop as well.
A Left Labour may be able to find a niche in Belfast and a deal with the SDLP could put extra pressure on Sinn Fein and the DUP with a party who have clout in both Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.
As always this is speculation and theory not solid fact
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Possible UK Coalition Deals
In honour of the first 100 days of the Tory/Libdem Coalition the BBC decided to fun a feature on what if they hadn't got together (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11009623)
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Although they discussed a Tory minority they very briefly touched upon any other make up of a coalition they focused mainly on the Lib Dems and their internal divisions.
I disagree with this approach and so shall provide a few different coalition make ups with perhaps overly simplistic deals
Current Parliament make up - Conservatives (C)-305 , Labour (L)-256, LibDem (LD)-57, (DUP)-8, (SNP)-6, Sinn fein-EXCLUDED, Plaid Cymru (PC)-3, (SDLP)-3, Alliance (A)-1, Green (G)-1, Lady Hermon (LH)-1
Seats needed for majority - 321 (taking into account Sinn Fein, Speaker and Deputies)
1- L/LD/DUP/Hermon=322- A Lab/Lib Coalition backed up by a Joint Unionist contingent of the Independent lady Hermon and the DUP, Lady Hermon during her time in Westminster has often voted with labour and was seen as Left wing within the UUP when she was a member it would most likely be quite easy to convince her to support if not join a Lab/Lib coalition. The DUP meanwhile could be tempted to joint he coalition with a number of methods, firstly by joining government and tackling the UK's problems they could be seen in northern ireland as legitmately trying to bring Northern Ireland closer to the UK mainstream and would score major points with Unionists, relying on solely Northern Irish MPs would mean any coalition would simply have to lessen the cuts on northern ireland which was already deemed to less of a target due to potential dissident feeling, therefore PR+Power+Preferential Budget could build this majority.
2- L/LD/SNP/PC=322- Lab/Lib again only this time back up by the 'Celtic Bloc'. With Plaid already in Coalition with Labour in the Welsh Assembly it would be logical to assume the One Wales government could work together. Plaid would most likely ask for funding system reform which Labour supports. SNP could be brought in with promise of Devolution MAX by end of the parliament as a compromise from their stance on independence. All four parties are left of Centre meaning likely policy agreement.
3-L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP=325- Option 2 only bringing in the SDLP, as a Labour sister party it is logical to conclude they would support Labour, PR bonus to boost them against Sinn Fein in similar way to the DUP in option 1. Could Prompt more Co-operation from Plaid as they would not necessarily be needed.
4-L/Ld/SNP/PC/SDLP/A=326- Same again only including the Alliance party (libdem sister party) has added bonus of being parliamentary majority if Sinn Fein and Speakers were included. To add to options 2 and 3, SNP given Scottish Ministry, PC given Wales, SDLP given Northern Irish office and Alliance given Communites, give all parties a Cabinet seat with relevancy to their geographical support and Alliance communities as they the PR boost to the building communites across the UK would strengthen them in coming assembly election.
5-(The Anti-tory Alliance) L/LD/SNP/PC/SDLP/A/G/Hermon=328- An anti-tory rainbow alliance, All involved are of the left so ideology conflict would be less of a problem, DUP probably wouldn't work with nationalists and may sign on with the Conservative splitting parliament 328/314. Not Necessarily coalition of all parties but broad agreement to support Centre-left Government if full coalition was agreed include seats from option 4 and include Greens with Enviroment and Lady Hermon in Senior Position if not Cabinet.
6- L/LD/SDLP/PC/A/(H/G)=321- Majority using the sistrer parties and One Wales government with either Lady Hermon or the Sole Green MP. Removes the more radical nationalist of the SNP and built on solid relationships.
There is no other probable coalition other than Con/Lib that results in Conservative led majority.
If you find yourself reading an article on the coalition you will often find it said that 'A lab/lib coalition would be scurrying for votes on every issue' treat it as bollocks... strong words I know but take into account some facts
Despite what the news says, only 321 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority
Lab/Lib brings 313 seats 8 short of majority
the SDLP and Alliance party are the sister parties of Lab/Lib (4 seats in total)
The DUP are Nationalist in the same way as Plaid, they don't want out of UK they just want best deal for Northern Ireland.
The DUP are the only party other than libdem that would be likely to sign up with the Conservatives, this gives them 313 seats.
The SNP and Plaid form the Celtic bloc. (9 Seats)
Labour and Plaid are already in coalition in Wales.
A Coalition agreement would set out how the coalition would function within the parliament, there would be very little scurrying for votes as the parties would already know what the plan is ahead of time
Sunday, 15 August 2010
How Labour and Conservatives can run in Northern Ireland?
Northern Ireland in the Political Landscape of the UK is an oddity to say the least. Generally Northern Ireland is left to it's own devices and the Major UK parties take a slim interest in the power struggles for Stormont.
The Tories, Bless their cotton socks do make a small effort when it comes to Northern Ireland, They run a few candidates during assembly elections and occasionally link up with the UUP. (Though the UUP+Tory formula does not equal results) If the Tories decided to make a concentrated effort on Northern Ireland they could possibly take a few seats. To get seats though they would need to decide how they would squeeze into the battle;
UUP: The UUP going into 2011 will have a brand new Leader, Zero Westminster seats and no momentum going into the Assembly Elections, Perhaps the Approach Cameron should take is Being the Vulture to the UUP's Corpse, Take the Centre right members of the UUP for the themeselves and leave the DUP and TUV to fight over the leftover Unionists.
Sinn Fein: A difficult plan but it would really depends on how the Tories played it. Cameron has expressed his dislike for McGuinness so it would probably appeal to Cameron to dismantle Sinn Fein's Power. If the Plan of Attack was to point out the Irish schools issue and EU Agriculture Fine as examples poor governance by Sinn Fein and combine it with drawing focus to the fact that during the Recession Sinn Fein spent money running a general election campaign when they had never any intention of taking their seats and back it up with shots on Expenses which Sinn Fein drew Universal ire from every other party for, Cameron could shift support to the SDLP. Admittedly going after Sinn Fein would serve to to weaken an enemy rather than gain Cameron Seats but in the long run it could remove Sinn Fein from politics and allow more Tory friendly parties to take the seats at Westminster.
DUP: The Big Dog in the yard and probably the best left alone, with the DUP having the TUV barking at the doghouse and the Robinson saga they would be in no mood to dance with the Tories.
SDLP: Simple one, the SDLP are the Labour party of Northern Ireland, so if it's played just like that the Tories could then argue to be 'Normalising' politics in Northern Ireland.
In the end they will just have to run and hope.
Labour on the other hand haven't ran candidates, there are Labour parties just not the UK one. I think attempting some sort of official Deal with the SDLP (and possibly Irish Labour party) would be their best bet, creating a Labour Party of sorts of the whole of the British isles would win alot of fans on the left and allow for policies to be calibrated to maximise their effect over two economies.
I personally would love to see one or two seats won by the main parties, I think it would make the assembly more interesting and nudge Stormont towards mainstream politics of the UK.
There are three obstacles in the way however, Sinn Fein, The DUP and Fianna Fail. The DUP will not like the idea of the two big British parties playing in what is effectively their domain and will most liekly fight with everything they have to prevent any victory, Fianna Fail who are setting up shop in Northern Ireland will not be warm to even more competition to the voters they are trying to woo.
Just a little speculation on my part...
The Tories, Bless their cotton socks do make a small effort when it comes to Northern Ireland, They run a few candidates during assembly elections and occasionally link up with the UUP. (Though the UUP+Tory formula does not equal results) If the Tories decided to make a concentrated effort on Northern Ireland they could possibly take a few seats. To get seats though they would need to decide how they would squeeze into the battle;
UUP: The UUP going into 2011 will have a brand new Leader, Zero Westminster seats and no momentum going into the Assembly Elections, Perhaps the Approach Cameron should take is Being the Vulture to the UUP's Corpse, Take the Centre right members of the UUP for the themeselves and leave the DUP and TUV to fight over the leftover Unionists.
Sinn Fein: A difficult plan but it would really depends on how the Tories played it. Cameron has expressed his dislike for McGuinness so it would probably appeal to Cameron to dismantle Sinn Fein's Power. If the Plan of Attack was to point out the Irish schools issue and EU Agriculture Fine as examples poor governance by Sinn Fein and combine it with drawing focus to the fact that during the Recession Sinn Fein spent money running a general election campaign when they had never any intention of taking their seats and back it up with shots on Expenses which Sinn Fein drew Universal ire from every other party for, Cameron could shift support to the SDLP. Admittedly going after Sinn Fein would serve to to weaken an enemy rather than gain Cameron Seats but in the long run it could remove Sinn Fein from politics and allow more Tory friendly parties to take the seats at Westminster.
DUP: The Big Dog in the yard and probably the best left alone, with the DUP having the TUV barking at the doghouse and the Robinson saga they would be in no mood to dance with the Tories.
SDLP: Simple one, the SDLP are the Labour party of Northern Ireland, so if it's played just like that the Tories could then argue to be 'Normalising' politics in Northern Ireland.
In the end they will just have to run and hope.
Labour on the other hand haven't ran candidates, there are Labour parties just not the UK one. I think attempting some sort of official Deal with the SDLP (and possibly Irish Labour party) would be their best bet, creating a Labour Party of sorts of the whole of the British isles would win alot of fans on the left and allow for policies to be calibrated to maximise their effect over two economies.
I personally would love to see one or two seats won by the main parties, I think it would make the assembly more interesting and nudge Stormont towards mainstream politics of the UK.
There are three obstacles in the way however, Sinn Fein, The DUP and Fianna Fail. The DUP will not like the idea of the two big British parties playing in what is effectively their domain and will most liekly fight with everything they have to prevent any victory, Fianna Fail who are setting up shop in Northern Ireland will not be warm to even more competition to the voters they are trying to woo.
Just a little speculation on my part...
Thursday, 29 July 2010
Sinn Fein Executive - The Weakest Link?
The Mandatory Coalition System of the Stormont administration has its supporters and its detractors. Often the Coalition is criticised as petty with the constituent parties trying to score cheap political points over perceived failing of their Coalition Colleagues.
But recently it has become increasing easy to criticise the Sinn Fein Front line.
Caitríona Ruane, the Education Minister has provided extra funding for Irish Medium schools with many seats unfilled while denying funds to integrated schools who are forced to turn pupils away, saying that the money is not there for the expansions schools seek while essentially setting up 4 new schools instead.
Michelle Gildernew, The Agriculture minister has cost Northern Ireland funding that it needs during this time of economic recovery due to the shambolic apporach to Farmers and EU grants which has incurred Northern Ireland millions in fines which will be applied to future funding.
With Sinn Fein MP Expenses coming under renewed fire from Westminster, Assembly Elections on the way and Fianna Fail setting up shop in Northern Ireland it is not unfeasible to say the Sinn Fein have some pressure on them.
Potentially the problems the Sinn Fein Executive have planned are part of a scorched earth strategy, setting up schools that will likely need to be closed due to lack of pupils and have problems with the EU needing to be resolved and then switching the ministerial briefs when the d'hondt system comes in. With some predicting Sinn fein advancing to be the biggest party they would have first pick of pretty much any ministry they liked.
However the problem Sinn Fein may face is that everyone has seen them setting up the pyres and this could backfire with Sinn Fein loses (they have already lost one due to boundary changes) forcing Sinn Fein into ministries that either lack importance or have been set to blow by Sinn Fein themselves.
But recently it has become increasing easy to criticise the Sinn Fein Front line.
Caitríona Ruane, the Education Minister has provided extra funding for Irish Medium schools with many seats unfilled while denying funds to integrated schools who are forced to turn pupils away, saying that the money is not there for the expansions schools seek while essentially setting up 4 new schools instead.
Michelle Gildernew, The Agriculture minister has cost Northern Ireland funding that it needs during this time of economic recovery due to the shambolic apporach to Farmers and EU grants which has incurred Northern Ireland millions in fines which will be applied to future funding.
With Sinn Fein MP Expenses coming under renewed fire from Westminster, Assembly Elections on the way and Fianna Fail setting up shop in Northern Ireland it is not unfeasible to say the Sinn Fein have some pressure on them.
Potentially the problems the Sinn Fein Executive have planned are part of a scorched earth strategy, setting up schools that will likely need to be closed due to lack of pupils and have problems with the EU needing to be resolved and then switching the ministerial briefs when the d'hondt system comes in. With some predicting Sinn fein advancing to be the biggest party they would have first pick of pretty much any ministry they liked.
However the problem Sinn Fein may face is that everyone has seen them setting up the pyres and this could backfire with Sinn Fein loses (they have already lost one due to boundary changes) forcing Sinn Fein into ministries that either lack importance or have been set to blow by Sinn Fein themselves.
Saturday, 17 July 2010
The Valley of Death for the Liberal Democrats
Today Nick Clegg announced in a speech that he believed that by the end of this Parliament we would have a "Liberal Britain", Problem is I doubt the Liberal Democrats will be apart of it.
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
During the election many found themselves gripped by Clegg Fever only to discover the hopes of a Lib Dem surge was but a fever dream. Now the Lib Dems find themselves sharing the flak as the austerity cuts come into play and their grassroots have discovered allergies to coalitions with the Conservatives.
From people i've spoke to there seems to be a general consensus, "I won;t be voiting Lib Dem again" But where will all these votes go? If we saw anything during the election it was a definite rise in people interested in politics, so where will all the lib dem voters go?
I think that this presents a great opportunity for some of the smaller parties such as the Liberal Party and the Greens. With a concentrated effort on their part we could see a shift from Lib Dems to the smaller parties in the English Local and Celtic Devolved elections.
Of course the Lib Dems have already employed a measure to stay relevant in the eyes of the public, The referendum on voting reform, by holding it on the same day as the other elections the Lib Dems hope to capitalise on their position as front runners in the yes camp to hold onto their seats.
There some more problems on the horizon though.
The Lib Dems are now linked with the Tories in a way no other party (Even the UUP) is linked. Immediately this will cause problems for the small LibDem contingent in Scotland, while the Lib Dems have enjoyed minor success in Scotland, they are now in with the party that has all but given up in the elections North of the Border. With Tory surrender in Scotland all but official the Lib Dems may also find themselves punished. The only glimmer of hope would be that all the Tory voters give up on the Scottish Conservative party and back their coalition partners to make the Scottish parliament a more Friendly place, this however is extremely unlikely.
In Wales, where the party is small they face a Conservative surge which may result in their senior partner inadvertently demolishing them alongside increased pressure from Labour who will be looking to take overall control in Wales next year and a ever persistent push of Plaid Cymru who will want to make sure they stay in a position of power.
It could be said that the Liberal Democrats face the same question Labour were being asked in the General election, it's not if we're going to lose, it's "Who are we going to lose to?"
Monday, 14 June 2010
The Big 3 and their Visions for Europe
Apologies for the lack of posting, life has gotten in the way.
As reported by the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/10307734.stm) there has been some rift betweeen France and Germany on the direction of the EU specifically on debt reduction. With the new Coalition Government in Westminster I believe it is a valid view that the Big 3 of Europe (being the UK, Germany and France) want 3 entirely different European Unions
For Germany, an export driven country, I believe they wish the EU to be an economic engine, producing goods and services for the the world and bringing wealth to the EU. As Germany is a leading exporter nation it could be said provide the fuel in exporting to non-EU countries bringing in the lifeblood of the EU, Cold hard cash, to spend on shipping in products and using services provided by other EU nations enhancing the wealth of all the EU and making the EU an Economic superpower.
France however, appears to be pushing for the EU to be Bigger Government, wanting to form a new secretariat (which they will likely want a say in who runs it) to co-ordinate all of the EU member states economies for the good of the EU, evidenced by their Peer-review idea for national Budgets before they get seen in parliaments.
The UK which now has the hybrid European policy of Lib Dem Integration and Tory stand-offness makdes it seem that the UK wants a European Market. This differes fromt eh German view as the Germans will most likely want co-ordination to make sure the eu members are strong while the UK will want a slightly more laissez-faire approach to the EU market.
this ofcourse is just my personal speculation, what do you think?
As reported by the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/10307734.stm) there has been some rift betweeen France and Germany on the direction of the EU specifically on debt reduction. With the new Coalition Government in Westminster I believe it is a valid view that the Big 3 of Europe (being the UK, Germany and France) want 3 entirely different European Unions
For Germany, an export driven country, I believe they wish the EU to be an economic engine, producing goods and services for the the world and bringing wealth to the EU. As Germany is a leading exporter nation it could be said provide the fuel in exporting to non-EU countries bringing in the lifeblood of the EU, Cold hard cash, to spend on shipping in products and using services provided by other EU nations enhancing the wealth of all the EU and making the EU an Economic superpower.
France however, appears to be pushing for the EU to be Bigger Government, wanting to form a new secretariat (which they will likely want a say in who runs it) to co-ordinate all of the EU member states economies for the good of the EU, evidenced by their Peer-review idea for national Budgets before they get seen in parliaments.
The UK which now has the hybrid European policy of Lib Dem Integration and Tory stand-offness makdes it seem that the UK wants a European Market. This differes fromt eh German view as the Germans will most likely want co-ordination to make sure the eu members are strong while the UK will want a slightly more laissez-faire approach to the EU market.
this ofcourse is just my personal speculation, what do you think?
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