Thursday, 10 February 2011

Labour vs Ieuan Wyn Jones

A day after I post about the possibility about a ConDem Coalition in Scotland the One Wales Government suffered a mini-implosion.

The Clash between Labour and the Plaid Cymru Leader, Ieuan Wyn Jones, has thrown some added dimensions to the upcoming Welsh Assembly Elections. Labour has said that a One Wales Government, Mark 2 isn't the only option after the election.

Evidence of why Labour seem so confident that they will not need Plaid can be seen in current opinion polls. (See the Wikipedia page on the Welsh Assembly election) Currently Labour Are sitting on 45% in the Constituency polls and 40% in the regional polls, to put that in perspective Labour won 26 seats last election with 32.2% and 29.6% of popular support, so thats an increase in support of 12.8% and 10.4% already. Labour likely believe that if they can maintain their ratings, continue to attack the Westminster Coalition and reach out to disaffect Liberal Democrat Supporters, they can gain the 5 seats they need to have majority control of the Assembly. This would obviously destroy any threat of a Plaid-led 'Rainbow Coalition'.

The attack on Deputy First Minister Ieuan Wyn Jones, was a very targeted one however, it wasn't against Plaid, simply Jones' apparent mismanagement of his economic brief. Possibly if Labour find themselves needing the support of Plaid, they will ask that Plaid remove Ieuan Wyn Jones in a Clegg-Style demand for Coalition or at the very least remove him from the Economic Brief.

Labour or ConDem?

This argument helps highlight the position that the Deputy First Minister may find himself in come, May. Should the arithmetic make a Plaid Led Government a possibility, Ieuan Wyn Jones will have to choose whether to remain as Junior Partner to Labour or strike a deal with the ConDems. It is highly unlikely that Plaid will make the 4 seat gains that they would require to only need one party to form a Coalition with (which would be the Tories) especially considering Labour's Commanding Lead in the Opinion Polls.

Plaid will most likely back One Wales Mark 2 rather than Condem support, the question is, will it be Ieuan Wyn Jones who carries on leading the Welsh Nationalists?

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