During the election the media coverage was obsessed to see which major playes in the parties would get "Scalped"
The Morning after the election the biggest Scalp taken in the Westminster Campaign was that of Peter Robinson of the DUP, This Monday the 10th of majority the biggest scalp out there was taken, Gordon Brown PM.
Gordon Brown, "affectionately" called the Gordonator, the Terminator of British Politics. He was the slow moving, seemingly bulletproof Behemoth who once he had his mind set wouldn't care if a nuclear weapon was dropped on his head, he would continue on. He's been taken down by King Clegg, King-maker in Westminster.
Now as the Gordonator begins his slow march to the back benches, ready to be moth-balled and bowed up we have to ask will this bring the Progressive Alliance to power?
Monday, 10 May 2010
Saturday, 8 May 2010
The Slow Death of the UUP
Although the General Election saw the First Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Robinson lose his Westminster seat to the Alliance, it is the UUP who truly lost in Northern Ireland. This party was once one of the big two in Northern Ireland and now they have lost the little UK representation they had, have we in the last few weeks witnessed a lurch towards death for the UUP?
Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.
On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.
Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?
Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.
Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.
Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.
Before the election the UUP had one seat in the Commons, the much respected Lady Hermon. Then they decided on a Link-up with the Conservatives and all hell broke loss. With Lady Hermon's abandonment of the party and mini rebellions erupting within both the UUP's Council and Assembly seats Reg Empey was admittedly under pressure.
On May 7th, Reg Empey was in serious trouble.
Having decided to run himself in South Antrim he hoped to capitalise on his position as UUP leader to take a seat from the DUP and make the UUP seem more of a threat in the Assembly elections next year. Instead he may have shot his own party in the foot. Lady Hermon kept her seat as an independent, Sir Reg was defeated in South Antrim and the UUP took no seats putting them on par with the TUV and Green party of Northern Ireland. The TUV were disappointed with their lack of seats but they were the new dog in the yard and were not expected to do fantastically, the Greens can take some comfort in the election of Caroline Lucas in England, but what about the UUP, what possible excuse can be given?
Rodney Connor's loss by 4 seats to Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew also removed the guaranteed Tory Friendly unionist which makes may make the Tories incredibly peeved at their Northern Irish partner's failure and hurt them even further down the line.
Now look forward to the Assembly elections next year. Sir Reg will have to battle unbelievably hard to increase his seat share with the prospect of Sinn Fein taking the top spot, that is ofcourse assuming that Reg makes it to the election, like Peter Robinson and Gordon Brown, Reg faces possible ousting by his party in an attempt to distance themselves from the abject failure of May 6th.
Depending on when the next General election is held (in case of a coalition collapse or weak majority) next year's assembly will prove crucial for the UUP in ensuring their relevance for the next political cycle.
General Election 2010 - Possible Governments
This year's election was billed as the most exciting in recent history and the result carried on that theme.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Now the deal making begins and as a few pundits and journalists have said there are many different possible combinations for what make up of government we shall be governed by. One fact which has to be remembered is that as Sinn Fein abstain the number needed for a working majority is actually 324 rather than 326. Here are all the various combination that could be formed although some are highly unlikely.
1) Minority - Conservative (306) - If a deal is struck with the Lib Dems to not vote down the Queen's Speech the David Cameron could lead in a minority and deal with other parties on a case by case basis. This would obviously but David in number 10 but as there are very few Conservative friends in Parliament and this could seriously impede a Conservative Government's ability to rule.
2) Minority - Labour/Liberal Democrat (258/57) - If Labour and the Liberal Democrat make a coalition deal they outnumber the Conservatives, they will however still lack a majority. Something which has to be noted is that a Lab/Lib coalition would most likely be supported by the SDLP and the Alliance from Northern Ireland giving them 319 only 6 short of a working government majority of 1.
3) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/SDLP/Alliance/Celtic Bloc (258/57/3/1/9) - As I just mentioned the SDLP and Alliance support Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively, if a deal could be reached with the Celtic Bloc we would have a government with a majority of 5. The result of a Nationalist Progressive Alliance as it were could be argued to be quite stable as with a majority of 4 either the SDLP, Alliance or Plaid could disagree with the government on their own and not break the majority. The potential downside would be the demands of the SNP for their continued support. An optional extra could be the inclusion of the Green Party to buffer up the majority to 6.
4) Coalition - Labour/Liberal Democrat/DUP/Celtic Bloc (258/57/8/9) - A slightly less likely option but one which would deliver a much stronger majority of 8, If the DUP could be convinced into joining a coalition with the Celtic Bloc it would likely mean the SDLP would not join but still support Labour and the Alliance may or may not enter with the Lib Dems. Once again if the Alliance and Green were included with their single seats it would deliver a majority of 10 which would mean a single small party could disagree and not break the government.
The list could continue on and on with combinations that become even more unlikely and the negotiations would carry on till the cows come home. My view is that Labour are the more likely to form a Coalition and Conservative to go for the Minority,why? Other than Labour obviously only having the options of Coalition or Opposition is that there is a serious lack of anyone who would side with the Tories. The DUP might but they will make the Tories work for it and their co-operation does not bring a majority. Plaid have said they will talk to the Tories but with only 3 seats and a nationalist agenda they are not likely favourable in Conservative eyes. The SNP are a no go as they to are nationalist. The 3 single seaters of the Alliance, Green and Lady Hermon are all likely to side with a Lib/Lab deal making them useless to the Tories. So really Tory plans are based on some deal with the Lib Dems but don't be surprised if Labour have already ranked every other party in order of preference and are making the calls for talks.
Saturday, 17 April 2010
Green Party - General Election 2010
The Green Party, which I don't truly understand. Not their policies, they're pretty clear, it's their place in the Political battlefield of the UK.
Let us begin, if the election was last year the Greens would be very happy, New leader, the Copenhagen Debacle, it was Prime Green time, sadly that quickly passed due to the massive issue of the Economy in which the Greens are lacking in any real substance. They then ruled out working with any other party in the event of an hung parliament which I view as a mistake as with hung parliament being constantly mentioned every party should have been trying to make themselves seem approachable, at a price. So really the Greens have been removed from the field before even the Campaigns began and with their huge prediction of gaining one seat, they are now in the same league as RESPECT. If RESPECT were to somehow gain three seats in total at this election the Greens are going to be looking very very weak in terms of influence, as even with the expense scandal, the economy, Copenhagen and a myriad of other issues the greens still cannot break through. my advice to them is pretty straight forward;
1) English parliament - Campaigning for a PR elected English Parliament to increase Green officials, with 1 in Northern Ireland and 2 in Scotland they need more and more exposure and by arguing that an English Parliament could handle tackling the enviromental issues in England they could do ok.
2) Make Some friends - The Greens don't have any allies that I know off, perhaps looking at some other moderate parties could help their chances with an electoral pact.
Let us begin, if the election was last year the Greens would be very happy, New leader, the Copenhagen Debacle, it was Prime Green time, sadly that quickly passed due to the massive issue of the Economy in which the Greens are lacking in any real substance. They then ruled out working with any other party in the event of an hung parliament which I view as a mistake as with hung parliament being constantly mentioned every party should have been trying to make themselves seem approachable, at a price. So really the Greens have been removed from the field before even the Campaigns began and with their huge prediction of gaining one seat, they are now in the same league as RESPECT. If RESPECT were to somehow gain three seats in total at this election the Greens are going to be looking very very weak in terms of influence, as even with the expense scandal, the economy, Copenhagen and a myriad of other issues the greens still cannot break through. my advice to them is pretty straight forward;
1) English parliament - Campaigning for a PR elected English Parliament to increase Green officials, with 1 in Northern Ireland and 2 in Scotland they need more and more exposure and by arguing that an English Parliament could handle tackling the enviromental issues in England they could do ok.
2) Make Some friends - The Greens don't have any allies that I know off, perhaps looking at some other moderate parties could help their chances with an electoral pact.
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
SDLP - General election 2010
The SDLP, One of the parties in the Northern Ireland executive, 4th largest party of Northern Ireland.
The SDLP would love in this election to overtake Sinn Fein in seats and reclaim the position of Dominant Irish nationalist party in Westminster, Sadly as this is Margaret Ritchie first General election as Leader while Sinn Fein have both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Nationalist strongholds. However with the Unionist Pact for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein already look to lose a seat, the SDLP can only hope an agreement is not reached by the Unionists for South Belfast as well or the SDLP will most likely lose a seat as well.
Things I believe the SDLP should do during the election and after would be;
1) Unionist Civil War - Even though the DUP and UUP agreed on one Unity Candidate already doesn't Unionists are getting along, with the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) in the election fray as well and the loss of Lady Hermon for the UUP the Unionist seats will be an all out battle to see who will be the biggest Unionist Dog in the yard. The SDLP should avoid the topic too much in case to be seen as fanning the flames of discontent within the unionist community.
2) Sinn Fein - With Sinn Fein already looking like they've lost a seat the SDLP need to hammer them in the other two seats Sinn Fein have, attacking Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness would be a waste of resources, those two are firmly entrenched in their constituencies. Smart play made already by Ritchie turning down Gerry Adams' offer for a Nationalist Pact citing the hypocrisy in making a pact after bad mouthing the Unionists, made Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams (whose had a bad year already with his family problems and allegations from beyond the grave) look bad. It wasn;t a knockout punch for the SDLP but it was a clear warning shot that they want very little to do with Sinn Fein.
3) Justice - the entire devolution of Justice saga has given the SDLP ammunition against the DUP and Sinn Fein, Using that bullet at the right time could do some damage to the two parties records by highlighting how they are messing with the system to hurt the SDLP and UUP
4) New friends? - If Labour don't come out on top the SDLP should consider finding some new friends in Westminster, Possibles choices being the Celtic Bloc, Mebyon Kernow and the TUSC.
5) Early Start - as an Article in the BBC reecently said, Politics is a National Past time in Northern Ireland and the pinnacle of that is Stormont, the SDLP need to use the General election to get a running start at the Assembly election next year and pick out early targets so they can maximise their chances at moving up in the Stormont food chain. With early Prediction putting Sinn Fein as the top dog next year the SDLP have to make sure it doesn't happen at their expense.
For the SDLP the General Election will be the start of a Trial by Fire for Margaret Ritchie, If she can help build the SDLP (and knock Sinn Fein down a bit) she could become one of the Big Guns of Northern Irish politics, if She chooses to only sit in Westminster and the SDLP improve its standings she could make an interesting addition to a Labour Cabinet perhaps as the Northern Ireland Secretary (a position that may cease to exist if devolution continues). If she decided to follow Peter Robinson's idea and sit in Both Stormont and Westminster it could help her develop more of a relationship with Peter Robinson who does not get on well with McGuinness and potentially alter the entire power Dynamic of the Northern Ireland Executive and leave Sinn Fein in a similiar position as the one it is in down in the Republic of Ireland, Friendless.
The SDLP would love in this election to overtake Sinn Fein in seats and reclaim the position of Dominant Irish nationalist party in Westminster, Sadly as this is Margaret Ritchie first General election as Leader while Sinn Fein have both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness in Nationalist strongholds. However with the Unionist Pact for Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Fein already look to lose a seat, the SDLP can only hope an agreement is not reached by the Unionists for South Belfast as well or the SDLP will most likely lose a seat as well.
Things I believe the SDLP should do during the election and after would be;
1) Unionist Civil War - Even though the DUP and UUP agreed on one Unity Candidate already doesn't Unionists are getting along, with the TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice) in the election fray as well and the loss of Lady Hermon for the UUP the Unionist seats will be an all out battle to see who will be the biggest Unionist Dog in the yard. The SDLP should avoid the topic too much in case to be seen as fanning the flames of discontent within the unionist community.
2) Sinn Fein - With Sinn Fein already looking like they've lost a seat the SDLP need to hammer them in the other two seats Sinn Fein have, attacking Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness would be a waste of resources, those two are firmly entrenched in their constituencies. Smart play made already by Ritchie turning down Gerry Adams' offer for a Nationalist Pact citing the hypocrisy in making a pact after bad mouthing the Unionists, made Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams (whose had a bad year already with his family problems and allegations from beyond the grave) look bad. It wasn;t a knockout punch for the SDLP but it was a clear warning shot that they want very little to do with Sinn Fein.
3) Justice - the entire devolution of Justice saga has given the SDLP ammunition against the DUP and Sinn Fein, Using that bullet at the right time could do some damage to the two parties records by highlighting how they are messing with the system to hurt the SDLP and UUP
4) New friends? - If Labour don't come out on top the SDLP should consider finding some new friends in Westminster, Possibles choices being the Celtic Bloc, Mebyon Kernow and the TUSC.
5) Early Start - as an Article in the BBC reecently said, Politics is a National Past time in Northern Ireland and the pinnacle of that is Stormont, the SDLP need to use the General election to get a running start at the Assembly election next year and pick out early targets so they can maximise their chances at moving up in the Stormont food chain. With early Prediction putting Sinn Fein as the top dog next year the SDLP have to make sure it doesn't happen at their expense.
For the SDLP the General Election will be the start of a Trial by Fire for Margaret Ritchie, If she can help build the SDLP (and knock Sinn Fein down a bit) she could become one of the Big Guns of Northern Irish politics, if She chooses to only sit in Westminster and the SDLP improve its standings she could make an interesting addition to a Labour Cabinet perhaps as the Northern Ireland Secretary (a position that may cease to exist if devolution continues). If she decided to follow Peter Robinson's idea and sit in Both Stormont and Westminster it could help her develop more of a relationship with Peter Robinson who does not get on well with McGuinness and potentially alter the entire power Dynamic of the Northern Ireland Executive and leave Sinn Fein in a similiar position as the one it is in down in the Republic of Ireland, Friendless.
Sunday, 11 April 2010
English Democrats - General Election 2010
The English Democrats, the supposed English version of The SNP and Plaid Cymru, will they join their nationalist brethren this year in parliament?
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
1) England First? - The EngDems apparently have a deal with the Far-right/Racist England First Party and although it has been stated they differ on their views on Race, immigration and Independence it can only hurt the EngDems in the long run by hanging around with them.
2) The Celtic Bloc - If the EngDems do win a seat or two they need to join up with the SNP and Plaid, going into Westminster with only 2 seats will not get you very far (Unless one of the parties is short of an overall majority by one) but by joining the Celtic Bloc the Nationalist will be in a much better position to get what they want.
3) Target the Tories - Labour and the LibDems are more open to Devolution than the Tories so taking seats from them is hurting those most sympathetic to their cause. Also with the current polls putting the Tories in the lead but needing anywhere between 4 to 20 seats for overall control increasing their deficit makes it more likely for the Nationalist to be in a position of influence.
4) Cornwall - An issue for the Engdems next conference perhaps, is it more advantageous to support Mebyon Kernow or go against them in Cornwall? Personally I think Lab might be more inclined to set up an Assembly in Cornwall due to their seemingly regionalised outlook on lower levels of government, the Engdems will have to decide how they feel on this.
5) Pick your friends - The EngDems are currently in the Alliance with Democracy, this includes several more Right Wing parties such as the Christian party, being seen with this crowd negates the EngDems propaganda on being neither left or right just English, it also hurts their chances of linking with the Celtic Bloc who are more Centre-left.
The EngDems have to work to prove themselves as the English version of the Celtic Nationalists, if they can do that and pick their target they could potentially take a couple of Seats and change the dimensions of the nationalist representation.
Sinn Fein - General Election 2010
Sinn Fein, Second largest Party of the Northern Ireland and the only party operating on an All-Ireland basis.
Although in my last posts I have detailed what I think the Parties need to do in the General Election and in some cases what to do if they win some seats, Sinn Fein however is a different Animal in this election. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats it essentially lowers the number of actual seats, so if Sinn Fein maintain their 5 seats in Westminster it lowers the number of actual seats from 650 to 645.
In all honesty I don't think Sinn Fein should even run in this election here's why;
1) Money - with all the economic problems it seems baffling for Sinn Fein to spend so much money on a full Northern Ireland Campaign and it would be smarter for them to save their money for the Assembly Election next year
2) SDLP - the SDLP as Sinn Fein's rival for the nationalist vote would love for Sinn Fein to bow out as it would increase the Irish Nationalist representation to anywhere from 7 to 9 seats in Westminster and would make SDLP relevant, Sadly Sinn Fein don't want the SDLP relevant especially with the Assembly Election next year.
3) Voice - it's a sad fact that everywhere with a Sinn Fein MP takes away a voice from Westminster, though Sinn Fein MPs may be active in community the fact remains they don't do the basic job of representing their constituents in Westminster, which I feel is wrong.
I'm happy enough for Sinn Fein to run for Europe, Stormont and Local councils but I feel that the General election is not where they should be.
Although in my last posts I have detailed what I think the Parties need to do in the General Election and in some cases what to do if they win some seats, Sinn Fein however is a different Animal in this election. As Sinn Fein don't take their seats it essentially lowers the number of actual seats, so if Sinn Fein maintain their 5 seats in Westminster it lowers the number of actual seats from 650 to 645.
In all honesty I don't think Sinn Fein should even run in this election here's why;
1) Money - with all the economic problems it seems baffling for Sinn Fein to spend so much money on a full Northern Ireland Campaign and it would be smarter for them to save their money for the Assembly Election next year
2) SDLP - the SDLP as Sinn Fein's rival for the nationalist vote would love for Sinn Fein to bow out as it would increase the Irish Nationalist representation to anywhere from 7 to 9 seats in Westminster and would make SDLP relevant, Sadly Sinn Fein don't want the SDLP relevant especially with the Assembly Election next year.
3) Voice - it's a sad fact that everywhere with a Sinn Fein MP takes away a voice from Westminster, though Sinn Fein MPs may be active in community the fact remains they don't do the basic job of representing their constituents in Westminster, which I feel is wrong.
I'm happy enough for Sinn Fein to run for Europe, Stormont and Local councils but I feel that the General election is not where they should be.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)