Within the components of the UK there are a vast array of differing opinion when it comes to issues like the Union, Devolution and Independence...
So let's pose a hypothetical (It's what is done on this blog mainly), It's September 1st 2010 (tomorrow from when i'm writing) and after an emergency meeting the night before between the cabinet and the devolved executive bodies it has been decided that the UK will break up..what now?
As an added feature in respect of it's Celtic heritage, Cornwall is an additional part along with Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England.
Outcome 1) Five Nations: Every part of the former UK decides to become a fully independent state;
Scotland would most likely retain the Monarchy and would probably be able to draw in investment with it's status as a source of Oil, though the Scottish Economy would most likely be the strongest of the Celtic Nations leaving the UK
Wales may retain the Monarch but may also shift to a President (an Idea would be to ask that the title of Prince of Wales pass to Prince Harry to separate the Monarchy), It would have to reinvest heavily in tourism, Light manufacturing and agriculture to rebalance it's economy
Cornwall may install the Duchy of Cornwall as it's head of state (though again an idea would be to ask that it passes to Prince Harry so as to separate the Duchy from the Monarchy) Cornwall's economy would be reliant on tourism but as they already qualify for EU poverty funding money would be entering the Cornish economy to stimulate an independent Cornish economy (NOTE: Relies on Cornwall Remaining in EU)
Northern Ireland, due to it's current Unionist Majority would not reunite with the republic, It's economy would face a huge problem with rebalancing and moving away from the public sector, Reinvestment in Engineering and Heavier Industries would be it's safest move due to the and educational strength in those fields, The Monarchy may not be kept by Northern Ireland and perhaps they would install their own President as a concession to Irish republicans.
England would most likely benefit with it's economy already being the 18th highest GDP PPP and no longer having to cover the Celtic Nations, It would also enjoy a stronger position in Foreign affairs thanks to this and it's size in comparison to the Celtic Nations, The Monarch would most likely remain as England alone would provide a large Tory majority (using current seats)
2)Patchwork Unions: This outcome would see the establishment of 4 entities existing within the British Isles.
a)England (see previous outcome for economical)
b)Scotland
c)United Ireland
d)Welsh/Cornish Union
England and Scotland would be viable enough economically to survive on their own and thus may not see any benefit to Uniting with any of the others.
United Ireland would make geographical sense and with the promise of greater influence Ulster Unionists may see it as their best bet to reshape the Northern Irish economy.
Welsh/Cornish Alliance although perhaps a surprising idea would make sense in soem regards, Both are fishing nations, Rely partially on tourism and quite geographically close, could also see the development of a strengthen small boat industry with travel between the two.
Perhaps an Unlikely outcome but plausible
3)England and the Celtic Union: As the name suggests this outcome would see the formation of a Celtic Union with England remaining on it's own.
The Celtic Union would most likely be formed with all the former UK Celtic countries and the Republic of Ireland, With the Republic of Ireland and Scotland being the dominant economic powers. This would also allow Northern Ireland to Unite with the rest of Ireland without ceasing to exist. Although a Celtic Union would most likely run on a Federal system it would likely require some economic aid from Scotland and the republic of Ireland to help rebalance the other Celtic economies. The Monarchy would most likely be replaced by a President, either within a new office or simply expanding the Role of the Irish President to encompass all the Celtic Union.
This outcome would be more likely as it would provide the Celtic Union a bit more clout in Foreign Affairs and offer a fresh debate on EU membership.
4)The Ulster-Scot Union, Welsh/Cornish bloc and England
A slight tweak to the 'Patchwork Unions' outcome in that Northern Ireland would join with Scotland due to their similarities culturally and a generally very close relationship, would again require Scotland to help Northern Ireland rebalance it's economy
There are many different possibilities for potential outcomes, What do you think?
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3 comments:
Why not a federal Britain? Then, in the longer run, a federal Europe of such smaller nations and regions?
Taking Scandinavia as an example relations between the different independent nations are generally excellent with plenty of cooperation and migration between them, so why couldn't the home nations of the UK and Eire be the same?
I agree with cornubian, I think a new federal union of the regions of Ireland and the UK would be a good thing for all involved in the long term, particularly considering we are a small english speaking bloc within an ever expanding European Union. England I think could be broken into 4 regions, not just 2 as laid out above, comprising of Greater London Norther England, Southern England and Cornwall. From my point of view as an irishman, a new union with both Northern Ireland and the UK is perhaps the best solution for all in Northern Ireland as both sides of the divide cede less this way.
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