The Big 3 and their Visions for Europe

Apologies for the lack of posting, life has gotten in the way.

As reported by the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/10307734.stm) there has been some rift betweeen France and Germany on the direction of the EU specifically on debt reduction. With the new Coalition Government in Westminster I believe it is a valid view that the Big 3 of Europe (being the UK, Germany and France) want 3 entirely different European Unions

For Germany, an export driven country, I believe they wish the EU to be an economic engine, producing goods and services for the the world and bringing wealth to the EU. As Germany is a leading exporter nation it could be said provide the fuel in exporting to non-EU countries bringing in the lifeblood of the EU, Cold hard cash, to spend on shipping in products and using services provided by other EU nations enhancing the wealth of all the EU and making the EU an Economic superpower.

France however, appears to be pushing for the EU to be Bigger Government, wanting to form a new secretariat (which they will likely want a say in who runs it) to co-ordinate all of the EU member states economies for the good of the EU, evidenced by their Peer-review idea for national Budgets before they get seen in parliaments.

The UK which now has the hybrid European policy of Lib Dem Integration and Tory stand-offness makdes it seem that the UK wants a European Market. This differes fromt eh German view as the Germans will most likely want co-ordination to make sure the eu members are strong while the UK will want a slightly more laissez-faire approach to the EU market.

this ofcourse is just my personal speculation, what do you think?

House of Lords Reform

One of the key areas of policy that the Lib-Con Coalition will be focusing on is electoral reform. Already we have seen plans for a referendum for the AV system to be used for election to the House of Commons. but what about the House of Lords.

Apparently there are plans to reform the House of Lords, but into what is the question?
Here are a few options;

Scrap all Lords currently sitting, Election for Lords will use the traditional counties as constituencies and either AV or FPTP used to elect them. We will then have a fully elected Second chamber comprising of around 110 Lords.

Elect the Lords using fully PR and multi-member constituencies. No estimate on how many Lords we will then have.

Adopt the additional member or closed list and use a regional basis, meaning we vote for party but the Parties themselves pick who takes the seats.

I Personally would favour the first option as it lowers the number of Lords, uses a system that will not favour extreme parties and uses boundaries already in place.

The choice made by the coalition will however fundamentally change the system of Government we have in place.

Women in Cabinet?

In the first week the Lib-Con Alliance has already come under fire from two fronts.

Some of you may be wondering what the first sentence has to do with the title... well simply put both problems can be exemplified by the new Home Secretary and minister for Equality Theresa May.

Theresa May was a choice that was immediately flagged by Lesbian and Gay rights groups due to her voting record against equal rights for homosexuals in some cases such as; making the age of consent the same as heterosexuals, repealing section 28 and voting against allowing lesbians couple to have IVF treatment without a male role model.

Although some groups will have or will likely call for Theresa May to be replaced there is another section of the Rights movement who may have a problem with Theresa May being booted out;

Women's Rights Groups, already a Lib Dem MP has criticised the lack of Women in the Cabinet.

Obviously she could just be replaced by another female or simply lose her Equality portfolio to another female Minister. This looks the opening shots from the Pressure groups of the UK, trying to get a feel for the Government's reactions.

The larger question we could ask is what actually constitutes equality in terms of Cabinet picks? Theresa May's appointment was not seen as one of affirmative action but the reward of 13 years on the Conservative front bench, should minister's be thinking in terms of Race and Gender or the person's ability and experience?

I will not give my personal view on Sexuality Rights, Gender Rights or even attempt to answer the last question I posed. The answer you give is yours and it is not for me to try and influence, I shall simply lay out the facts and some possibilities.

Labour's counter-attack?

The UK now has a coalition government with David Cameron at it's head and Nick Clegg as his right hand, this government is a political beast that has not been seen since World War Two.

Labour have now been pushed onto the Opposition benches. But a theory which is being battered around by some pundits is that this is where Labour wish to be, to allow the Lib/Con alliance to take responsibility for the Budget Cuts which are no doubt on the way so as to present themselves as the "Good Guys" come May 2010.
I think however this is only one part of a much wider Labour strategem part of which was evidenced in the shadow of the general election.

As the Leader's debate came to television and the Lib Dems rose from obscurity 164 local councils in England were also being elected. In the General Election Labour haemorrhaged 91 seats from their Westminster Contingent but in the Local council elections Labour were the big winners. They managed to gain over 400 council seats while both the Tories and The Lib Dems lost over 100 each. Labour ended taking overall control of 15 councils while together the coalition parties lost control of 11.

What next?

Next Year Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have to their Assembly elections.
Currently in Scotland the SNP are the minority Government ahead of the Scottish Labour party by just 1 seat. Scotland could quite easily fall into Labour hands next year especially if they exploit the fact that there are very few Scottish Tories.
(Scottish parliament would require 60 seats for a majority SNP are on 47 Labour 46 but it is unlikely there will be overall control due to the PR system)

Wales is already governed by a Labour-Plaid Coalition, giving Labour their highest governing office at the moment. But Labour lack a majority on their own by 5 seats. I expect an all out assault on the 13 seats held by the Tories and maybe against the Lib Dems 5 seats as well.

Northern Ireland is not a stomping ground for the three main parties though they may all take some interest in the parties there are closest too hoping that their friends could tackle DUP/Sinn Fein Dominance. (Tories-UUP Lib Dem-Alliance Labour-SDLP)

If Labour were to gain minority contorl of Scotland and overall control of Wales it could make The Coalition's life that little bit harder especially for the Lib Dems who already have very little power in Wales.

The Point?

Labour managed to replace 91 MPs with over 400 new councillors; fresh blood, New Leader, better support for the National party at Council level and the prospect of gaining control of 2/3 Devolved Governments will mean that if the Coalition were to collapse anytime after the Assembly elections Labour could be in an amazingly strong position to regain Power in Westminster. Should the Coalition survive to May 2015 we could see Westminster and the Assembly election coincide with the opportunuity for Labour to take an unbelievable hold on the UK's governance.

Gordon Brown Resigns.....

During the election the media coverage was obsessed to see which major playes in the parties would get "Scalped"

The Morning after the election the biggest Scalp taken in the Westminster Campaign was that of Peter Robinson of the DUP, This Monday the 10th of majority the biggest scalp out there was taken, Gordon Brown PM.

Gordon Brown, "affectionately" called the Gordonator, the Terminator of British Politics. He was the slow moving, seemingly bulletproof Behemoth who once he had his mind set wouldn't care if a nuclear weapon was dropped on his head, he would continue on. He's been taken down by King Clegg, King-maker in Westminster.

Now as the Gordonator begins his slow march to the back benches, ready to be moth-balled and bowed up we have to ask will this bring the Progressive Alliance to power?

The Slow Death of the UUP

Although the General Election saw the First Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson lose his Westminster seat to the Alliance, it is the UUP who truly lost in Northern Ireland. This party was once one of the big two in Northern Ireland and now they have lost the little UK representation they had, have we in the last few weeks witnessed a lurch towards death for the UUP?

Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.

On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.

Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?

Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.

Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.

Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.

General Election 2010 - Possible Governments

This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.

Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.

1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.

2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.

3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.

4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.

The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.